Can you spot a Traitor ?

[Ming the Merciless]

Brilliant wasn’t it!

 

[YMFB]

I enjoyed it, but felt it was a foregone conclusion that UK TVs most annoying person would win.

Joe for next PM

 

[wakemalcolm]

After successfully nailing Jonathan and Cat plus pretty much calling out Alan, I can't understand how Nick could have thought Joe was a traitor.

I guess it's all in the edit.

 

[wakemalcolm]

Although the main mystery to me is: how can a man on a 40 grand retainer for a week of work not get his glasses sorted to they sit straight on his face?

 

[markemark]

Still think it shows that's it's virtually impossible to work out. Even if someone works it out it is meaningless as they'll never be able to get enough to believe them.

Due to the fact that traitors are replaced in the bulk of the episodes, the show is designed to have at least 1 (and usually 2) traitors in the final. From that point, statistically, it is highly likely that a traitor will be left in the end which is the results of the multiple versions around the world. I would suggest that if the round table is done randomly, the results across the shows would be roughly the same.

I enjoy it for the spectacle but as a game of strategy, it is random stacked in the traitor's favour and no amount of skill or deduction can change that.

 

[Beebo]

Still think it shows that's it's virtually impossible to work out. Even if someone works it out it is meaningless as they'll never be able to get enough to believe them.

Due to the fact that traitors are replaced in the bulk of the episodes, the show is designed to have at least 1 (and usually 2) traitors in the final. From that point, statistically, it is highly likely that a traitor will be left in the end which is the results of the multiple versions around the world. I would suggest that if the round table is done randomly, the results across the shows would be roughly the same.

I enjoy it for the spectacle but as a game of strategy, it is random stacked in the traitor's favour and no amount of skill or deduction can change that.

It’s massively stacked in the Traitors favour.
I suspect people will be writing university Masters about it.
But the best tactic for a Traitor is to stay quiet. Oddly, the best tactic for a faithful is to vote out the people who are staying quiet.
Other than Joe the final was populated by people who hadn’t said much all week.

 

[markemark]

It’s massively stacked in the Traitors favour.
I suspect people will be writing university Masters about it.
But the best tactic for a Traitor is to stay quiet. Oddly, the best tactic for a faithful is to vote out the people who are staying quiet.
Other than Joe the final was populated by people who hadn’t said much all week.

I just don't think it makes any difference. The traitors murder people where it is impossible to work out any strategy as they will bluff or double bluff. Kicking out a traitor again is meaningless as they're just replaced. I suspect it is random who gets to the end apart from the game design meaning 1 or 2 traitors are always there. From that point it is again random who is left but statistically it is likely 1+ traitors are left.

There might be some strategy in keeping yourself to the end by keeping quiet, or friendly. But the traitors will kill people off based on their own strategy, which is again, pretty random.

There must be dozens of these shows now aired around the world. I reckon there's absolutely no thread of strategy that works, that it is all random, but stacked in the traitors' favour.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

I didn’t watch it but I’m pleased to hear that my favourite heritage railway (Strathspey) is doing so well out of it, I believe it had a ‘starring role’ in the finale.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

There must be dozens of these shows now aired around the world. I reckon there's absolutely no thread of strategy that works, that it is all random, but stacked in the traitors' favour.

I think your best chance is gut instinct and being able to read people. Joe Marler had them sussed. They only lost because David and Nick massively overly intellectualised it and ended up trying to guess some hypothetical triple bluff. If they had just trusted Joe they'd have won. I do think there was a bit of intellectual snobbery at play.

 

[markemark]

I think your best chance is gut instinct and being able to read people. Joe Marler had them sussed. They only lost because David and Nick massively overly intellectualised it and ended up trying to guess some hypothetical triple bluff. If they had just trusted Joe they'd have won. I do think there was a bit of intellectual snobbery at play.

He may have done, and he did well. But then its virtually impossible to get enough on side to enact it - as was shown last night. The others were either traitors spreading lies or didn't trust him either. He sussed it but was still kicked out. I think if you have 6 people left and it is a common held belief that there are 2 traitors, then it is likely that one would guess the correct two just by chance (can't be arsed to do the maths).

The game-playing by Joe was given plenty of airtime in the edit to enable the last moment switcheroo of him being kicked out and making great TV. I suspect David and Nick were also working out the likely scenarios, but this wasn't shown. I believe that they all had their theories and it was by chance (probably a reasonable chance) that one was correct, and the show narrative was made in the edit for maximum impact.

Your point about the snobbery is valid though - I hadn't noticed that. David was hilarious. Very in depth analysis - and wrong almost all of the time

 

[Beebo]

Apparently there have been over 40 series around the world.
Traitors win 65% of the time but only make up 20% of the players.
So heavily weighted in their favour.

 

[markemark]

Apparently there have been over 40 series around the world.
Traitors win 65% of the time but only make up 20% of the players.
So heavily weighted in their favour.

Again, can do the maths but would take me a long time. But if there's 5 left and 2 are traitors, there if they stick with 5, there's a 0% chance of a faifthful win.
If there's 4 then again 0 % chance of a faithful win
If there's 3 left my quick sums of getting out the 2 traitors is 2/5 * 1/4 which is 10% chance of a faithful win.
If you are down to 2, then I am guessing around 30% chance of a faithful win as you can lose one faithful in your search for the 2 traitors. I I think it might be the same as picking 2 faithful's at random from 3 out of 5 which would be 3/5 x 2/4 = 30% - I 'm sure someone smarter than me can quickly work it out but I suspect it is about right.

That to me means the best strategy is to keep kicking people out until there's the minimum 2. At that point it's around 2:1 there's a traitor which matches your stat.

So again, I think there's no skill and the success rate is around the same as if it were randomly chosen. This makes me very sure it is random and there's no skill or strategy involved. It is weighted s such because the producers ensure there's 2 traitors left in the final by allowing the traitors to recruit when one gets knocked out early on.