Stage 17 *Spoiler*

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Noodley

Guest
I'll get this one started early as I am off work ill and bored :biggrin:

A short stage which should see everyone reach the bottom of the climb together.

I'm going to go for Menchov, ably assisted by Ardila, to take today's stage.
 
You think Sastre's not got another one in him or Leipheimer eager to make up or on recent form Armstrong with a point to prove? Actually Armstrong will be nursing Leipheimer to keep him in with a shout of a GC in the ITT, so Sastre or Menchov. I'm going Sastre because Menchov will continue marking Di Luca.
 

Landslide

Rare Migrant
Another day where all the favourites are too scared to try anything too daring, with a handful of seconds gained or lost between the top 5.:biggrin:

Alternatively, Di Luca and LPR will rip the peloton to shreds from the off, catapulting "The Killer" into an unassailable lead!!!:biggrin::o)
 

rich p

ridiculous old lush
Location
Brighton
I think Menchov has something in reserve. He may not win the stage but he'll cover everything dangerous as Crackle says.

Did anyone think Armstrong's behaviour was odd the other day? He seemed to go with the Menchov/Luca group until he got shelled out and then went back to 'assist' Leipheimer. Not the normal domestique method.
 
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Noodley

Noodley

Guest
Crackle said:
You think Sastre's not got another one in him or Leipheimer eager to make up or on recent form Armstrong with a point to prove? Actually Armstrong will be nursing Leipheimer to keep him in with a shout of a GC in the ITT, so Sastre or Menchov. I'm going Sastre because Menchov will continue marking Di Luca.

I think Menchov will control it with the help of his domestiques. Sastre may get a bit of help but I reckon he needs to attack on his own rather than rely on others if he wants the win - and Menchov will not allow him to do that. Di Luca will get marked all the way by Menchov, and I do not think he is strong enough to take the stage. Menchov was quite happy to allow Sastre break away in stage 16 and take the 20 secs bonus but he will not allow Di Luca to take any bonus. Hopefully Armstrong will find out like he did on stage 16 that he can maybe keep up for a while but when the going gets tough he'll find a sudden desire to play the role of domestique again...

This is all the ramblings of someone with a fever of course :biggrin:
 
rich p said:
Did anyone think Armstrong's behaviour was odd the other day? He seemed to go with the Menchov/Luca group until he got shelled out and then went back to 'assist' Leipheimer. Not the normal domestique method.

I couldn't work that out actually, mind you I was watching it on Justintv which kept breaking up. It appeared he kept up with Menchov and DiLuca but then paused when Sastre put in an accelaration. Being pessimistic I'd go with your interpretation, being optimistic I'd say he wanted to go but remembered he was a team player. If he had I think he might have got dropped further up but what is surprising me is how his strength is growing through the race. I honestly thought at 37 recovery was going to be a problem.
 

Landslide

Rare Migrant
Noodley said:
I think Menchov will control it with the help of his domestiques...
Maybe I'm just not noticing it, but there seems to be a lot less of that kind of behaviour going on these days. Compare the US Postal approach of ~10 years ago with today's racing where all the favourites make up their own little bunch with little in the way of serious attacking. Have the doping controls finally given us something closer to a level playing field...?
Noodley said:
This is all the ramblings of someone with a fever of course :biggrin:
Get some whisky down you!:biggrin:
 
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Noodley

Noodley

Guest
Landslide said:
Maybe I'm just not noticing it, but there seems to be a lot less of that kind of behaviour going on these days. Compare the US Postal approach of ~10 years ago with today's racing...

Rabobank had a small group on stage 16 who looked after Menchov, and I reckon they'll protect him well again today making sure he gets to the climb with a lot left in the tank.

Di Luca and Sastre will have to make all the attacks, whereas Menchov can just mark them if required and call on some help from his team as well.
 
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