COVID: The New Normal - When and How ?

[kingrollo]

So assuming the vaccination is at least partly successful when do we return to a normal and what will that look like ?

Before the new variants I was kind on thinking end of summer we might see some sense of normality - but Im revising that downwards to March 2022

Options for the new normal:-

Scenario 1.) The vaccine works well enough, that we all take an annual jab, and covid mostly becomes a bad memory. We crowd into restaurants, pubs, nightclubs, work places much as we did before.

Scenario 2.) The vaccine partially works - but our lifestyle forever changes. Pubs become entirely different, with table service only, mass crowds at concerts and football matches - become something we used to do. Testing, Masks, and social distancing are just accepted as the way we do things - public transport and holidays abroad become niche activities
.
Scenario 3) - The vaccines have little impact, we adapt to a shorter life expectancy, and Covid is something that you can regularly die from in your 50's and 60's - and younger if you're unlucky. We social distance to reduce the impact, lockdowns become occasional in thw winter months. The vaccine/treatments slowly improve - but it takes around 10 years before we have covid under control.

thoughts ?

 

[DCLane]

We've been here before; in 1918-20. The likelihood is that Covid weakens over time to become more like a flu-variant. The length of time that takes is the question. Given we travel much more than previously I'm afraid it'll be a Scenario 3-type result.

 

[BoldonLad]

So assuming the vaccination is at least partly successful when do we return to a normal and what will that look like ?

Before the new variants I was kind on thinking end of summer we might see some sense of normality - but Im revising that downwards to March 2022

Options for the new normal:-

Scenario 1.) The vaccine works well enough, that we all take an annual jab, and covid mostly becomes a bad memory. We crowd into restaurants, pubs, nightclubs, work places much as we did before.

Scenario 2.) The vaccine partially works - but our lifestyle forever changes. Pubs become entirely different, with table service only, mass crowds at concerts and football matches - become something we used to do. Testing, Masks, and social distancing are just accepted as the way we do things - public transport and holidays abroad become niche activities
.
Scenario 3) - The vaccines have little impact, we adapt to a shorter life expectancy, and Covid is something that you can regularly die from in your 50's and 60's - and younger if you're unlucky. We social distance to reduce the impact, lockdowns become occasional in thw winter months. The vaccine/treatments slowly improve - but it takes around 10 years before we have covid under control.

thoughts ?

How about a 4th Scenario. People take more care of their health (ie more exercise, less obesity) and, we return to "true" normal. Covid will not "go away", some people will catch it, just as some people catch the flu, or fall victim to pneumonia etc. Over the years, treatment may/will, improve. Get real, we are all going to die of something, sooner or later.

 

[roadrash]

How about a 4th Scenario. People take more care of their health (ie more exercise, less obesity) and, we return to "true" normal. Covid will not "go away", some people will catch it, just as some people catch the flu, or fall victim to pneumonia etc. Over the years, treatment may/will, improve. Get real, we are all going to die of something, sooner or later.

get real, most of us prefer later than sooner

 

[kingrollo]

How about a 4th Scenario. People take more care of their health (ie more exercise, less obesity) and, we return to "true" normal. Covid will not "go away", some people will catch it, just as some people catch the flu, or fall victim to pneumonia etc. Over the years, treatment may/will, improve. Get real, we are all going to die of something, sooner or later.

Nice thought. But the queue when McDonald's re opened staggered me !

I think the unthinkable scenario 3 might become a grim reality in September.

 

[vickster]

I choose 1, but then I’m a glass more than half full optimist

 

[BoldonLad]

get real, most of us prefer later than sooner

Yes agreed, at 73 going on 74, I am aware of that, but, life is for living, not for cowering in the house. IMHO.

 

[kingrollo]

I choose 1, but then I’m a glass more than half full optimist

Yep - I'd normally go for 1...all these doomsday scenarios never come to pass.....except covid has always delivered the worst case scenario.

 

[stoatsngroats]

I suspect something similar to your option 2.
I don’t have the greatest faith in the modern vaccines, because I maybe misunderstand the RNA type of vaccine.
I don’t consider that a long term compliance from ‘the general public at large’ globally is a given, and I wonder at the international difference of vaccinated populations and unvaccinated populations, especially as movement of people is a very necessary result of the other looming issue which is maybe more risky to individuals than any strain of SARS COVID (or similar) infection.
I can’t remember where I read about some research into bat infections, but the number of strains recorded for a small population of bats in China, when extrapolated was in the 10s of thousands.
One benefit from the current global infections is undoubtedly the reduction in international travel, which may not be sufficient to prevent further global pandemics.
Apologies if this is maudlin, I sit here today, having (both I and Mrs SnG) worked the whole of last year in Healthcare, and managing to ‘miss’ becoming infected, only to learn recently that one of us is actually positive, from recent contact at work.
Isolation does have its positives ( pun intended) but it’s stopping me getting out on my wonderful Genesis CDA30!

 

[rualexander]

I'd say it'll be number 1.

Vaccinations will work to a large extent and new variants will see the vaccines fine tuned. There are only so many mutations possible in the spike protein's receptor binding domain that will maintain infectivity.

New treatments will be developed which will largely cope with those cases that vaccination hasn't controlled.

There may continue to be some severe and fatal cases but these will be at a low level.

Another pandemic will be along sooner or later that may have us looking back at covid through rose tinted spectacles.
But hopefully not before vaccine technology has made a few more leaps and bounds ahead of it.

 

[roadrash]

Yes agreed, at 73 going on 74, I am aware of that, but, life is for living, not for cowering in the house. IMHO.

your right , life is for living, but i dont know of anyone cowering in the house , i know of plenty people social distancing and sticking to lockdown rules etc, also know loads not bothering but as i said, i dont know anyone cowering in the house

 

[BoldonLad]

your right , life is for living, but i dont know of anyone cowering in the house , i know of plenty people social distancing and sticking to lockdown rules etc, also know loads not bothering but as i said, i dont know anyone cowering in the house

Yes, I am sticking to the guidelines, but, patience is wearing thin.

I know several who are suffering (mental) health issues as a result of restrictions, and, probably a few more where physical health issues are merrily developing during Covid restrictions, but, which are unknown at present.

 

[roadrash]

I agree many will be suffering mentally, and many suffering physically as a result of covid one way or the other , i just found your use of the phrase ...cowering in the house, rather odd

 

[BoldonLad]

I agree many will be suffering mentally, and many suffering physically as a result of covid one way or the other , i just found your use of the phrase ...cowering in the house, rather odd

I do know a few who are what I would call cowering in the house, ie, have not left house since March 2020.

 

[matticus]

One benefit from the current global infections is undoubtedly the reduction in international travel, which may not be sufficient to prevent further global pandemics.

Hopefully it will reduce them. and
hopefully, global travel will never recover to 2019 levels. (I'm not so sure on that one, sadly; but maybe the rise of Greta, and the rise of COVID will team up!)