Paris-Roubaix (Femmes et Hommes) 2026 ***Spoilers***

[misforturob]

Been catching up with the full race this week. The number of punctures for the favorites seems unprecedented - so what gives? The only explanation I've heard is that the increase in speed increases the impact against the cobbles so more impact flats. But in theory running tubeless should reduce the number of impact/pinch flats. Something doesn't add up 🤔

 

[Dogtrousers]

Been catching up with the full race this week. The number of punctures for the favorites seems unprecedented - so what gives? The only explanation I've heard is that the increase in speed increases the impact against the cobbles so more impact flats. But in theory running tubeless should reduce the number of impact/pinch flats. Something doesn't add up 🤔

The number of punctures seems to be proportional to the number of short videos going round featuring new cobble-beating anti puncture gadgets that the teams will be using.

 

[Pross]

Been catching up with the full race this week. The number of punctures for the favorites seems unprecedented - so what gives? The only explanation I've heard is that the increase in speed increases the impact against the cobbles so more impact flats. But in theory running tubeless should reduce the number of impact/pinch flats. Something doesn't add up 🤔

Not sure there were that many more but most of the favourites had them. I think the main issue with tubeless is that you can't keep riding until you find a mechanic like you could a lot of the time with tubs. That said, it was probably the higher quality pictures and camera angles but some of the pave looked rougher than usual.

 

[matticus]

Not sure there were that many more but most of the favourites had them.

Yes, I've not heard any comment from the peleton that punctures were above usual numbers.
Remember VdeP punctured in his final winning break last year!

I think the main issue with tubeless is that you can't keep riding until you find a mechanic like you could a lot of the time with tubs.

This is something that's rarely mentioned now - probably because the manufacturers won't say anything against their new product (and most roadies are now using them, so they won't say anything against them either!)
It seems hard to argue that with tubs, VdeP could have ridden out of the Arenberg section and got a new wheel (and/or bike) from his team. Would have been race-changing.
_________________________
Does anyone know why they changed the rules this year to no team helpers within the Arenberg secteur?

 

[Dogtrousers]

Got a bit of time on my hands so here are some pointless stats.

The cut off was +8% of the winner's time (+ 25 min 21 sec). There was one OTL rider, Alastair Mackellar who was nearly 4 mins outside that at 29:19.

Mackellar's overall speed was amost exactly the same (fractionally slower) than Greg van Avermaert's winning 2017 speed and was faster than Sagan, Gilbert or Colbrelli (2018,19,21)

I suppose I should factor in the weather somehow.

 

[misforturob]

Remember VdeP punctured in his final winning break last year!

Sure but that's one puncture in his three wins (can't remember any others but of course there may have been), then 2 just in the Arenberg this year. Plus Pog 2, WvA 2, Ganna 3...

 

[matticus]

Got a bit of time on my hands so here are some pointless stats.

I hope you know I have the utmost respect for your pointless stats!

But I do think these "average speed" figures being bandied around are missing a key aspect: until recently the first 120km would be raced a t a relative snails-pace. How else would breakaways get 3-4 minutes ahead? (This isn't Roubaix-specific of course - you can see the same thing in all pro-races recently.)

I'm not disputing that speeds have gone up .. just that Alsastiar McKellar is no Peter Sagan; it MAY be that on a 2026 bike he IS as fast as 2018 Sagan - but I don't think average speed stats prove it.

 

[Dogtrousers]

I hope you know I have the utmost respect for your pointless stats!

But I do think these "average speed" figures being bandied around are missing a key aspect: until recently the first 120km would be raced a t a relative snails-pace. How else would breakaways get 3-4 minutes ahead? (This isn't Roubaix-specific of course - you can see the same thing in all pro-races recently.)

I'm not disputing that speeds have gone up .. just that Alsastiar McKellar is no Peter Sagan; it MAY be that on a 2026 bike he IS as fast as 2018 Sagan - but I don't think average speed stats prove it.

Straw man. You're the one drawing, and then disputing, the conclusion that puts Alastair Mackellar on a par with Sagan.

I'm just giving you the numbers.

 

[matticus]

...
I'm just giving you the numbers.

And I'm just making a comment about them!!!

 

[ColinJ]

Been catching up with the full race this week. The number of punctures for the favorites seems unprecedented - so what gives? The only explanation I've heard is that the increase in speed increases the impact against the cobbles so more impact flats. But in theory running tubeless should reduce the number of impact/pinch flats. Something doesn't add up 🤔

My guess is that they were running their big tubeless tyres at very low pressures for improved comfort. That would work up to a point, but hitting the exposed edge of a big displaced cobblestone could cause air to burp out of a tyre much quicker than sealant could prevent?

 

[Gweeds]

Peter Sagan's finishing time in his 2018 Paris-Roubaix win would have been 12 minutes outside the time limit of this year's race.

Nicked from Escape Collective.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Also, it was the 50th anniversary of the film "A Sunday in Hell"

 

[mididoctors]

Got a bit of time on my hands so here are some pointless stats.

The cut off was +8% of the winner's time (+ 25 min 21 sec). There was one OTL rider, Alastair Mackellar who was nearly 4 mins outside that at 29:19.

Mackellar's overall speed was amost exactly the same (fractionally slower) than Greg van Avermaert's winning 2017 speed and was faster than Sagan, Gilbert or Colbrelli (2018,19,21)

I suppose I should factor in the weather somehow.

View attachment 805358

Great post

 

[matticus]

Great post

It was just numbers, man.

 

[wakemalcolm]

Don't want to pi$$ on anyone's chips (or put mayonnaise on them, heaven forbid) but wasn't there an absolute stonking tailwind on Sunday?