The Post-Brexit Thread

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Email from a friend about a webinar: "[Will Hutton and Gina Miller] thought that the UK, or what was left of it, could realistically hope to be nicely on track to be tucked up back in the EU before the end of the decade. They both stressed the Brexiteers lack of a coherent vision of our country’s future post-Brexit. This lack of vision together with the serious practical difficulties arising from Brexit could shift the public mood on Europe back in our favour quickly after the pandemic crisis starts to ease and politics returns to normal.

On that they both agreed. But on other points they held different views. [...] The most unexpected and scary part of the evening came at the end of Gina Miller’s presentation. With the imminent demise of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, she warned that Boris Johnson might try to capitalise on post-pandemic euphoria and go for a new general election mandate as early as 2022. If successful this strategy would ensure that his hard Brexit government was still firmly in charge well before the treaty review in 2025."
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Better here than on a covid thread.

I have just not resisted the temptation to comment on a Jeff Taylor YT video (which I didn't watch, I read the blurb) on Brexit being the reason Britain is doing so well on the vaccine front. Strictly speaking this isn't true, but it may be the case that not waiting for the EU to order might mean Britain has obtained more vaccines that in the light of recent events would have to have been shared with the EU.

I know remoaners can still go on about Brexit, but this lot beggar belief. You almost start to wonder if Jeff's disciples are mentally ill. Even if they were right about EU bureaucracy having messed up, there is no compassion for those who will not get the vaccine until later because of this. It is both fascinating and nauseating at the same time.

Using the pandemic to make petty political points for or against Brexit in the shadow of the pandemic is wrong regardless of where you stand on this. In any event, isn't Brexit in the past now?
 

the snail

Guru
Location
Chippenham
Put it this way, which do you think is more likely?

1) The EU welcomes rumpUK back with open arms and gives it all the options, derogations and rebates it wants.
Or
2) Turkey vetoes rumpUK's accession application.
Those are rather strange options - unlikely that we would get the same deal if we rejoined, and Turkey is probably even less likely to join the EU than we are.
 
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Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
unlikely that we would get the same deal if we rejoined, and Turkey is probably even less likely to join the EU than we are.
Turkey joining is decades away if ever. The basic 'values' of democracy and liberty do not apply there and this would disqualify them.

For Britain I think all talk of rejoining is rather pointless. The divisions need to heal, a country joining with the possibility of another referendum to leave again is no good idea.

A more gradual approach with a positive attitude towards the EU and negotiating a closer rather than distant relationship will have to be the first steps, but even this is unlikely with the current Conservative party, it is too nationalist for this.

I think there is next to no chance of any more opt-outs if Britain rejoined. I think it would be either rejoin fully and get involved or don't bother.
 

Pale Rider

Legendary Member
Turkey joining is decades away if ever. The basic 'values' of democracy and liberty do not apply there and this would disqualify them.

For Britain I think all talk of rejoining is rather pointless. The divisions need to heal, a country joining with the possibility of another referendum to leave again is no good idea.

A more gradual approach with a positive attitude towards the EU and negotiating a closer rather than distant relationship will have to be the first steps, but even this is unlikely with the current Conservative party, it is too nationalist for this.

I think there is next to no chance of any more opt-outs if Britain rejoined. I think it would be either rejoin fully and get involved or don't bother.
Perhaps Boris will win the next election on 'keep Brexit done'.
 

srw

It's a bit more complicated than that...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/07/why-wealthy-happy-to-back-leave-vote-gamble

A new study. Rich people, with a cushion of wealth to fall back on, were more likely to support Brexit than poor people.

The whole story of Brexit has been about the North and the Red Wall. But that's not the most important part of the story. The vote was driven by the affluent parts of the South East of England outside of London. That's been known for four years, but has received little attention.

"Using a variety of data sources, including two nationally representative panel surveys and
a survey experiment, we present multiple sets of evidence in support of our core expectation
that wealth (at the individual level) increases support for Brexit, and that this effect is due to its
role in decreasing risk-aversion. In brief, with little or no insurance, less wealthy Britons were
less likely to support a status-quo change and vote for Brexit."

That result also suggests things about any notional Scottish independence referendum and about how an opposition party needs to approach a general election. It's going to be easier to persuade more affluent people to take a risk on change than it is less affluent people.
 
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