Brian Smith pontificates on Normalised Power

[Bollo]

Listening to the commentary on today's ToB stage, Brian Smith was holding forth on the power output of one of the Bike Channel Canyon riders - sorry that I didn't pick up the name. The team had released power data for the rider with a 350W normalised power and a 270W average power, give or take, for Stage 2.

Brian seemed to attribute the difference to 'inexperience', which kinda jarred with me. If it were a flatfish TT I could understand the point, but on your standard rolling UK route riding in or around a peloton I'd expect quite a variation in power output depending on the ups and downs of the terrain and where and when a rider chose to hide in the group or put himself in the wind. Depending on the dynamics of the stage, these variations would easily cause the spread between normalised and average power without having to invoke 'inexperience'.

So, Brian Smith - bullshooting to fill airtime or he has a point?

FWIW, I've only got experience of the two extremes, riding crits (generally very on-off with the power) and TTs (ideally steady-as-possible power) and only at the very amateur end of things, so I can't claim to be any sort of expert on road/stage racing.

 

[Joffey]

He's an ex-DS isn't he? He should know what he's on about... hopefully!!

 

[Bollo]

Isn't autocorrect brill?

If you knew how pished I was when I wrote that! I'm going to leave it in and possibly even copyright the 'Flatfish TT'.

 

[Bollo]

He's an ex-DS isn't he? He should know what he's on about... hopefully!!

I know this is a fairly rarified question and it's probably only of interest to number-wonks like me. I can empty a room by holding forth on the uses, abuses and limitations of metrics like FTP, Normalised Power, Training Stress Balance and the rest.

My BS meter gave a little flicker when Brian came out with his criticism. Any bald statement like 'this average-NP spread shows inexperience' without any context or control comparisons is unfair at best.

Yeah Smith, I'm calling you out on an internet forum! Bring it on!!!!

 

[Crackle]

Just a hunch but it could be a short thread this one. We can normalise it against your longer threads though.

 

[BurningLegs]

Like @Dogtrousers , I'm not really familiar with normalised vs average power and I'm not a racer so I'm not too fussed.

However - I personally dislike Brian Smith as a commentator. I can't quite put my finger on exactly why, but I just really don't enjoy listening to his commentary! I much prefer the team that ITV have on LA Vuelta compared to the ToB team, but I suppose that's to be expected with the profile of each race.

 

[Tin Pot]

Listening to the commentary on today's ToB stage, Brian Smith was holding forth on the power output of one of the Bike Channel Canyon riders - sorry that I didn't pick up the name. The team had released power data for the rider with a 350W normalised power and a 270W average power, give or take, for Stage 2.

Brian seemed to attribute the difference to 'inexperience', which kinda jarred with me. If it were a flatfish TT I could understand the point, but on your standard rolling UK route riding in or around a peloton I'd expect quite a variation in power output depending on the ups and downs of the terrain and where and when a rider chose to hide in the group or put himself in the wind. Depending on the dynamics of the stage, these variations would easily cause the spread between normalised and average power without having to invoke 'inexperience'.

So, Brian Smith - bullshooting to fill airtime or he has a point?

FWIW, I've only got experience of the two extremes, riding crits (generally very on-off with the power) and TTs (ideally steady-as-possible power) and only at the very amateur end of things, so I can't claim to be any sort of expert on road/stage racing.

My opening position would be that theoretically he would be right.

As are you - it's easier on a flat TT.

Nevertheless, the avg power is 20% below normalised. If he was 'on it' at the front and backing off a touch in the peloton I'd estimate the avg power could be nearer 10% less than normalised in a road race.

Interested to hear real world examples though...

 

[Bollo]

My opening position would be that theoretically he would be right.

As are you - it's easier on a flat TT.

Nevertheless, the avg power is 20% below normalised. If he was 'on it' at the front and backing off a touch in the peloton I'd estimate the avg power could be nearer 10% less than normalised in a road race.

Interested to hear real world examples though...

@Tin Pot's my man! That was my point - without any context who's to tell what's "good" or "bad" in terms of the difference between AP and NP? I don't think the rider in question was in a break, but he might have been towing his sprinter, up front forcing the pace or hanging out at the back picking his nose a la Steve Cummings. They're all perfectly valid ways of riding a race and would all give different power profiles. This kind of wonkery on a bog-standard sprint stage doesn't say anything much about the rider's abilities and certainly doesn't win the stage. And that's before you get into the myriad assumptions and approximations that get wrapped up in relatively simple equations.

I suspect Brian was struggling to say anything interesting, someone brought up the rider's power figures for the previous stage and he got a bit carried away.

Just a hunch but it could be a short thread this one. We can normalise it against your longer threads though.

I was going for 40 pages + locked + bans. Too ambitious?

 

[Tin Pot]

@Tin Pot's my man! That was my point - without any context who's to tell what's "good" or "bad" in terms of the difference between AP and NP? I don't think the rider in question was in a break, but he might have been towing his sprinter, up front forcing the pace or hanging out at the back picking his nose a la Steve Cummings. They're all perfectly valid ways of riding a race and would all give different power profiles. This kind of wonkery on a bog-standard sprint stage doesn't say anything much about the rider's abilities and certainly doesn't win the stage. And that's before you get into the myriad assumptions and approximations that get wrapped up in relatively simple equations.

I suspect Brian was struggling to say anything interesting, someone brought up the rider's power figures for the previous stage and he got a bit carried away.


I was going for 40 pages + locked + bans. Too ambitious?

Huh.

Funny story - I just checked and I only have one properly recorded long distance race ride, IronmanUK this July. My Avg Power was exactly 10% less than my NP.