Betting on Bernie

[mickle]

I'm not a gambling man, but I thought this was worth a punt. I put £10 on Bernie Sanders for the presidency at 12/1 with Paddy Power. By the time I got around to playing my £30 worth of free bets he was at 20/1! If he makes the white house I'll pocket £730! Woop - Go Bernie!

He's now at 8/1 so at least the bookies think he's heading in the right direction, if not the American media.

 

[Markymark]

Betting odds are only partly based on likelihood of winning but also based on number of bets being placed. The bookies stack the odds so no matter who wins they'll be in profit overall.

 

[Debade]

I'm not a gambling man, but I thought this was worth a punt. I put £10 on Bernie Sanders for the presidency at 12/1 with Paddy Power. By the time I got around to playing my £30 worth of free bets he was at 20/1! If he makes the white house I'll pocket £730! Woop - Go Bernie!

He's now at 8/1 so at least the bookies think he's heading in the right direction, if not the American media.

If you win, you need to take some of the money and buy Bernie a bike. Vermont is a great place for biking and so is DC. He will just need to encourage the Secret Service to get bikes so they can keep up with him.

Still a long way to go but Bernie would be a great candidate.

 

[mickle]

 

[Gravity Aided]

You have to take into account the Democratic convention and the awarding of the number of delegates to said convention, as well as super-delegates, and state election rules. Some states have winner take all delegate contests, and some are awarded proportionally by percentage. Mrs. Clinton is far ahead in these aspects. Senator Sanders can still win, but it would be a lot higher odds than what you are being given. If Senator Sanders wins New York, that may change odds all over.

 

[mickle]

Bernie now at 16/1 and a Reuters poll puts him ahead of Hillary..

 

[srw]

Bernie now at 16/1 and a Reuters poll puts him ahead of Hillary..

Bit of a shame there isn't actually going to be a first past the post poll between Sanders and Clinton...

In order to collect on these bets (which I suspect are being priced down by the strength of feeling of many domestic and foreign Sandersites) you need two unlikely events to happen. First Sanders needs to negotiate his way through the treacherous waters of the barking mad US Democractic primary system, New York state, California, superdelegates and all. And then he needs to beat whoever the Republicans choose, in a nationwide barking mad presidential election featuring an electoral college, massive gerrymandering and hanging chads.

I wish him well, but think he hasn't got a prayer.

(This isn't the thread for it, but I think he'd be a rotten president - although his policies are interesting and would drag the US into the 21st century with the rest of the world, we'd look back on a Sanders presidency and think that Obama was a master of managing Congress and made a huge difference.)

 

[mickle]

25/1!

 

[swee'pea99]

Couple of bits from Hadley Freeman's column in the most recent Guardian mag:

She also cited a recent interview in which he was quizzed on his core promise to break up the banks, from which 'it was clear that he had no idea 1) what the banks are, 2) how to do this, or 3) what the repercussions would be.'

I too would hesitate to bet on Bernie, even at 'good' odds. But then again, who would have put money on that nice Mr Corbyn actually becoming leader of the Labour party? And as for Leicester City winning the Premiership!

 

[mickle]

He was at 20/1 for an age and now 16/1. Heading in the right direction!

 

[srw]

You're about to lose your tenner. He's got absolutely no chance now that Clinton has been confirmed (mathematically) as the Democrat candidate.

 

[shouldbeinbed]

I though you were on about this story and it all being a cunning ruse to give Bernie a lifetime achievement award.

 

[Drago]

I never put my money on the commies, even if he does seem to be a fairly sensible one