"I Boris"...We Really Need to Talk About Johnson

Hitchington

Lovely stuff
Location
That London
Well, I think our new incumbent incompetent prime minister deserves its own thread.

A place where we can come together to share our hopes and dreams, fears and worries. A place that we can scuntanise and debate the inevitable car crash or "energising" premiership of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

What are your initial thoughts? Worse/best case scenarios? How do you think it's going to pan out over the coming weeks and months, what are you predictions? Let's see if any of these predictions come true.


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perplexed

Guru
Location
Sheffield

 
OP
Hitchington

Hitchington

Lovely stuff
Location
That London
Big rumour that Priti Patel will be given the job of Home Secretary, FFS...
The Tory who said we should threaten Ireland with food shortages to force them into dropping the backstop.
 

C R

Über Member
Location
Worcester
Big rumour that Priti Patel will be given the job of Home Secretary, FFS...
The Tory who said we should threaten Ireland with food shortages to force them into dropping the backstop.
Yes, the same Priti Patel that had to resign her post because she was negotiating with a foreign government without the knowledge of either the PM or the FO. And then they go round calling other people traitors.
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
Well, I think our new incumbent incompetent prime minister deserves its own thread.

A place were we can come together to share our hopes and dreams, fears and worries. A place that we can scuntanise and debate the inevitable car crash or "energising" premiership of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

What are your initial thoughts? Worse/best case senarios? How do you think it's going to pan out over the coming weeks and months, what are you predictions? Let's see if any of these predictions come true.

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Is that a Freudian spelling mistake?
 

perplexed

Guru
Location
Sheffield
My intial ramblings.

I've just noted on the other thread, that one advantage of him being PM is that there is no hiding place for him. He absolutley will be exposed. Someone who knows him, I can't recall who, highlighted that he really doesn't bother with detail. The theory is, that all his life, he's had someone who's fixed it, sorted it out for him, and he's just the public facing bit.

Even now, he's just rehashing the same slogans which have proved empty and worthless for the last two or three years, but people are still cheering him on.

It's so hard to predict what will happen. Will he call a GE and form an election pact with the utterly odious Farage and his BXP? If so, would he gain seats on the one hand, but on the other hand, would the more centrist Tories who lean to Remain (there must be some, even a large minority) vote elsewhere and lose him seats? Jeremy Corbyn of course plays no small part in this. I've made no secret of the fact I dispair of the leadership, but will he call a vote of No Confidence? The cynical part of me, given the Lexit tendencies which are equally as daft as Brexit, thinks that he may call such a vote - but it's no good if he does it on 1st November. It might get us rid of the obnoxious Johnson, but equally there are going to be millions of very, very upset Remainers.

The EU aren't going to reopen the WA for anyone and I don't blame them. It depends how much reality hurts when it collides with Johnson.

I don't know.

If MPs cross the floor, he's done. A GE would probably put us in the same position as we are now but with an increase in Remain party MPs, but who, what and how many, who knows. Equally the Tories would probably lose seats, most to the BXP.
 

roubaixtuesday

Über Member
Predictions are hard, particularly about the future.

And it is particularly hard to predict what Johnson will do, given that he is a notorious liar who has made many promises which are both undeliverable individually and mutually incompatible to boot.

So let’s focus on what we do know:
  1. He is shameless and will change position at the drop of a hat. He cares not a jot for actual policy.
  2. He is narcissistic and needs to be at the centre of things
  3. He has overweening personal ambition.
  4. He has no real parliamentary majority and many bitter enemies in his own party.
  5. The ERG remain utterly intransigent.
  6. Reality precludes him delivering any of his promises.
So, for predictions:
  1. There will be a *lot* of bluster and noise, Churchill impersonations, “energy”, “optimism”, “can do” without any clear strategy or direction. See (1,2)
  2. Much money will be spent to buy popularity; all fiscal restraint will go. Austerity binned to shoot Corbyn’s fox and be ready for an election he may have little control over the timing of. See (3,4)
  3. A fudge will be put together with the EU, and May’s deal with cosmetic changes will be re-presented yet again as something else. The ERG will vote it down again. See (1, 4, 5)
  4. General election will then be called before he has to face losing a confidence vote prior to no-deal or
  5. No- deal followed by immediate General Election 1st week in Nov before full consequences are clear. These last two will depend on how effective parliament is at stopping no deal. (5) seems most likely to me right now.
I fully expect to be proved wrong within days.
 

perplexed

Guru
Location
Sheffield
Possible, or even likely stalemate?

I suppose onward direction as far as Brexit is concerned would be dictated by how many Lib Dem/Green/BXP/SNP etc seats there are, but in many respects here, it depends what Labour decide to do. The reality is, they are going to have to back Leave or Remain without caveat, as the WA negotiations are done. Unless Labour win an overwhelming majority, they aren't going to get their version of Brexit past Parliament either as the EU aren't going to budge on their core principles and the headbangers of the ERG/BXP will block it anyway.


Edit: Added the main paragraph
 
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