COVID: The New Normal - When and How ?

[Blue Hills]

I'd rather stay in lockdown than have a holiday in this country

You should get out more.
There's a lot out there besides the northamptonshire peaks and riviera.
This is a beautiful country. As are most.

 

[matticus]

Oh, but absolutely no kissing, especially not if you haven't been vaccinated (eg under 25 till August). And no sex with anyone you aren't living with.
Yeah, right.

It's amazing that for most of the past 340 days, it's been illegal to have sex with someone you aren't living with; and that this has been passing without comment (for the most part) !

(although if you're suggesting that under 25s should be celibate for the next 5 years; yeah, why not? teach the ungrateful snowflakes a lesson in responsibility.)

 

[johnblack]

You should get out more.
There's a lot out there besides the northamptonshire peaks and riviera.
This is a beautiful country. As are most.

I've done plenty, some were not too bad and I'll continue to do breaks in this country, hell I went to Eastbourne for a weekend last year!!! But, for me, a holiday equals almost guaranteed sunshine, a very good hotel, warm sea and great service by appreciative people, I might get some of that, but I can never bank on it in this country.

 

[Blue Hills]

I've done plenty, some were not too bad and I'll continue to do breaks in this country, hell I went to Eastbourne for a weekend last year!!! But, for me, a holiday equals almost guaranteed sunshine, a very good hotel, warm sea and great service by appreciative people, I might get some of that, but I can never bank on it in this country.

Ah yes sun and sea maybe a problem. In that case along with great cycling I'd recommend sardinia. In the meantime if a selfie fan you could try the western isles for blue seas and glorious beaches that look like the med bahamas or wherever, if bloody cold


[/QUOTE]

 

[Beebo]

I wonder what the Venn diagram of the CRG and the ERG looks like.

One was on the radio demanding full cost benefit analysis by the Civil Service before any ongoing lockdowns.
Funny how they didn’t want any of that nonsense in the Brexit debate. Oh the irony.

 

[marinyork]

It's amazing that for most of the past 340 days, it's been illegal to have sex with someone you aren't living with; and that this has been passing without comment (for the most part) !

(although if you're suggesting that under 25s should be celibate for the next 5 years; yeah, why not? teach the ungrateful snowflakes a lesson in responsibility.)

It's just the government mostly have the nuclear family in mind in covid policies. Thought given to those who live alone, childcare and children where care is split between households, childcare bubbles were eventually considered but I would argue all these were from the prism of supposed deviations from the nuclear family in the minds of policy makers. Alcohol abuse and domestic abuse got in the government's thinking. Perhaps even those were considered as aberations of the nuclear family.

There have been occasional pieces about dating and relationships in the guardian and BBC. If you go to other bits of tinternet inhabited by people in their 20s and 30s like me talk is rather different. I know in multi single person households there are systems described in the article above.

I know a few people that had legal dates in parks lol. So far I haven't heard of any going anywhere at all with the exception of a charming BBC story a few days ago 3 dates before March, park dates and engaged .

 

[matticus]

I'm just waiting for dating apps that require a vaccine passport. (For a friend, of course.)

 

[byegad]

So assuming the vaccination is at least partly successful when do we return to a normal and what will that look like ?

Before the new variants I was kind on thinking end of summer we might see some sense of normality - but Im revising that downwards to March 2022

Options for the new normal:-

Scenario 1.) The vaccine works well enough, that we all take an annual jab, and covid mostly becomes a bad memory. We crowd into restaurants, pubs, nightclubs, work places much as we did before.

Scenario 2.) The vaccine partially works - but our lifestyle forever changes. Pubs become entirely different, with table service only, mass crowds at concerts and football matches - become something we used to do. Testing, Masks, and social distancing are just accepted as the way we do things - public transport and holidays abroad become niche activities
.
Scenario 3) - The vaccines have little impact, we adapt to a shorter life expectancy, and Covid is something that you can regularly die from in your 50's and 60's - and younger if you're unlucky. We social distance to reduce the impact, lockdowns become occasional in thw winter months. The vaccine/treatments slowly improve - but it takes around 10 years before we have covid under control.

thoughts ?

I suspect we'll be at Scenario 2 for a few years, with a slow move back to Scenario 1 for the younger and less vulnerable pretty much done and dusted by 2026
For us older, more vulnerable types I suspect we'll be lucky to live long enough to do that, as the risk to us is likely to be in the background sufficient to warrant some precautions.

Lady Byegad has a lung condition, and even a cold can rapidly become hospitalised pneumonia, I have Asthma and it gets bad if I catch cold.

Pre-Covid, our family and friends knew that in the winter, if they had a cold, they should not meet us. The risks were too great.

Post-Covid I suspect that will become a year round thing, and in the winter, when out and about we* will be wearing FFP2 masks.

I do hope I'm wrong, but I fear not.

*The Byegads

 

[Blue Hills]

Chris Hopson chief executive of NHS Providers seems to have said that that english lockdown easing can't start until all top 9 groups have been vaccinated.
That's going to be one hell of a wait as above "over 60s" there are a massive number of folk in Group 6, Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group.
Views?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Even with the increase to Gp 6 numbers, the now maybe 33M vaccinations (first dose only for about 20M) needed to 'complete' the first phase (Gps 1-9) should be achieved by late April even if average per day rate drops to 400kpd. Which is what the government have said, without making it a 'target' aiui.
Worth bearing in mind that a fair percentage of O60/O55/O50s will have received their jabs because they are in Gps 2 (S&HCW), 4 (CEV) or 6. So the numbers in Gps 7-9 will be correspondingly reduced.

 

[matticus]

Chris Hopson chief executive of NHS Providers seems to have said that that english lockdown easing can't start until all top 9 groups have been vaccinated.
That's going to be one hell of a wait as above "over 60s" there are a massive number of folk in Group 6, Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group.
Views?

Views? OK, here's two:
- this is quite a short-term question, more suited to the main thread. I'd hoped this thread would be more about long-term, sustainable futures. But anyway:
- my current view is that if we get deaths below 1-a-week, we have already done enough jabs to start easing the lockdown
In reality, some situation between that and the current figures will be required ...

 

[marinyork]

Chris Hopson chief executive of NHS Providers seems to have said that that english lockdown easing can't start until all top 9 groups have been vaccinated.
That's going to be one hell of a wait as above "over 60s" there are a massive number of folk in Group 6, Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group.
Views?

It just reflects that the "new normal" will be jabs, keeping hypervigilant to have low rates and lots of restrictions such as distancing, face coverings and rule of six and travel restrictions/monitoring/paperwork.

In an ideal world you'd go far further than Chris Hopson and not much easing until everyone who physically goes off to work and has to interact with people. If you vaccinate everyone down to 50 it's been modelled that around April deaths go down by 80%. It does nothing to stop the virus belting around the ages of around 14 to 49.

The NHS clarified the last couple of days that the fantastical aims they've said about doing 7 million vaccinations per week is based on JCVI rather lazily just ploughing downwards through the age categories 45-49 etc as it's quicker and supply issues will be sorted. That only makes sense if you keep things restricted till the summer. It also means you have to deliver the goods. Unfortunately the vaccination drive has slowed down of late, not speeded up, something which does not seem to have been picked up by the media.