Quiz of the day 2 - Armstrong

[maurice]

Okay I've given you the answer, so what is the question?

a) Which cyclist has transferred his testing program from Don Catlin to Rasmus Damsgaard, a renowned anti-doping expert who runs the Astana team’s internal testing program?
Which cyclist has today published his results online?
c) Which cyclist promised what he was going to do and delivered?
d) What is the answer to all the above questions?

Don't believe me? It's true...

Results here

 

[Aperitif]

Luckily, he is an 'esteemed' doping specialist.
Not just an ordinary run-of-the-mill one who delivers coal in his spare time...

 

[Chuffy]

Ah, so does Damsgard have the pre-competition baseline data from five months ago? The stuff that Caitlin was supposed to have gathered?

Or is he just publishing the standard team testing data?

Smoke and mirrors my friends...

 

[kennykool]

I know this may come as a surprise to you all but I actually subscribe to the LIVESTRONG website!!!

 

[Crackle]

OK, who understands the results and can tell me physiologically why they vary.

Point me to another rider who has published this stuff on line.

?

asks an esteemed CycleChat member.

 

[mangaman]

Looking at them (as someone with a bit of knowledge as a doctor) they are pretty meaningless

Obviously all within the normal range, but with quite a variation

The problem is the dates - there are 7 results seemingly at random intervals over a 4 month period, with eg 3 quite close together in December and nothing then until Februaury

The interesting bit to know (Jan 18-25th) when he was racing the Tour Down Under falls in this gap, so the results have been cherry picked without explanantion.

They also don't cover other things it would be nice to know (his hormone levels for example)

In the end just a few normal results with no meaning

Incidentally I know of no other cyclists who've published their own results although in the "Death of Pantini" book his blood results were published and were wildly abnormal

 

[kennykool]

Agree Pantanis were the only other reusults that I'd ever seen and i didn't have a clue what they meant either.

Don't really see the point in releasing results as only those in the know will understand them...surely all we need to know is if he Passed or failed - or am i simplifying things too much??

 

[Chuffy]

Looking at them (as someone with a bit of knowledge as a doctor) they are pretty meaningless

Obviously all within the normal range, but with quite a variation

The problem is the dates - there are 7 results seemingly at random intervals over a 4 month period, with eg 3 quite close together in December and nothing then until Februaury

The interesting bit to know (Jan 18-25th) when he was racing the Tour Down Under falls in this gap, so the results have been cherry picked without explanantion.

They also don't cover other things it would be nice to know (his hormone levels for example)

In the end just a few normal results with no meaning

Incidentally I know of no other cyclists who've published their own results although in the "Death of Pantini" book his blood results were published and were wildly abnormal

Interesting analysis there Mangaman.
IIRC a key part of the work with Catlin was to establish a 'baseline' for everything and constantly monitor it, starting from way back. These tests don't fulfill that promise and really their only purpose would seem to be a smokescreen to satisfy the easily pleased. They do NOT constitute the full program that Catlin was supposed to deliver.

Rasmussen published his blood values in 2007, after being thrown off the Tour and Garmin-Chipotle used to make their testing available to accredited journos. Not sure what they do now they've lost the ACE lab who were carrying out the work.

 

[Chuffy]

surely all we need to know is if he Passed or failed - or am i simplifying things too much??

Simple answer - yes.

Slightly longer answer is that dope testing isn't a simple yes/no thing, which is why long term monitoring of a whole range of values is required to establish if anything has changed suspiciously. A lot is due to inference from other values. A simple analogy would be with the way speeding is sometimes measured. If you time a car over a set distance (as is done on some stretches of motorway) then by checking the average speed you can see if the law has been broken. The weakness is that you can't tell if someone has broken the speed limit in limited bursts. Unless my understanding is way out, that applies fairly well to doping and dope testing.

"I have never failed a dope test" is not evidence of being clean....

