TdeF 2015
- Thread starter raindog
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i think its a good parcour for quintana and contador - but i'm also going to have my 2 cents worth on froome debate
in 2012 people stataed on here that wiggo only won that tour cause froome pulled back his attack on whatever stage it was ( can't remember now) and that froome should have won that year, but those same people have never chastised froome for taking an illegal gel from richie porte, that could have blown apart his whole grand tour winning ambitions as he was very very very very close to the bonk - just saying like
in 2012 people stataed on here that wiggo only won that tour cause froome pulled back his attack on whatever stage it was ( can't remember now) and that froome should have won that year, but those same people have never chastised froome for taking an illegal gel from richie porte, that could have blown apart his whole grand tour winning ambitions as he was very very very very close to the bonk - just saying like
Hont
Guru
- Location
- Bromsgrove
I'm with Rich P and Dogtrousers, I can't see Froome being allowed to skip the Tour by the sponsors especially as most of the UK mainstream media don't even know other bike races exist. However, I can absolutely see why he would not want to ride. The course plays into the hands of Quintana and Contador particularly and I don't imagine Froome would relish braving the Sky hating hordes on Alpe D'Huez after last time either.
To those suggesting that Wiggins might ride instead: he won't.
On a more general note, I don't like courses that are tipped so much in the balance of one type of rider (TTer v Climber). We've seen from climb heavy Giros that we invariably know who is going to win after the first big climb and the gap just grows as the race goes on. Or some obvious doper suddenly reaches peak form in week 3. Or both. Either way it's not great.
To those suggesting that Wiggins might ride instead: he won't.
On a more general note, I don't like courses that are tipped so much in the balance of one type of rider (TTer v Climber). We've seen from climb heavy Giros that we invariably know who is going to win after the first big climb and the gap just grows as the race goes on. Or some obvious doper suddenly reaches peak form in week 3. Or both. Either way it's not great.
Shadow
member
- Location
- edge of the south downs
If, and I accept its a reasonably big if, CF does not ride Le Tour, Sky always have a great GC contender in L Konig - remember he finished this year 7th, 11 places higher than the top Sky rider. With a non-WT team.
DIdn't think my Froome remark would turn this thread into yet another Froome vs. Wiggo debate 
Anyway back to the Tour 2015....
What hasn't been mentioned yet is that they also changed the point system (for the Points/Green jersey), so that the winner gets more points vs. the runner-ups.
This to help the "true sprinter" take the jersey (instead of Sagan taking it a couple of years in a row now).
Has anybody has done the math yet what the result would have been this year with next year's point system?
...cause if there are still a couple of "mediujm-mountain" stages with like a Cat 3 or Cat 2 climb in the last 20km before the finish, there will still be enough points for the all-rounders like Sagan and Kristoff (I am leaving Degenkolb out of it, since he won't be able to take points in the flat sprints if he is pulling for Kittel)
Anyway back to the Tour 2015....
What hasn't been mentioned yet is that they also changed the point system (for the Points/Green jersey), so that the winner gets more points vs. the runner-ups.
This to help the "true sprinter" take the jersey (instead of Sagan taking it a couple of years in a row now).
Has anybody has done the math yet what the result would have been this year with next year's point system?
...cause if there are still a couple of "mediujm-mountain" stages with like a Cat 3 or Cat 2 climb in the last 20km before the finish, there will still be enough points for the all-rounders like Sagan and Kristoff (I am leaving Degenkolb out of it, since he won't be able to take points in the flat sprints if he is pulling for Kittel)
Pro Tour Punditry
Guru
I think Carlos Sastre will win
I had wondered that too but I'm far too lazy (and incompetent) to do it. Sort of thing @smutchin would be good at but he's still labouring over the pro-pundit scores
KneesUp
Guru
It will be interesting to see who is the Sky leader if Froome doesn't enter.
They've signed Nicolas Roche, Leopold Konig for next year. I think it unlikely they'd go with Porte after his disappointing showing this year, but they also have Neive and Thomas - but really no names that leap out. I'd guess @Shadow is right and the leader will be Konig, who looked impressive this year.
