2025 European Championships ***SPOILERS***
- Thread starter No Ta Doctor
- Start date
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OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
Just to say, the only reason we think Merckx is the GOAT is that the 2nd World War and Mussolini completely screwed Bartali*.
Won two TdFs, 10 years apart ('38 and '48) plus three Giros. Also won MSR 4 times and Lombardia 3 times. He won nothing after Italy entered the war in the summer of '40 (except a Lombardia that autumn), until the war was over, and was "out of favour" with the fascist government.
Obviously he had a productive war, smuggling false papers for Jews being hidden by the partisans
*I'm only half joking
Won two TdFs, 10 years apart ('38 and '48) plus three Giros. Also won MSR 4 times and Lombardia 3 times. He won nothing after Italy entered the war in the summer of '40 (except a Lombardia that autumn), until the war was over, and was "out of favour" with the fascist government.
Obviously he had a productive war, smuggling false papers for Jews being hidden by the partisans
*I'm only half joking
OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
In '22 when Vingegaard "Fentoned/Froomed" Roglic in the Dauphiné I said he would be a genuine vice-captain for Jumbo-Visma in the Tour, and was largely laughed at. By the end of the Tour people were worried it was going to be a Vingegaard walkover for the next five or six years.
I also said at the time that I hoped they hadn't beaten the attacking playfulness out of Pog. I think they did make him a more conservative rider in the end - especially after the first half of the Tour in '23 where they were constantly inviting him to race and the gap between the two (if not the race lead) fluctuated from stage to stage until the TT.
In '22 Jonas definitely had a high mountain /heat /long climb advantage of over Pog and they amplified it by e.g. getting Pog to spend his matches unwisely on Granon. He was then chasing and attacking wildly at every opportunity while Vingegaard sat on his wheel, so that on Hautacam Van Aert was able to drop him for Vingegaard to take the stage and a big chunk of time. Jonas then rubbed it in during the TT, where he eased off on the final climb to gift it to Van Aert while still beating Pog.
That was pretty much the genesis of the "you can knacker Pog out / get him to bonk" theory.
In '23 things were a lot closer until the 3rd week TT. Pog picks up some seconds here and there in a tough opening week in the Basque while A. Yates is in yellow, but Vingegaard looks like he's put it to bed on stage 5 to Laruns, taking a full minute on him. Pog takes half of that back the very next day, and then chips a few more off a couple of stages later and again a couple more after that. The Vingegaard blows it all up in the stage 16 TT - they start the day with just 10" between them in GC and by the end of it Pog is buried. He dies the next day, losing nearly 6 minutes, possible bonk or issue but quite possibly just broken mentally.
And that's pretty much the genesis of the "you can get Pog to crack in the third week" theory.
Pog was obviously a little undercooked in '23 following the LBL crash, but the incessant attacking to close just a few seconds on Vingegaard also cost him. Opinion was fairly mixed as to whether Jonas had Pog's number, or whether Pog would have had a lot more in the bag if it wasn't for the crash.
'24 It's Jonas's turn to be undercooked after a bad crash, hoped to find something in the third week but it never materialised. He still managed to nick a stage where Pog forgot to eat and also showed that despite the crash he could still descend - Pog quicker on fast bits (more kgs) Jonas making up ground on the tech sections. Pog absolutely puts the boot in from the second week on, winning a hatful of stages and taking big chunks of time over and over again.
'25 Visma come to try the old tricks again, get Pog burning his matches for a few seconds early on, hit him with what they can at altitude / heat / 3rd week. Unfortunately Pog had worked on the heat and altitude issues and wasn't prone to biting on the "let's race" carrot - leaving lots of escapees to claim stages he could have won. He'd also worked on seated power, allowing him to attack with far less stress and far quicker recovery - just riding everyone off his wheel. Jonas had a put a bit more muscle on and was closer in the sprinty puncheur bits, but he'd lost advantage in the bigger climbs and Pog raced smart and conservative and clearly hated every moment of it. Jonas had some bad days, which will leave him with some "what ifs?" but didn't look like he had the measure of Pog at any point. The last mountain stage might have offered hope for a hail Mary, but he was already too far behind and with the stage shortened there was no chance of using it for the GC in any meaningful way.
