COVID: The New Normal - When and How ?

[lane]

Scenario 2 I think. That's not to say that this is the best way of dealing with it, but I don't see how the hospitality and many other industries can survive on takeaways, eating outside and vastly reduced numbers. Who's going to bother going out for a nice meal when they have to take it home to eat, or sit outside in the wind? Sadly it might come down to, if you're in a vulnerable group then mixing with others might become a risk you do not want to take even in 3 years time, whilst everyone else who wants to risk it, goes back to normal

I was talking to my elderly parents and I got the impression they will never feel safe returning to normal even though they have had a vaccination and even when they get the second one. So there will be an element of that.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

View: https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Harper/status/1360713436179673099


Back to normal by Easter.

I think he's mad. I think the 63 MPs signing that are mad. Or am I wrong?

 

[DCLane]

He's mad. Basically we either deal with it now or keep yo-yo'ing in terms of cases / hospitalisations / deaths.

SWMBO's Covid rehab / live Covid wards are full. And closed to patients. There's lots that are still full.

 

[Poacher]

I wonder what the Venn diagram of the CRG and the ERG looks like.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I wonder what the Venn diagram of the CRG and the ERG looks like.

A quick glance shows Steve Baker is Chair of the ERG and on the steering committee of the CRG

 

[lane]

My MP was ERG. I don't know for sure she is CRG but she didn't vote for the latest restrictions.

Boris will cave to this pressure without doubt.

 

[BoldonLad]

Seen some reports today of restrictions lasting until the autumn; social distancing, restrictions on mixing and also a scientist saying we will have to wear masks for ever. Not being able to go on holiday for a second summer. My feeling is that compliance with these restrictions and public acceptance of them will start to wear very thin quite soon.

I think we will get to a point where people will either just accept they will never be able to go back to normal or a significant number of people will just refuse to comply. I think most likely the latter. Once people have been vaccinated and feel safer especially.

In my circle of friends and acquaintances, none compliance is becoming the "standard". This applies across the age spectrum, the younger ones are the most impatient, but, even in my age group (73), the clamour for a return to normal life is noticeable. Yes, there are risks, but, IMHO, it is inevitable, there is a difference between being alive and living.

 

[lane]

For those that think the CRG are wrong in wanting an end to all restrictions by the end of April, what criteria and timescale do you envisage for a return to normal - allowing for the fact it will presumably happen at some time - or do you think it is never?

 

[marinyork]

For those that think the CRG are wrong in wanting an end to all restrictions by the end of April, what criteria and timescale do you envisage for a return to normal - allowing for the fact it will presumably happen at some time - or do you think it is never?

Rule of six whole of 2021.
Much out of household mixing not really coming in till April.
Face coverings on public transport and other poorly ventilated settings, or when outbreaks in future occur, in the words of John Edmunds, years or "possibly forever". Face coverings in places with immunocompromised people, a very long time.
Face coverings in many indoor settings for much of 2021.
Regrettably wedding and funeral limits to continue for the whole of 2021.
Large outdoor gatherings/events possible late summer 2021 or 2022 but with numbers a lot lower numbers and precautions.
Primary schools partial reopening 8th March. Fully open end of March.
Secondary schools phased return in April.
Universities and colleges in May but not back to normal.
Hospitality outdoor dining and other things open in May if there's no silly business.
Indoor hospitality June.
Try and be as inventive and generous as possible in allowing outdoor stuff and sooner than last year where people didn't really feel safe going out till about august and then september came they headed indoors got used to it and cases went upwards and restrictions were slow to come in.
The government needs to deal with services that aren't playing ball and causing harm by having the drawbridge up. This is for me as big a problem as when non-essential stuff opens up.

The aim whatever the timescales should really try and get hospitalisations down to 1000-2000 and evidence it's still falling before opening much up and aim to get hospitalisations in double digits over the summer or even low double digits.
Try and get the true case rates down to the hundreds per day (a problem how you measure or infer this).
Genomic test all positives for strains (I believe with these numbers this is possible)
Back and forth contract tracing.

I think the criteria aren't intelligent enough. There need to be metrics from many subsectors and occupations in the economy and based on perceived risk.

