Cars are in decline.

[Red Light]

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-2286616.html

Is this the end of the car?
The decline of driving in Britain may have reached a tipping point. At least that's the idea behind the theory of 'peak car'. Clint Witchalls finds out more



Friday, 20 May 2011





Something weird is happening," says Phil Goodwin, professor of transport policy at the University of the West of England. "Car use in Britain is on the decline, but no one is exactly sure why." Goodwin says we have reached "peak car". If he is right, this has important implications for how we design our towns and cities, and where public money gets allocated.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I think he may be onto something ....

Car ownership costs are rising notably, fuel in particular for everybody, servicing costs, new tyres etc. are all rising and cars are not getting any cheaper to buy either.

For the young in particular, insurance costs are staaaaaaaaaggering especially when allied to the cost of getting ones offspring througf driving school and the test. These are big money items.
But also the young are getting used to the idea that 'affordable' driving has long gone, my kids are very used to public transport and many are starting to ride bikes. Towns such as Oxford and Abingdon are well served by public transport, park and ride etc. Me and the Mrs will often now take a bus as it's not worth the cost and hassle of taking the car into Oxford.

Times are also hard economically and we all have to cut our cloth. We reduced our car ownership from 2 to 1 car 4 years ago and it saved a lot of cash and we never had an occasion where we actually needed 2 cars. (We have 2 now because my Job has changed and I have a company funded car, however we run the cheapest buzzbox we can get).

I've also commented here on another observation; Motorway speeds are reducing, not due to the law, but I'm certain due to costs. Modern cars have mpg readouts and it's pretty easy to see the economic benefit of driving more gently, or moving to a car with greater mpg ... hence we go nearly everywhere in our C1 buzzbox.

Slowly but surely, enlightened town planners and councils with vision, slowly improving INTEGRATED public transport systems, Boris bike experiences, costs, 'local' thinking, shortening commuting distances, homeworking etc. in conjunction with severely increasing cost, congestion, environmental issues will slowly turn the tide against multiple car ownership and operation. It won't happen overnight, but for every end, there has to be a beginning.

The next generation, my kids generation may have a very different view of transport and 'essentials'.

 

[Wankelschrauben]

Fuel costs are the real killer, it was literally costing me no less than £70 per week, insurance is £80 per month which in my opinion is just ridiculously high anyway considering 6years NCB.

The government have forced motor costs through the roof.

 

[ufkacbln]

Fuel costs are the real killer, it was literally costing me no less than £70 per week, insurance is £80 per month which in my opinion is just ridiculously high anyway considering 6years NCB.

The government have forced motor costs through the roof.

Rubbish -when compared to any other cost of living, motoring is cheaper in terms of income than ten or twenty years ago compared to public transport the difference is some 30 %

As for insurance, perhaps if more drivers drove sensibly, legally and with courtesy the payouts would be reduced?

 

[Dan B]

The government have forced motor costs through the roof.

They drank all the oil, did they?

 

[Browser]

Only trouble with this is, if cycling continues to get more popular the exchequer will want a slice, so be prepared for cycle M.O.T.s, mandatory collision insurance, licensing, the ruddy works!

 

[XmisterIS]

Personally, I find driving a chore and necessity rather than something enjoyable. My great lump of a Ford Mondeo mostly sits on my drive doing nothing when the weather is nice; it comes out to get building materials and do big shopping.

I would much rather be on the motorbike or on my bicycle. Nowadays I see far more motorbikes and bicycles than I used to and in the states (where they seem to be 20 years behind Europe in terms of eco-awareness), many states are considering allowing filtering. Can you believe that there are some states in the USA where you're not allowed to filter on a motorbike or a bicycle? The cops will actually pull you over and give you a fine if you filter, even on your bicycle! Just like you'll get a ticket for crossing the road where there isn't a pedestrian crossing. Nuts. Totally nuts!

Incidentally, filtering and jay-walking are also illegal in Germany, but there the cops couldn't care less. I've filtered past several Polizeiautos before and they don't care.

 

[Cosmicned]

After a year of stress free bike commuting & my car now sitting on the drive for days at a time- me & the missus' agreed we should downsize to one car - i think its the beginning of the end for the car- few more years & they'll be just for the priveliged few- like University education ;-)

 

[XmisterIS]

I am seriously considering ditching the mondeo once I've done all my building work, and getting a hybrid and trailer. Since I learned to ride a motorbike, cars just don't "do it" for me! If I wanted a car with the same acceleration as my bike, I'd need to spend tens of thousands of £££ on some fuel-drinking monstrosity! And it would still get stuck in traffic jams ... I'll stick to getting 0-60 in under 4 seconds from something that has the same fuel efficiency as my mum's nissan micra, and it can filter. It's a no-brainer!

 

[downfader]

Only trouble with this is, if cycling continues to get more popular the exchequer will want a slice, so be prepared for cycle M.O.T.s, mandatory collision insurance, licensing, the ruddy works!

Any "losses" will be offset by a small increase in income tax. Cycles wont need any mandatory regs imo. In some ways theres too many regs for cars and the minority have ruined it for the majority who drive.

However is there really a loss? The increased health of people, and the improved longevity/efficiency of the services they use (and this can count with smoking, drinking etc) means services cost less to run and only those that really need it cost the taxpayer.. and isnt that how its supposed to be.

If car use is in decline I can see several factors being possible from what I see locally:
- no where left to park a car (at both employment and residential sites)
- car fuel is rising, as is maintenance costs an general taxes, etc. As Cunobelin said it is indeed cheaper than say 20 years ago in relation to an average wage - people do like money though. Its more down to "want" than "need" in most cases
- increased insurance costs (esp towards women)
- fear of bad driving/drivers
- congestion worries, wanting to actually get to work on time
- fear of health concerns, wanting to lose weight, stay healthy.

 

[MacB]

However is there really a loss? The increased health of people, and the improved longevity/efficiency of the services they use (and this can count with smoking, drinking etc) means services cost less to run and only those that really need it cost the taxpayer.. and isnt that how its supposed to be.

are we sure on that bit though, would we not be risking exacerbating the costs around an ageing population?

 

[Browser]

Cycles wont need any mandatory regs imo. In some ways theres too many regs for cars and the minority have ruined it for the majority who drive.

I wasn't debating whether we needed more regs, merely what the govt's reaction would be if one of their cash cows, namely the everyday motorist, were replaced by a non-revenue-generating alternative. They won't let it go 'cos they never do.
Me? I'd happily see fleets of bicycles being used as everyday transport, I just can't see it happening. Everyone's too conditioned into using their cars and the convenience will be hard to give up. That and that fact that much of life's infrastructure is now geared around the car (out-of-town shopping centres etc) and it make a difficult set of sensibilities to change.

 

[BentMikey]

Money and profit will change it in a heartbeat, if that's the way things go.

 

[Adasta]

I think the key is more integrated transport networks in various towns.

In Rome, you can buy a travel pass for a fiver and you can use it on all forms of public transport, all day long. Concepts like that seem so very far away from us in Britain, but I'm not sure why. Not everyone is going to ride a bike (in the short term) simply because they don't want to do it. A better way to easing congestion or reducing reliance on the car is by making good, well though-out provisions for public transport, particularly for buses, since cyclists also benefit from a good, widespread network of bus lanes.

 

[downfader]

are we sure on that bit though, would we not be risking exacerbating the costs around an ageing population?

You stay fit and healthy for longer, so therefore you a) can work longer and b) impose less strain on services. I think things like over-population are more serious risks to services.