 

[mangaman]

Interesting analaysis by you too Chuffy - I like your average speed analagy

What would be interesting would be a full list of blood parameters from December and January. Presumably he tests his blood every day / other day

It would be fascinating to see the "real-time" variations before/during and after a race (even one like the TDU)

It would give us a clue as to his physiological response to preparation, racing and recovery

Just posting some results from December and Feb is very much the Chuffy average speed camera analagy

Incidentally his haematocrit was at it's highest in the 1st week of February, a week after the race

 

[Noodley]

I know this may come as a surprise to you all but I actually subscribe to the LIVESTRONG website!!!

so do I. It's a hoot

 

[Crackle]

Incidentally his haematocrit was at it's highest in the 1st week of February, a week after the race

Right: But unless you can explain what happens physiologically to the body during extreme excercise then pointing that out is misleading unless you can also say what you'd expect to see. You're not an endoconologist are you? That would be useful, a sports endocrinologist

 

[Crackle]

On the page where his results are published have you read cycling12's comments?

Wow - to comment on the above quote, " People tend to forget that the man was a pro-triathlete at 16 years of age. It takes talent and genetic advantage at that age to compete in the most grueling one-day sport known to man!" Lance was a pro triathlete when the pool of triathletes was tiny and no he never competed in the most grueling one-day event, all his tri's where 1-2hr races. Why the jump to cycling, probably because his run splits would barely qualify him to be a pro triathlete today. It's amazing how naive the age-group side of the sport can be. Why no one even questions how Lance's cancer progressed so fast in the first place or was detected at any routine physical throughout the season. 1) Steroid use and HGH will accelerate tumor growth at a very rapid rate 2) His HCG was always in line (never his urine in the test tube) until he was finally diagnosed in Oct and his HCG count was through the roof (that doesn't happen overnight). I'm a pro triathlete who races around the world in a sport with 1/10th the money of cycling. The stories I could tell you of doping from last year alone would make you drop your jaw, but then again ignorance is bliss. I'll give you one little tidbit - It's very easy to have an HCT of 50-54 and make it look like 41-43 with plasma expanders - yes, plasma expanders that will not show up on any test or fancy chart. As for HGB, If you take epo for 2-3 weeks HGB will shoot up to 20-21 range then drop back down to normal levels while you maintain a nice elevated HCT of 50+ (or 41 with the right expanders). But oh no wouldn't the epo show up in a test!!! Back in the 90's 2-3 companies produce 1st generation epo, now there's 30-40 variants (more every month) made in 3rd world countries (India / Thailand) with an altered structure that will not appear on an classic epo test. Watch the tour and be amazed, but know that the athletes are YES still one step ahead.

It's stuff like that I need to know more about. Trying to even put in the right kind of searches in Google requires more knowledge than I have to even find the kind of stuff I need to read about, let alone understand.

 

[John the Monkey]

The Livestrong comments thread had an interesting post on it last night that said the values were nice to have, but didn't really prove anything either way in their current form. Interestingly, at the press conference where Mr. Armstrong described how he'd sought out Dr. Caitlin as the foremost expert in his field, stated that he wanted him to work on the test programme and viewed it as an "imperative" part of his return, Dr. Caitlin mentioned T/E ratios as an important metric (testosterone to epi-testosterone?) - currently missing from the published stuff.

In lots of ways, I don't care what Mr. Armstrong does/did - other than;
a) Not acting as though pro-cycling doesn't have a problem with PED.
Keeping the promises he made regarding testing through the season, pour encourager les autres.
c) Generally being a part of the solution.

I think I'm going to be disappointed.

From the press conference at Interbike last year (again);

With LeMond in the audience the questioning again turned to the anti-doping part of Armstrong's return. And with Armstrong pushing this aspect up front, it was not surprising. "I really try to seek out the most credible and well respected anti-doping crusader, especially here in the United States," Armstrong said about choosing Dr. Catlin. "It's a level of transparency that I didn't want to leave that box unchecked. So I signed with Don and he has a job to do. It is his job and not my job – I will subject myself to whatever he wants. Ultimately I think we as fans must get back to enjoying the race. Hopefully this helps, but there will always be people who question it."

In the latter part he goes on to say that he views this separate testing as "imperative".

So here we are. Liquigas pulls out of the ICPT rather than not sign Basso (who couldn't have ridden with them for another two years if they'd stayed). Floyd is back. Armstrong thinks fans who like Millar are hypocrites if they can't cheer Landis and Basso.

 

[girofan]

I know this may come as a surprise to you all but I actually subscribe to the LIVESTRONG website!!!

You can fool all people some of the time. Some people all of the time.
But you can't fool all people all of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!