The Brexit Thread

Diogenes

brr, summer's over
I nearly put up a Twitter post yesterday, but got distracted by something else.

The post essentially said that every time you think Labour have finally faced up to reality and come out with an 'official' statement saying they are definately going to campaign for Remain in an election (non of this lexit bollix), another 'spokesmen' appears, usually within hours, to back track on it. To quote what the post said;

They do this...

'Every'
'Fu£&!ng'
'Time'

Yup

Fresh Labour Brexit confusion as spokesman insists it is 'not a Remain party'

Labour's policy on Brexit is mired in fresh confusion after a spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn insisted it was not a "Remain party".

His comments came despite Labour pledging to campaign for Remain if another EU referendum is held before the next general election.

It also appeared to be at odds with recent comments made by Shadow International Trade Secretary Barry Gardiner, who said earlier this month said Labour had "always been a Remain and reform party".

But asked to confirm that was now Labour's position, Mr Corbyn's spokesman said: "We're not in that zone."

He added: "We've never said that. We've said we will campaign for Remain against a damaging Tory deal or against no-deal in a referendum, but there are other circumstances that could occur."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/105535/fresh-labour-brexit-confusion
 

Duffy

Senior Member
I really wish that Labour would get their shoot together on this.
There’ll undoubtedly be a GE soon and they’re busy rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and can’t even agree on how to do that!
If they can’t form a credible position on the biggest political issue of the day, how can you trust them in anything else?
We’ve got what’s shaping up to be the most despicable cabinet I can remember and Her Majesty’s loyal opposition are where?????
 
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Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
I really wish that Labour would get their shoot together on this.
There’ll undoubtedly be a GE soon and they’re busy rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and can’t even agree on how to do that!
If they can’t form a credible position on the biggest political issue of the day, how can you trust them in anything else?
We’ve got what’s shaping up to be the most despicable cabinet I can remember and the Her Majesty loyal opposition are where?????
Spot on. Johnson would be a fool not to call a GE quick sharp and even if you think he is, Cummings isn't.
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Yup
Fresh Labour Brexit confusion as spokesman insists it is 'not a Remain party'
Labour doesn't have to become a remain party. What it does need to do is give the electorate another chance in the light of the botched way Brexit has been handled over the last three years, and its potential negative outcome. A new vote could confirm Brexit, but it would hopefully be a more informed choice.

Any new vote should be left entirely up to the conscience of the electorate, and MP's from all parties should be free to argue for or against as they think fit. It's the kind of issue where party politics should take a back seat, in fact can prove to be an absolute curse when the interests of the country as a whole are made subject to party advantage.
 

Diogenes

brr, summer's over
Spot on. Johnson would be a fool not to call a GE quick sharp and even if you think he is, Cummings isn't.
Aye, because calling a General Election when she didn't have to worked out so well for Theresa May. I think he'll stick with it, fudge Brexit with May's deal re-named and then go a full term, by which time the Brexit Party will have slithered back to whence they came and he can take on Labour in a straight fight - which he'll win because he has "celebrity factor".
 

srw

It's a bit more complicated than that...
Aye, because calling a General Election when she didn't have to worked out so well for Theresa May. I think he'll stick with it, fudge Brexit with May's deal re-named and then go a full term, by which time the Brexit Party will have slithered back to whence they came and he can take on Labour in a straight fight - which he'll win because he has "celebrity factor".
May screwed up because she ran a shockingly poor campaign and was up against a relatively unknown Corbyn in his honeymoon period and able to campaign on his home turf. Corbyn has lost credibility and all of his spending pledges are being outdone and then some by Johnson, who is also a decent campaigner.
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
Any campaign is a gamble, why should he gamble?
Because if it's a gamble in any circumstance you do it when the odds are best stacked in your favour.
Right now Labour are looking like a busted flush under Corbyn, LDs are showing strongly but that's unlikely to translate to anything like a majority under FPTP so their best option would be a Lib/Lab pact, but Swinson has said she wont do anything with them while Corbyn is there. Johnson has gone hard right to try hoover up the BP votes, I think it's likely, if we have a GE soonish, that the BP will pick up a few MPs, they will sit with the Torys which means Johnson can tell the DUP to do one, then he doesn't have to worry about the break up of the Union issue. Johnson, though vehemently opposed by many, will cause a considerable bounce in Tory support, particularly thanks to the dog whistles he's blowing at the moment. Now's the time for him, before Labour replace Corbyn, before the Libs and Labs agree some kind of pact and before everything that he's promised already crashes into reality.
 