The CRG have it backwards, vaccinate down to group 4 and then sort of down to age 50 and then let rip on the unvaccinated working population who physically have to go to work to serve/work alongside these over 50s. This is backwards, why not at least make some kind of more well rounded effort to vaccinate some of those workers, when evidence is emerging slowly that it does seem to stop transmission. Vaccinating a load of people in their 50s who are middle or senior managers and working from home whilst letting someone in their 40s with a very similar risk of hospitalisation be off to work is madness. You've basically designed a vaccine that helps on transmission (emerging tentative evidence) and you're saying we'll not bother utilising that and cross our fingers that the deaths drop 80-90% and the public won't care about hospitalisations. Do both groups as soon as possible and before opening everything up. There is a trixy problem with that of course in that given the vaccines are the most precious human made resource on earth, there will be a surge of people suddenly saying that they have to go to work to try and get the vaccine quicker. It's not within the witt of a government to find something that works reasonably well.

What the criteria should really be doing is to try and get us in the best place for September and wave 3 and hoping that's as small as possible and preventing a premature 3rd hump of the camel now or a 3rd wave before September. It should also be trying to stop the E484K and other mutations from being the dominant Kent strains by that time.

There's no incentive as said on the other threads about HSE inspections and no action. Each venue to be given a covid secure score that in law has to be displayed a bit like food hygiene ratings. This is a lot better than any Tamara, Deirdre and Harriet deciding that their workplace is secure just because they say so. The great british public are allowed to make their decision on whether they agree with the score by frequenting or go anyway. Action is taken in some cases on the worst offenders. Unlike now.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

there is a difference between being alive and living.

The thing with life is you have to be alive to live it.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

What the criteria should really be doing is to try and get us in the best place for September and wave 3

^^^^This

 

[matticus]

Good post. You're slightly more pessimistic than me on many points, but I'm more interested in the "shape" of the recovery than exact timescales (and none of us have crystal balls!)

There's no incentive as said on the other threads about HSE inspections and no action. Each venue to be given a covid secure score that in law has to be displayed a bit like food hygiene ratings. This is a lot better than any Tamara, Deirdre and Harriet deciding that their workplace is secure just because they say so. The great british public are allowed to make their decision on whether they agree with the score by frequenting or go anyway. Action is taken in some cases on the worst offenders. Unlike now.

Totally agree. It's been like the Wild West behind closed doors to date

 

[Ajax Bay]

Back to normal by Easter. I think he's mad. . . .Or am I wrong?
what criteria and timescale do you envisage for a return to normal - allowing for the fact it will presumably happen at some time - or do you think it is never?

The letter doesn't advocate "Back to normal by Easter." Easter is on 6 April.
I think that we need to aspire to 'return' to a new normal, rather than 'normal'. And I think a stepped approach is one which surely most people would think reasonable with milestones on, say, 8 Mar, 6 Apr and 30 Apr - well those are the ones the letter suggests.
David points out that the wards are full. I hope in 3 weeks (eg 8 March ish) they won't be. And this is why.
Cases are falling at about 25% a week and are currently (consistent testing volumes) on a 7-day average of 15k pd (that average is @ 6 Feb). If that rate of decrease is maintained (lockdown restrictions and adherence levels both unchanged and not including any vaccination kick-in effect) then by 6 Mar we might estimate new cases per day to be <5k: roughly mid-September rates.
The difference with the autumn is that by 8 March that rate will (still) be falling not rising and nearly half the adult population (26M of 54M) will have had their first dose (at least) @400k per day. And the 15M more vulnerable (Gp 1-4: to hospitalisation/serious illness and resultant death, for some) who have been vaccinated will have developed immunity (80+% effective after 14 days). Which means that even with those reduced infection rates (@5k per day) the hospital demand will, than goodness be very very much less (the most vulnerable 88% have been 'taken out' of the equation by vaccination).

 

[matticus]

"

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There is more to life than platitudes

 

[Ajax Bay]

The thing with life is you have to be alive to live it.

If only I was a cute (and as brief as) as @matticus
Saving lives was/is the primary driver behind the JCVI priority for vaccination groups. Once the first phase is complete (Gps 1-9) - and I've shared elsewhere that end April is an achievable target for that 32M, then the numbers who will suffer serious illness or death from COVID-19 is way below several other causes of death (see ONS chart below).
So from May, COVID-19 infection and its consequences various will have minimal effect on the numbers "alive to live it".
As vaccination proceeds apace, the numbers will dwindle as the UK population approaches herd immunity (end June).

Do long term restrictions adversely affect mental health? (Answer is 'yes' for me). In extremis this results in death (and who knows how much hidden long term illness).
For the unvaccinated under 50s (as at end April), again ONS commentary:
In UK the leading cause of death for males aged 35 to 49 years was suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent from 2011 to 2015, then to accidental poisoning in more recent years.
Suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent was the leading cause of death for both males and females aged 20 to 34 years in the UK, for all years observed. In 2018, there were 1,233 male deaths from suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent and 353 female deaths from suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent.