COVID: The New Normal - When and How ?

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
David points out that the wards are full. I hope in 3 weeks (eg 8 March ish) they won't be. And this is why.
Cases are falling at about 25% a week and are currently (consistent testing volumes) on a 7-day average of 15k pd (that average is @ 6 Feb). If that rate of decrease is maintained (lockdown restrictions and adherence levels both unchanged and not including any vaccination kick-in effect) then by 6 Mar we might estimate new cases per day to be <5k: roughly mid-September rates.
It's too mixed a picture. The England or UK average includes a lot of slightly more rural, suburban and more affluent areas where the case rates have dropped like a stone. Where the honourable poster comes from in another bit of yorkshire the case rates never went as high as many other areas but like where I live cases rates are falling much slower (we do have some good weeks which is very encouraging).

The hospital outlook is very lumpy and variable. For example in this region hospital admissions may take another 6 weeks to fall to very low levels with the vaccine scenario as the daily admissions are still very high and it may take weeks beyond that to bring the people staying in hospital down. What happened without the vaccine last year was a very, very slow tail off over many more weeks. Patients on mechanical ventilation is still unbelievably high unsustainable numbers in so many places.

It's a bit more nuanced in other bits of the country. New admissions to hospital in London and the South West are doing rather better than here. Individual trusts are not doing so well pretty much everywhere.
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
The thing with life is you have to be alive to live it.
True, but, life is full of risks, and, I for one do not want to spend whatever is left of my life in this lockdown state.
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
Or worrying about a young relative in ICU with Covid complications or supporting a younger friend with long Covid......
Before Covid, there was always the possibility of illness/accident, in that respect, nothing has changed, it is just one more thing that can lay you (or a loved one) low. I already have one grandchild who will probably need support for the rest of her life (nothing to do with Covid). It may be unpleasant, it may be upsetting, it may be sad, but.... it is, and always has been, part of life.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
True, but, life is full of risks, and, I for one do not want to spend whatever is left of my life in this lockdown state.
There'll be a nice summer. It's waiting longer for it is all and there can't be a free for all. That's awesome compared to what we have now.

A tough one but people weren't given vaccines so they or even more probably other non-vaccinated people could behave like knobbers. The giving stuff up will carry on, but it will get better.
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
There'll be a nice summer. It's waiting longer for it is all and there can't be a free for all. That's awesome compared to what we have now.

A tough one but people weren't given vaccines so they or even more probably other non-vaccinated people could behave like knobbers. The giving stuff up will carry on, but it will get better.
Why does it have to go from one extreme to another, can we not have any middle ground?
 

midlife

Guru
If only I was a cute (and as brief as) as @matticus :becool:
Saving lives was/is the primary driver behind the JCVI priority for vaccination groups. Once the first phase is complete (Gps 1-9) - and I've shared elsewhere that end April is an achievable target for that 32M, then the numbers who will suffer serious illness or death from COVID-19 is way below several other causes of death (see ONS chart below).
So from May, COVID-19 infection and its consequences various will have minimal effect on the numbers "alive to live it".
As vaccination proceeds apace, the numbers will dwindle as the UK population approaches herd immunity (end June).
View attachment 573948
Do long term restrictions adversely affect mental health? (Answer is 'yes' for me). In extremis this results in death (and who knows how much hidden long term illness).
For the unvaccinated under 50s (as at end April), again ONS commentary:
In UK the leading cause of death for males aged 35 to 49 years was suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent from 2011 to 2015, then to accidental poisoning in more recent years.
Suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent was the leading cause of death for both males and females aged 20 to 34 years in the UK, for all years observed. In 2018, there were 1,233 male deaths from suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent and 353 female deaths from suicide and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent.
Not quite sure we will achieve herd immunity by June. I thought it would take a couple of years?
 

Rocky

Reprobate
Before Covid, there was always the possibility of illness/accident, in that respect, nothing has changed, it is just one more thing that can lay you (or a loved one) low. I already have one grandchild who will probably need support for the rest of her life (nothing to do with Covid). It may be unpleasant, it may be upsetting, it may be sad, but.... it is, and always has been, part of life.
But I'm sure you and I would never forgive ourselves if our selfish behaviour gave Covid to one a member of our family who later died just because we wanted to get back to normal......even after being vaccinated, we could catch Covid after a drink in our local Spoons and infect someone who wasn't vaccinated. Yes, life is full of risks, but knowingly doing something that would harm a member of our family or a friend or anyone, for that matter, is not something we would do.