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Diogenes

brr, summer's over
I see where you're coming from but Boris is in the position he always wanted now and has 3 years to enjoy it. If he goes for an election and wins, he gets 5 years to enjoy it. If he loses, he'll go down as one of the shortest reigning PMs ever. I don't think the benefits outweigh the risks.

Johnson wants to write his name in history, he'll not chance becoming a footnote.


ETA - I also think if Boris delivers Brexit in some form, the Brexit Party will evaporate and thus not be any kind of threat to him.
 
OP
Spinney

Spinney

Bimbleur extraordinaire
Location
Under the Edge
ETA - I also think if Boris delivers Brexit in some form, the Brexit Party will evaporate and thus not be any kind of threat to him.
You really think Farage will ever go away?

No, whatever type of Brexit happens, it will not be pure enough, or something. Any excuse to keep his face in the media and hoover up money from foreigners who do not have Britain's best interests at heart.
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
I see where you're coming from but Boris is in the position he always wanted now and has 3 years to enjoy it. If he goes for an election and wins, he gets 5 years to enjoy it. If he loses, he'll go down as one of the shortest reigning PMs ever. I don't think the benefits outweigh the risks.

Johnson wants to write his name in history, he'll not chance becoming a footnote.
He's got a majority of 1. He wont enjoy that for 3 years, no chance. Particularly when Brexit rumbles across the horizon again, some of his own MPs have said they'll bring him down. His best hope of getting a stable majority is calling the election sooner rather than later, deselect the dissenters and get his own crowd in. It's still a gamble, as you say, they usually are, but I think doing it right now would give him the best chance of staying in power.
 

Diogenes

brr, summer's over
He's got a majority of 1. He wont enjoy that for 3 years, no chance. Particularly when Brexit rumbles across the horizon again, some of his own MPs have said they'll bring him down. His best hope of getting a stable majority is calling the election sooner rather than later, deselect the dissenters and get his own crowd in. It's still a gamble, as you say, they usually are, but I think doing it right now would give him the best chance of staying in power.
In which case he'd have the option to deliver Brexit, get that off the table, then roll the dice.

What are Farage's Fannies going to do after Brexit? I really don't think they'll get any meaningful support for anything more and I can't see the mechanism for agreeing a deal then getting Parliament to cancel it months or years later. The BP hold cards only whilst the media makes them out to be a threat. I think in any General Election they'll be as much of an irrelevance as UKIP always were.

It also takes time to deselect people you don't agree with, as Corbyn is discovering and anyway, the reason you disagree with them ends the minute Brexit happens.
 

raleighnut

Guru
Location
On 3 Wheels
You really think Farage will ever go away?

No, whatever type of Brexit happens, it will not be pure enough, or something. Any excuse to keep his face in the media and hoover up money from foreigners who do not have Britain's best interests at heart.
Aye 'brexit' seems to be whether we'll be 'under the thumb' to Europe or America at the moment instead of standing on the world stage. :cursing:
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
In which case he'd have the option to deliver Brexit, get that off the table, then roll the dice.

What are Farage's Fannies going to do after Brexit? I really don't think they'll get any meaningful support for anything more and I can't see the mechanism for agreeing a deal then getting Parliament to cancel it months or years later. The BP hold cards only whilst the media makes them out to be a threat. I think in any General Election they'll be as much of an irrelevance as UKIP always were.

It also takes time to deselect people you don't agree with, as Corbyn is discovering and anyway, the reason you disagree with them ends the minute Brexit happens.
Which is why I think it'll be before the Brexit date. I don't think he has the numbers to get Brexit through, certainly not no deal and if the EU are true to their word he's unlikely to get the WA changed. The ERG have already said they will not be voting for it. As the numbers stand it would appear he can't get any form of Brexit through so unless he comes up with a mechanism to block parliament blocking him he has to get more people or he's toast. How long does it take to deselect a candidate?
I think you're right in many ways concerning the BPs but I wouldn't count them out entirely in a GE nor would I count out the possibility that Johnson would come to an agreement with Farage to not fight certain seats and so split the vote. As for what they do after Brexit, they defect to the Torys, simple as that.
 
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