The Brexit Thread

roubaixtuesday

Über Member
The US Democrats' stance on trade deals and the Irish Border is encouraging, I think. If they have the numbers to block deals, it means no deals with the US with a no-deal Brexit, as that will involve a hard border.

Johnson v Pelosi - I know who I'd put my money on.
It makes little difference. The chance of a transformative trade deal with the avowedly protectionist Trump administration is zero. Even if the House would countenance supporting it. And even if it happened, it wouldn't get close to compensating for the trade hit from even a May style brexit, let alone a Johnson style one. It's a red herring.
 

Kajjal

Veteran
Location
Wheely World
Which is why I think it'll be before the Brexit date. I don't think he has the numbers to get Brexit through, certainly not no deal and if the EU are true to their word he's unlikely to get the WA changed. The ERG have already said they will not be voting for it. As the numbers stand it would appear he can't get any form of Brexit through so unless he comes up with a mechanism to block parliament blocking him he has to get more people or he's toast. How long does it take to deselect a candidate?
I think you're right in many ways concerning the BPs but I wouldn't count them out entirely in a GE nor would I count out the possibility that Johnson would come to an agreement with Farage to not fight certain seats and so split the vote. As for what they do after Brexit, they defect to the Torys, simple as that.
Johnson is currently aiming at the brexit party support to see how it affects the polling while also scatter gunning “policies” to see which are popular. If it works it is much easier to make a few Britain is great and we will defeat the evil EU style speeches to hoover up brexit party supporters than to appeal to those to the left of the conservatives who are increasingly rejecting them with more detailed actual policies. The EU is unlikely to be moved by any of this.
 
OP
Spinney

Spinney

Bimbleur extraordinaire
Location
Under the Edge
I should have added, that the few brain cells still operating in the Cabinet might realise that their promises of trade deals are going to fail if they crash out (the whole excuse for crashing out being to make trade deals...).
Of course, half of them don't care as they'll make money, but are all of them so thick that they don't realise that their political careers could be over?

Sadly, the answer to that last might be 'yes'.
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
I should have added, that the few brain cells still operating in the Cabinet might realise that their promises of trade deals are going to fail if they crash out (the whole excuse for crashing out being to make trade deals...).
Of course, half of them don't care as they'll make money, but are all of them so thick that they don't realise that their political careers could be over?

Sadly, the answer to that last might be 'yes'.
It's the same with Johnson talking about withholding the £39bn (or whatever it is now) when the EU have told them they will not start trade negotiations unless it's paid. It's more dog whistles, but it works.
To me it all points to a GE.
 
I should have added, that the few brain cells still operating in the Cabinet might realise that their promises of trade deals are going to fail if they crash out (the whole excuse for crashing out being to make trade deals...).
Of course, half of them don't care as they'll make money, but are all of them so thick that they don't realise that their political careers could be over?

Sadly, the answer to that last might be 'yes'.
I still wonder if the plan is to go to the EU and demand they reopen the agreement, knowing full well the EU will say no, then declaim loudly the EU is being difficult and trying to harm the UK; Nigel and the Brexit party fluff about "Oppression by the evil empire" and walk out.

Boris and his gang position themselves as the inheritors of the Churchill mantle: plucky defenders of England against those rotten foreign types and block all attempts to stop a "No Deal" Brexit in October.

The next election would then take place in the aftermath of Brexit with the Tories/ERG and Brexit Ltd. working together, with Remain parties being loudly declaimed as "Traitors" and "Saboteurs".

In that context all the chaos is an advantage to Boris and the ERG: Not only do they get to fight an election on a 'patriotic platform with the means to silence the opposition, they also get to clean up financially on the side while they do it. Also with the ERG and Brexit Ltd. on side Boris has a higher chance of a new term.

Of course that means he presides over the chaos of a no-deal Brexit, but I doubt he's thought that far ahead. Actually I'm not sure he's thought as far ahead as this thread, but I'll be plenty of others around him have.
 
OP
Spinney

Spinney

Bimbleur extraordinaire
Location
Under the Edge

alicat

Legendary Member
Location
Staffs
Here is my twopenn'oth. Boris flip-flopped re Brexit pre the referendum. Boris wants to be 'world king' more than anything. Boris will spar a bit with the EU then announce that there is no deal to be done, that no deal is a terrible option and that the EU isn't so bad after all so he is in favour of revoking Article 50. With his charisma, he can persuade his fan club and the remainers won't demur. All hail Boris, saviour of the UK.

You read it here first. I can but hope....
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
The US Democrats' stance on trade deals and the Irish Border is encouraging, I think. If they have the numbers to block deals, it means no deals with the US with a no-deal Brexit, as that will involve a hard border.

Johnson v Pelosi - I know who I'd put my money on.
I am sure Pelosi does think that, however it is Pelosi playing politics. She is very worried about 'the squad' and has to make these very dramatic statements to get herself publicity.
 

stowie

Guru
Oh dear, the mentality of one of our leaders:sad:.
Jacob Rees-Mogg insists on staff using imperial units, ITV News says
The new leader of the House of Commons has issued a list of banned words and phrases to his staff, according to Paul Brand of ITV News. Part of his style guide is for his staff to use imperial, rather than metric units.
"Eats, shoots and leaves" is a guide for JRM on grammar and a guide to dating for Boris Johnson.

Not mine, saw it on twitter but cannot repost from a mobile.
JRM really is a farking twat isn't he? Imperial measurements? Just why? Cue hilarious confusion when one department assumes inches and another cm.
 
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