At this point it looks like Jonas's goose is cooked, it's difficult to see where he can make up ground. His natural advantage in the high mountains has been reversed fairly conclusively and Pog is now taking the GC as a serious endeavour, rather than winning it by having fun on his bike, so he doesn't look dislodgeable by bonk/overattacking-exhaustion
I have no idea why I just typed out this TdF summary essay, guess I was bored. Probably should have been watching the Coppa Bernocchi - GP Banco BPM. Hopefully someone finds it vaguely interesting.
N0bodyOfTheGoat
Über Member
- Location
- Hampshire, UK
Summary of above, Pog improved, Vin lost a bit of spark to date since his crash? 
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
In short.
22 Jonas won by bullying team tactics against flamboyant Pog on col de Granon: Boring.
23 Jonas won with a monster TT: Boring
24 & 25 Pog won by being too good: Boring
22 Jonas won by bullying team tactics against flamboyant Pog on col de Granon: Boring.
23 Jonas won with a monster TT: Boring
24 & 25 Pog won by being too good: Boring
Pross
Veteran
The only reason we think Merckx was the GOAT is that he was a 200lb carp in the village duck pond. As an example, the 1974 TdF had riders from just 9 nations, only 5 countries had double figure numbers of riders and 102 of the 130 starters came from just 3 countries (France, Belgium and Spain). In the 72 editions raced up to 1985 the winners had come from just 6 nations, so far since the turn of the century there have been winners from 8 nations in the 20 that still stand (9 from 26 if you include a certain American) and of those nations only 3 were amongst the pre-1985 winning nations. The sport has become so much more global and professional, I doubt prime Merckx would be anywhere near as successful these days and almost certainly wouldn't be able to bully his rivals as he was allowed to back then.
wakemalcolm
Legendary Member
- Location
- Ratho
For me the reason Vingegaard won in '22 was that his team had a plausible alternative winner in Rogic and an isolated Pog had to chase them both. Since then there's not really been a level playing field edition.
Until a team goes in with 2 evenly matched, selfless, and good enough leaders, a fit Pog will prevail.
Until a team goes in with 2 evenly matched, selfless, and good enough leaders, a fit Pog will prevail.
OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
Summary of above, Pog improved, Vin lost a bit of spark to date since his crash?
Well I like to think t least some of it was about or perceptions of the race at the time, but otherwise: fair
I think it probably goes further than that now - I don't think there really is a credible alternative winner at the moment - Pog can ignore pretty much anybody other than Jonas for now and knows it. He's not even bothered by Remco, he only has eyes for Jonas. Also, while Pog did chase Roglic on the Granon he should have probably been a little more circumspect there - Roglic was clearly still carrying an injury and nearly three minutes down, he shouldn't have been anything to worry about and his DSs should have told him as much. Instead they let him panic and he shipped nearly three minutes to Vingegaard, and G cruised past him on the climb. Between the finish on Granon (11) and the start of the Hautacam stage he manages to find 4 seconds on Jonas, from winning the stage before with Jonas on his wheel. That's despite attacking at every opportunity. Again, his DSs should have calmed him down and tried to set up something more useful - though he didn't have much of a team at that point. But that's why Vingegaard was able to take over a minute again on Hautacam
M.R.M
Well-Known Member
Didn't those 2 Tour losses also constitute the coaching change for Pogacar. If I remember correctly he was coached previously by Inigo San Milan and doing long zone 2 rides predominantly (which I find baffling, since cycling training has been extensively researched). After the change he is doing much, much more intensity which has contributed to the rather massive improvement and his increased dominance.
This sounds as plausible as Novak Djokovic cutting out gluten and suddenly being the best in the world.
OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
I thought this was all some made up bullschiesse from an internet weirdo (not you, MRM. Some other weirdo
). Some guy that got a huge amount of publicity and following on Twitter for claiming he had all the details on Pog's training, when it was basically guesswork, some public knowledge and just rubbish for the rest
mididoctors
Über Member
Roglic deserves a bit of credit ...wrecked himself too that day
OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
Oh he was incredible, came in completely broken at 11:30 and by the time he abandoned a few stages later was over half an hour down
OP
OP
No Ta Doctor
Über Member
Apologies, I seem to have made a post of only one sentence, I don't know what's come over me. It's nearly 1am here but that's a poor excuse. I'll try and produce several pages of text tomorrow to make up for it.
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matticus
Guru
View: https://youtu.be/Fj8RTbOb8l0?si=yzPbN709Mp6AXv_P
Amazing sportsman*ship from Anna 👍
*wotever...
