The Swiss army knife/multitools are what I want to get away from - they are terrible in real use.
Tape and cable ties - yes I forgot we have those as routine.
Not sure about the chain tool - use one at home, but have not felt the need on tour - we fit new chains for each tour and have never had one break (thinking about it, I have never had a chain break in 50 years of cycling) - How likely am I to need a tool and not a replacement chain or other parts - if I need parts I can always buy a tool at the same time.
Being a non worrier I have a "Why would it"? attitude whereas others have a "What if it does"? one. My bikes are well maintained and I've never had a spoke break or a chain fail in my life and I think the last puncture I had was about 15 years ago although I do use M+ tyres. On my first major euro tour over a decade ago I went against my natural tendancy and took a lot of tools (weight) and in over 1200 miles never touched any of them, that was a lesson learned and I've reverted to type. Nowadays on tour I take the same as I do when I go out for a any ride and it all fits in a seat pouch, if I was setting out across the Nullaboor Plain then I'd do things differently.......