They've signed Nicolas Roche, Leopold Konig for next year. I think it unlikely they'd go with Porte after his disappointing showing this year, but they also have Neive and Thomas - but really no names that leap out. I'd guess @Shadow is right and the leader will be Konig, who looked impressive this year.
I agree that the Froome/Wiggo thing is garbage now and needs putting to bed, even if I know which side of the bed I'd be in. Sky has some serious questions to answer though and I hope DB's latest recruits were brought in because they are able to cope with a different GT season than they expected. Neither Froome nor Brad would do any good on this course, but Sky need to have a plan, because they haven't had one all season. How many times have we seen a bit of Richie, followed by a day of G, and then Swifty etc, instead of having a plan and making it work. 2012 was awesome watching the Sky train, 2013 was also pretty much there, but since then we've seen everyone blow up and leave unprotected individuals busting their balls and crashing backwards down the field. Yes I suppose other teams have stepped up their game, but DB and his ethics should have ensured their was still a point of difference. This last season has showed just how good teams who have no real GC rider can be. Cav has missed most of the season but his team have excelled without him and have almost taken the top step on the podium. We always thought of them as sprinters who could win on different courses, and always had brilliant lead out trains. Sky haven't had that in reality for a couple of years. I'm patriotic and want to see us do well. Maybe its time DB brought back a sprinter for the TDF as he has no GC rider
By the way, does anybody else also agree that the bonus seconds rule (of only using them from stage 2 to 8 seems... arbitrary
There isn't that much logic in it across the 7 stages (since the type of stages are quite different) and why stop at the 8th stage?
(I guess they are assuming the GC-race will be pretty much over after the first high-mountain stages, but still.. a little consistency in rules/regulations would be nice, instead of just "selecting the rules" they seem fit for this year)
I believe there is more interest to be gotten in the first week by choosing a good route (like they did e.g. in 2012 and it seems this year as well), then by just trowing some extra rules in (with e.g. bonus seconds).
There isn't that much logic in it across the 7 stages (since the type of stages are quite different) and why stop at the 8th stage?
(I guess they are assuming the GC-race will be pretty much over after the first high-mountain stages, but still.. a little consistency in rules/regulations would be nice, instead of just "selecting the rules" they seem fit for this year)
I believe there is more interest to be gotten in the first week by choosing a good route (like they did e.g. in 2012 and it seems this year as well), then by just trowing some extra rules in (with e.g. bonus seconds).
KneesUp
Guru
I think the bonuses are early on to encourage a bit more competition - it's a three week race so the real contenders aren't going to bust a gut for a few seconds here and there so early on - having the bonuses on the early stages means we might see a few changes of yellow jersey and a few teams competing to have it for a day or so, which all gives more publicity to the Tour and generates interest, so that when the really interesting bits start, a lot more people will be aware that the race is on. And of course more publicity means the sponsors are happier.
I am sure you are right in explaining their thinking... I was more commenting on the (lack of?) defining of the rules behind this change.
(and there are many counterarguments to be made that continuing the bonuses in the mountains/beyond 8 stages can give interesting time differences as well - as seen in Giro and Vuelta - or that editions in the past have seen enough jersey changes without time bonuses)
Also, I believe that if you have an "Ardennes-finish" 2 days in the race, that'll do the trick as well of changing the yellow jersey around on it's own.
Follow that up with a "tiny Paris-Roubaix" stage, there is again chance it'll change
(Purely because of stage choices)
Hont
Guru
- Location
- Bromsgrove
Hont
Guru
- Location
- Bromsgrove
Er...I have.
Unsurprisingly it would have made very little difference. Depending on which stages they would have called definite sprint stages and awarded the different points tally (I did it for stages 1,3,4,6,12,15,21) I get the following final totals for the top four:
Sagan 386 (-45)
Kristoff 265 (-17)
Kittel 238 (+16)
Cocquard 225 (-46)
So the only change in order is that Kittel leapfrogs Cocquard for third place. Sagan is still miles ahead and did not lose as many points as Cocquard.
It looks like one of those rule changes that no-one really thought through (like when F1 doubled the points for each position thinking it would reward the winner more). If the object is to stop it being a Sagan walkover, on this year's evidence, it won't work.