The Post-Brexit Thread

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
The inflation rate was down last month so wage rises are clearly not causing inflation either.
(Output per hour worked is a little higher than 2019 but still below the pre-Covid peak)
I think it's far too soon for inflationary pressure to come through (and it's not a point I've made - I suspect simple contraction by eg closing businesses and importing goods may defeat it.)

The point on output is the same one I was making, I think?
 

shep

Veteran
Location
Wolverhampton
Yes, actually, I did
Can't seem to find it?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Damn, this will be challenging to spin.

Employment up, unemployment down, job vacancies at a record, and wages increasing at a real rate of 6%.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...employeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest
There's a small error in the above: average wages are increasing at an actual rate of 6% per year, which is a real-terms rate of 4% because inflation is currently at 2% (all rounded off).

And as already discussed, it's not as high as it looks because furlough.
 

stowie

Legendary Member
And news from the taking back control Brexit hotdesk...

The UK government has pushed back implementation of the UK import checks intended to be introduced in October to Jan 2022. Checks due to be phased in Jan 2022 pushed back to July 2022.

The UK government cited the reason being supply chain pressure brought about by Covid :laugh:

Meanwhile, EU nations (who I think also had some COVID disruption..) are already implementing full checks on goods from the UK to EU. Thus UK exporting companies are at a disadvantage to EU exporting companies.

Tory MP on Newsnight busy blaming the EU for imposing the rules for trading with third nations on the UK. The bounders. Being organised enough to implement the new trading policies. Not cricket.
 

raleighnut

Legendary Member
Going well then :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:


264. Increased duty. UK businesses and consumers have paid 42 per cent more in customs duties on goods since Brexit came into force on 1 January of this year. The jump to £2.2 billion is a new record coming mainly as a result of goods imported from the EU failing to meet rules of origin. The figures were obtained by accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young.
Ah so that's why the tories wanted out, yet another 'tax grab'
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Tory MP on Newsnight busy blaming the EU for imposing the rules for trading with third nations on the UK. The bounders. Being organised enough to implement the new trading policies.
I had my sister complain about the same thing, no doubt prompted by the Tory press. Whilst it's true the current govt haven't got on with the necessary preparations for the new regime, there is also the mentality of continental Europeans to consider.

It might seem reasonable (cricket ^_^) at first sight to try to carry on under the old system, but the mentality of the Germans and I suspect the Dutch as well is that the British having voted to leave and therefore lose the advantageous trading arrangements, you impose the necessary checks and tariffs as of that date. That's the law and that's it. (There's a little bit of the 'obeying orders' mentality in the background to this!)

My healthcare insurance was the same - 'after midnight we won't cover a thing'.

I don't really think you can expect European govts to look kindly on a British govt that after leaving is ready to set it navy on the fisherman of supposedly friends and partners. Didn't seem to be much willingness to let the old system carry on there for a while.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
That's the law and that's it. (There's a little bit of the 'obeying orders' mentality in the background to this!)
Is it just that though?

Or is it "we need to control our food supply. Britain is leaving in order to ditch regulations, so we need to control British imports"

Fundamentally, Britain has destroyed trust in us. In the absence of trust, regulations are enforced to the letter.
 

JBGooner

Über Member
There's a small error in the above: average wages are increasing at an actual rate of 6% per year, which is a real-terms rate of 4% because inflation is currently at 2% (all rounded off).
"In real terms (adjusted for inflation), total and regular pay are now growing at a faster rate than inflation, at 6.0% for total pay and 4.5% for regular pay. Average real-pay growth rates are also affected by the base and compositional effects in the same way as nominal pay and should be interpreted with caution."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...ageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/september2021

And as already discussed, it's not as high as it looks because furlough.
How so?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The paragraph before the one you quoted summarises it: "Annual growth in average employee pay is being affected by temporary factors that have inflated the increase in the headline growth rate; base effects where the latest months are now compared with low base periods when earnings were first affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; and compositional effects where there has been a fall in the number and proportion of lower-paid employee jobs, therefore increasing average earnings."

In other words, comparing the latest completed period with a year before is comparing the highest point of recovery so far with the lowest economic point of the first wave.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
nothing has effected you.
Your confidence in your psychic abilities and your homophone abuse are both duly noted :okay:

Again, rather than make such bold issertions, you might rather meditate upon

And, naturally, you also continue to ignore the main point: that it is possible to be concerned with matters not directly impacting you. Selfishness is not a universal trait; empathy figures largely in human nature too. :becool:
 

JBGooner

Über Member
The paragraph before the one you quoted summarises it: "Annual growth in average employee pay is being affected by temporary factors that have inflated the increase in the headline growth rate; base effects where the latest months are now compared with low base periods when earnings were first affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; and compositional effects where there has been a fall in the number and proportion of lower-paid employee jobs, therefore increasing average earnings."

In other words, comparing the latest completed period with a year before is comparing the highest point of recovery so far with the lowest economic point of the first wave.
Ummm .. but what does that have to do with furlough?

I was genuinely interested in what impacr furlough had on the rates of pay. Presumably, in the early months furlough kept rates of pay from declining, or declining by more. Recently, perhaps, furlough may be acting to push wage increases higher. But I don't know.
 
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