I wonder where the future of E bikes lay

[johnnyb47]

Hi to all.
Today I was thinking about were the future of E Bikes will be in another ten years time. They will no doubt drop considerably in price ,as to where they may fall into the category favoured by people wishing for easy , cheap transport for commuting. At the moment they are quite expensive and generally the folk who buy them take there time ,and choose wisely before parting with a wedge of hard earned cash. In the future there will no doubt be lots of them up for sale second hand, and selling very cheaply. With the way technology is going at the moment replacement batteries will also become cheap and no doubt be more efficient. I personally think the E bike will become very popular in the market where people are not interested in cycling as a hobby or fitness interest, but they will be looked upon as an alternative form of transportation from the car, that will be frowned upon because of there running costs, congestion problems, and parking issues..This all sounds great news for the future of 2 wheels and the environment, but I do think that new problems will arise from it. As we all know these electric bike can easily be modified to travel at much greater speeds than there restricted 15mph and as they become more easily accessible to the masses I think there will be an epidemic in cases where people will be causing problems on speeding E bikes. I've just been watching a few you tube clips and some of these E bikes can easily be modified to travel at speeds of 30mph +. Where I live, I know for a fact I could most probably ride an illegally unrestricted e bike on the road all day long without anybody batting an eye purely because it's sparsely populated but I can imagine young teenagers would be become attracted to a culture of "who,s" got the fastest e bike. With no registration system on bikes it would make it very difficult for the Police to catch or identity any body breaking the law on these bikes. So where would this lead to the future of E bikes in the future. Would the authorities introduce a registration and require some sort of identification plate for the E bike..I also wonder if there will be an explosion of antisocial use of these bikes as the technology of them progresses over the coming years . It would be a shame to see what is now deemed as a green and environmental path towards our future ,have cold water poured on it because of the antisocial issues may cause by the few..
If your still awake after reading these drivel I applaud you :-))

 

[Drago]

I think a decrease in price, and an increase in endurance and quality will be the commercial future. As to the kiddies, that's anyones guess, though your 1984 scenario sounds plausible.

 

[classic33]

The restriction applies to power by the battery and motor alone. Nothing to stop you adding your own personal power via the pedals.

 

[dim]

when congestion charges are introduced in Cambridge (which will be soon) , E-Bike sales will soar (lately, I've also noticed a lot more older folk on Bromptons .... people who I never saw before on the cycle routes into the city... they must be fed up with the crap bus service and the high parking costs ...

we already have a few E-Bike dealers here in Cambridge

 

[MarkF]

I had one last year, bought for commuting, but now I use Suzuki RV125. It's far more viable transportation, so IMO, ebikes have long, long way to go considering a 100mpg/65mph, 2 seater motorbike is cheaper to own and run and is far more useful.

My thoughts.
Prices have to to drop.
They need to be "future proof", potential buyers have to feel confident they can be upgraded as battery technology improves.
Improved residuals (see above).
Stop trying to sell me a bike I wouldn't be seen dead riding.

Like this, and design is where I think the big players are going wrong. Who "wants" to spend a large sum of money on something that looks horrible? I have other bicycles that I own, if I wanted a bike like Mary Poppins would ride then I'd already have a normally powered one. Anyway.....cyclists alone are not going to grow this market significantly, but the other (necessary) customers are not remotely interested in cycling or bicycles, so why keep trying to sell them something that screams (friggin horrible) "bicycle"?

If a quality ebike like this was around £1.2k then I'd buy one tomorrow. That's what I paid for mint RV125.

 

[snorri]

. Who "wants" to spend a large sum of money on something that looks horrible?
If a quality ebike like this was around £1.2k then I'd buy one tomorrow.

You caught me out there MarkF!
I thought the pic was of "something that looks horrible", then I continued to read.

 

[MarkF]

I've had an ebike debate at work many times, it's a place of 1000's of employees but only a handful (definitely less than 5) regularly cycle in, that's because it's an extremely arduous commute from every direction. With parking a nightmare and with an ongoing battle with local residents, it's the perfect place for ebikes to be sold.

