Medical Science Question

[JtB]

The one in a million risk is probably averaged out for the population as a whole. From an individual perspective there might be factors at play that increase the risk for that individual in which case if an individual had an adverse reaction first time around then one could argue that the risk of that individual having an adverse reaction the second time could be considerably higher than one in a million.

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

one could argue

I agree. But is the argument a valid one based on "studies"?

 

[C R]

I agree. But is the argument a valid one based on "studies"?

I think the caveat is that the figure needs to be understood as a population average, so probably only valid for an individual until the first time that individual suffers the side effect. Then it would need to be established why they suffered the side effect, to see if it was truly a random event or there's a reason why that particular individual was affected.

 

[cougie uk]

No idea but if this is a Covid related question - I think you'd be given a different vaccine if you had complications. Is there three in the UK ?

 

[slowmotion]

The one in a million risk is probably averaged out for the population as a whole. From an individual perspective there might be factors at play that increase the risk for that individual in which case if an individual had an adverse reaction first time around then one could argue that the risk of that individual having an adverse reaction the second time could be considerably higher than one in a million.

Spot on.

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

I think the caveat is that the figure needs to be understood as a population average, so probably only valid for an individual until the first time that individual suffers the side effect. Then it would need to be established why they suffered the side effect, to see if it was truly a random event or there's a reason why that particular individual was affected.

Yes the 1 in 1 million is a population average. So your thinking is that the unlucky might be biologically prone but there may also be some randomness too? So genes with some random environmental contribution maybe?

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

No idea but if this is a Covid related question - I think you'd be given a different vaccine if you had complications. Is there three in the UK ?

It's not a specific Covid vaccine question. But your implication is that a different treatment for the unlucky is indicated. Hence a biological quirk of the individual.

 

[400ixl]

The chances of something happening are influenced by 1) your genetics, 2) your lifestyle (diet etc) and 3) environmental / external influences.

So if the cause of you being the 1 in a million is genetic for example, the chance of it happening again is much higher than 1 in a million. If it is lifestyle or environment and these have not changed then again the risk is higher.

If the cause is truly random and not directly correlated to one of the above then your odds are still the same.

There is no easy answer without a huge amount of more detail.

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

Spot on.

slowmo - have you changed your thinking?

 

[KnittyNorah]

Good. That's what I'm driving at I think. Are these side effects truly random at the individual level?

They do sometimes appear to be so, superficially - but when looked at in detail it is vanishingly-rare that they are. Better to consider that the vanishingly-rare ones are, merely, currently unexplained rather than random.

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

The chances of something happening are influenced by 1) your genetics, 2) your lifestyle (diet etc) and 3) environmental / external influences.

So if the cause of you being the 1 in a million is genetic for example, the chance of it happening again is much higher than 1 in a million. If it is lifestyle or environment and these have not changed then again the risk is higher.

If the cause is truly random and not directly correlated to one of the above then your odds are still the same.

There is no easy answer without a huge amount of more detail.

Excellent. Just wondering if side effects are ever really random at the individual level - in the general(?) way of these things. But having more knowledge and detail is the way these effects can be separated

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

They do sometimes appear to be so, superficially - but when looked at in detail it is vanishingly-rare that they are. Better to consider that the vanishingly-rare ones are, merely, currently unexplained rather than random.

That's interesting. Always cause and effect at the individual level.

 

[Milzy]

I’ve had 2 jabs & won’t have a 3rd. How effective is my double vax year after year? In 10 years time what protection have you got?

 

[slowmotion]

slowmo - have you changed your thinking?

Yes. It's the difference between a population's chances and an individual's chances.

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

Yes. It's the difference between a population's chances and an individuals chances.

Good. That's what I was driving at