In the past when I've been in contact with someone who has an infectious disease, I've kept clear of my elderly mother or vulnerable brother in law.......as I'm sure you have.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Why does it have to go from one extreme to another, can we not have any middle ground?
What I call the middle ground, many others call severe restrictions. The pandemic affects different groups very differently. I find it very difficult personally to see a future at all. Others can see a summer.

The behaviours are creeping in already. People barging into toilets, people walking six abreast on narrow paths, blocking paths. At the other end of the scale the people who you keep a distance from are very thankful. This is when everything's shut, going to the pub six days a week because someone can as soon as things are open up when none of the staff have been vaccinated is not great.
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
.............

In the past when I've been in contact with someone who has an infectious disease, I've kept clear of my elderly mother or vulnerable brother in law.......as I'm sure you have.
Since it is apparently possible to have Covid, or, at least, to be infectious without being aware of it, this presumably means you will have no contact with your vulnerable brother-in-law, and/or elderly Mother, for the rest of your life?

Covid is here, it is here to stay, we have to find a practical way to live with that, IMHO, of course.
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
What I call the middle ground, many others call severe restrictions. The pandemic affects different groups very differently. I find it very difficult personally to see a future at all. Others can see a summer.

The behaviours are creeping in already. People barging into toilets, people walking six abreast on narrow paths, blocking paths. At the other end of the scale the people who you keep a distance from are very thankful. This is when everything's shut, going to the pub six days a week because someone can as soon as things are open up when none of the staff have been vaccinated is not great.
Well, I suppose, I am a "glass half full" person.
 

Rocky

Reprobate
Since it is apparently possible to have Covid, or, at least, to be infectious without being aware of it, this presumably means you will have no contact with your vulnerable brother-in-law, and/or elderly Mother, for the rest of your life?

Covid is here, it is here to stay, we have to find a practical way to live with that, IMHO, of course.
Well you are not quite right there......I will keep away, until they have had both of their Covid injections just as I have kept away from my mum in the past when my spouse has had 'flu, until my mum got her 'flu jab for the year.


* edit: of course, I will only visit them when allowed to by a loosening of lockdown rules too
 

BoldonLad

Veteran
Location
South Tyneside
Well you are not quite right there......I will keep away, until they have had both of their Covid injections just as I have kept away from my mum in the past when my spouse has had 'flu, until my mum got her 'flu jab for the year.


* edit: of course, I will only visit them when allowed to by a loosening of lockdown rules too
A) I have never advocated breaking the lockdown rules

B) At the present rate of progress, all of the vulnerable and elderly who wish to be vaccinated, will have been "done" by April 2021. At 73, we have our vaccination two weeks ago, and, in our area, they are currently "doing" 65+ year olds.

C) even with the above, there WILL be new variants, just like there is with flu, so, a degree of risk will always be present.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Well, I suppose, I am a "glass half full" person.
It's not that at all.

I have friends in different positions. The ones who don't have young children screaming, refusing to do homework, saved wads of cash on commutes, reasonable sized house, happy with family life (things are never a breeze), sufficient contact with friends and family are all doing all right. The case with some who are going to day jobs which is what they want and it's quiet but not too quiet if you know what I mean. They cannot see the other world the single ones, no family, friend contact fallen off a cliff and uncertain work and financials are deeply unhappy and find it hard to see that things will ever change. Or other ones stuck in very cramped conditions with a very precarious and grim family life.

It's not really anything to do with glass half empty, glass half full.
 

Rocky

Reprobate
A) I have never advocated breaking the lockdown rules

B) At the present rate of progress, all of the vulnerable and elderly who wish to be vaccinated, will have been "done" by April 2021. At 73, we have our vaccination two weeks ago, and, in our area, they are currently "doing" 65+ year olds.

C) even with the above, there WILL be new variants, just like there is with flu, so, a degree of risk will always be present.
And I never suggested you would advocate breaking lockdown rules............. all I'm saying is that as a world we are in uncharted territory with regards to what is an acceptable risk worth taking. I agree that it would be nice to get back to normal life, but if the cost of that is harming a loved one, who would be prepared to take that risk? I'm not sure I would.
 
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