Causation

[zimzum42]

A few people on this forum could learn a thing or two from this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7592579.stm

"Whenever ice cream sales rise, so do shark attacks. As more economists are recruited to the Treasury, inflation rises. In his fifth lesson of a weekly series, author Michael Blastland gives hints about reading too much into "correlated" facts.
Lesson Five: Causation
The story: The smoking ban in Wales "caused" a 13% fall in heart attacks from October to December 2007, compared with the same period in 2006.
The flaw: The ban began in April. So did it also "cause" the rise in heart attacks in the first few months after the ban? And presumably it "caused" me to spill my tea. For that happened during the smoking ban too.
The lesson: This is a foolish case of a simple error - the assumption that things happening after an event must be caused by it."

 

[ChrisKH]

In other words, extrapolate at your own risk.

 

[Canrider]

All five of those are great articles.

 

[alecstilleyedye]

causality </pedant>

 

[dodgy]

Causation has also been used/abused by pro/anti climate change types.

 

[Mr Pig]

Common sense has little place in the world today. It doesn't make for good TV.

 

[Kirstie]

Bad science is everywhere...

 

[marinyork]

Ahem, **cough** **cough** mechanisms and physical theory. Actually surprised the smoking one didn't attract complaints as there have been interesting small scale results elsewhere in the world and proposed mechanism for why it might lead to a decline in deaths.

 

[Haitch]

__________________
We must go forward, not backwards, upward not forwards, and always twirling, twirling towards freedom. End communication.

Shouldn't that be upward not downward?

 

[marinyork]

Perhaps you're right AlanH. It's been a long time since I saw that episode.

 

[Haitch]

Perhaps you're right AlanH. It's been a long time since I saw that episode.

Erm, I dunno. I'd never heard it before but of all the Google hits, only a couple say "downward" rather than "forward".

[ignorance] "Episode" of what, may I ask?

 

[marinyork]

Oh right, well it might google like that as it is a parody. It's from an episode of the Simpsons that spoofs the 1996 US Presidential Election.