How likely is likely?

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting poll from a reputable academic.

Post your outcomes below

https://bsky.app/profile/adamjkucharski.bsky.social/post/3mbjskfmq4c27

 

[roubaixtuesday]

 

[presta]

I started it, but was quickly losing the will to live. Some of them are fact and not a matter of opinion, but the rest are the reason why numbers were invented. It reminds me of chefs, and why I get p!ssed off at their recipes with things like "one large onion", and "medium carrot" or "a sprinkle of salt".

 

[Dogtrousers]

Have they worked out whether a fat chance is more likely than a slim chance?

 

[classic33]

Consistency with others: Overall, 52% of other people's responses assigned higher probability values to words than you did. On average, your estimates were 6 percentage points lower than others.

Consistency with yourself: In 40% of the pairs you compared in Part 1, the phrase you selected also received a higher probability value in Part 2.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

30% of others assigned higher probability. Consistency was 90%.

 

[Alex321]

This was very similar to an exercise on a management course I was once sent on, where we were split into groups of three, and within our group, had to agree the order of likelihood of about 10-12 words, ranging from "never" to "always", given to us in alphabetical order.

The aim of this exercise was to demonstrate how different people can understand the same words to mean different things, and it really did show that. I was amazed by just how varied the ranking of the different groups were.

 

[Beebo]

“Realistic possibility” is so vague that it is almost meaningless. I’m not surprised that the range is so wide.

 

[Beebo]

View attachment 797141
Consistency with others: Overall, 52% of other people's responses assigned higher probability values to words than you did. On average, your estimates were 6 percentage points lower than others.

Consistency with yourself: In 40% of the pairs you compared in Part 1, the phrase you selected also received a higher probability value in Part 2.

Will happen at 25%?
Surely a mistake.