I know 2 employees who used ebikes a couple of years ago, both gave up, one kept suffering broken spokes, but I reckon the main reason was that both had the piss taken, mercilessly.

If I show them a regular ebike, their eyes glaze over, they couldn't care less, it's a bicycle (obviously), something they are just not and never will be, interested in. If I show them the Spanish ebike (above), their eyes light up, it's cool, it looks more like a motorbike than a bicycle and they can imagine themselves riding it, they even want one. If it was affordable.

I found a pic of my ebike, the original owner paid £600, I bought it hardly used for £50, look at it!!!

 

[MarkF]

I think the big 4 Japanese motorcycle manufacturers are way ahead in responding to congestion and transportation costs. The Honda Grom has been a worldwide sales success and the others all have a similar bike planned, the Kawasaki KSR110 is now out & selling well. Cheap to buy, 100+mpg, all the suburban performance you need and with good residual values, best of all, they look and are, fun.

 

[Pale Rider]

There seems to be an assumption ebikes will be like some other electronic goodies which have decreased in price at the same time as improving.

The facts don't bear this out.

Motor development is going all but nowhere, efficiency is stubbornly static, and motors remain heavy and made from expensive raw materials.

The pace of battery development is also glacial, lithium was a step forward, but batteries remain big, heavy and made from expensive raw materials.

Every few months there's publicity for a laboratory project which looks promising, but never sees the light of day.

A lot of the cost of an expensive ebike is standard bike bits, so unless you believe a £1,000 push bike is going to be £500 in two years, there's no reason to suppose an ebike will get any cheaper.

in common with other mostly imported consumer goods, prices have gone up recently due to Brexit and a weak pound.

As @MarkF found, ebikes are not quite as good as commuters for the masses as they first appear to be.

For anything more than a few miles a moped/scooter will be faster and possibly cheaper overall.

Taking away the very short journeys for which you might as well use a pushbike leaves ebikes operating in a very small space.

 

[chriswoody]

You need to pop over here if you want to see the future today. E bikes are quite popular in Germany and come in all shapes and sizes, including folding bikes.

It's quite common to see older folk commuting on them or using them as day to day transport to get to the shops.

 

[DRHysted]

Quite liked the electric thing Guy Martin built in China, but I suspect that would be classed as a motor vehicle over here. This needing tax insurance mot and registration, which defeats the aim really.

 

[MarkF]

Quite liked the electric thing Guy Martin built in China, but I suspect that would be classed as a motor vehicle over here. This needing tax insurance mot and registration, which defeats the aim really.

But, road tax & insurance for me came in at sub £100, and that was starting afresh as I'd lost all my NCB running around on a vintage scooter. I reckon any ebike will lose far more than that in value each year.

As @MarkF found, ebikes are not quite as good as commuters for the masses as they first appear to be.

For anything more than a few miles a moped/scooter will be faster and possibly cheaper overall.

Taking away the very short journeys for which you might as well use a pushbike leaves ebikes operating in a very small space.

I suppose having to gain a license is a huge detterent to car drivers wanting cheaper commuting costs via mopeds/125's? But the ebike sellers cannot (particularly in the image conscious UK) keep trying to flog horrible looking, yet disproportionately expensive, bicycles to the masses.

I used to believe in them as the future of short commuting, until I owned one.

Edit:- Getting a motorbike license is way cheaper than I thought, about £250.

 

[Pale Rider]

The look of ebikes is improving, although there will always be a motor and battery somewhere.

This Cube mountain bike has the battery and motor 'disguised' in the design:

https://www.cube.eu/uk/2017/e-bike-...ction-hybrid-hpa-sl-500-rednflashorange-2017/

As regards commuters, lots of straightforward flat looking bar hybrid ebikes, including this Cube.

https://www.cube.eu/uk/2017/e-bike-trekking/delhi-hybrid/cube-delhi-hybrid-400-greynlime-2017/