How likely is likely?

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roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
Photo Winner
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presta

Legendary Member
I started it, but was quickly losing the will to live. Some of them are fact and not a matter of opinion, but the rest are the reason why numbers were invented. It reminds me of chefs, and why I get p!ssed off at their recipes with things like "one large onion", and "medium carrot" or "a sprinkle of salt".
 

classic33

Leg End Member
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Consistency with others: Overall, 52% of other people's responses assigned higher probability values to words than you did. On average, your estimates were 6 percentage points lower than others.

Consistency with yourself: In 40% of the pairs you compared in Part 1, the phrase you selected also received a higher probability value in Part 2.
 

Alex321

Guru
Location
South Wales
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This was very similar to an exercise on a management course I was once sent on, where we were split into groups of three, and within our group, had to agree the order of likelihood of about 10-12 words, ranging from "never" to "always", given to us in alphabetical order.

The aim of this exercise was to demonstrate how different people can understand the same words to mean different things, and it really did show that. I was amazed by just how varied the ranking of the different groups were.
 

Beebo

Firm and Fruity
Location
Hexleybeef
View attachment 797141
Consistency with others: Overall, 52% of other people's responses assigned higher probability values to words than you did. On average, your estimates were 6 percentage points lower than others.

Consistency with yourself: In 40% of the pairs you compared in Part 1, the phrase you selected also received a higher probability value in Part 2.

Will happen at 25%?
Surely a mistake.
 
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