tigger
Über Member
So you do accept that it doesn't really tell us anything about helmets relationship with death rates in pro cycling?
Thank god I can stop doing that list!
Thank god I can stop doing that list!
![Big grin :biggrin: :biggrin:](/styles/default/xenforo/smls/biggrin.gif)
When I originally posted it was triggered by the comment about pro-cyclists and safety and my wondering what evidence there was. What came out completely surprised me both as to the size and suddenness of the change and despite the low numbers the very significant statistical difference.
I posted it originally as an interesting observation in response to the comment because it is. There are lots of caveats such as we don't (or I don't) know the actual helmet wearing rates by year other than there was a riders strike over being made to wear them in 1991 and pivotal changes from the high profile Kivilev and Casartelli deaths in 2003 and 1995 that kind of lined up with the change in slope.
We also don't know the total race miles ridden, the numbers of riders, the numbers of races etc over that period but one would expect them to grow slowly rather than a sudden change. Regardless I think it is an interesting enough observation to trigger questions about what has caused the big rise in the competition death rate over the past decade and is there any association with helmets.
The data itself was collated from a number of sources, not just Wikipedia which for example has missed two deaths in 2004 from heart attacks in competition (interestingly more riders died from heart attacks in and out of competition in 2003/4 than from head injuries in the decade). Only those directly related to racing incidents were retained so e.g. heart attacks were removed. Crash deaths not involving head injuries were not removed on the basis that it was racing safety that was in question. That could be affected by exacerbated injuries or riding behavioural changes (rider faster, taking more risks etc). Restricting it to just head injuries drops the rates but still retains a significant difference between the two periods.
As is often the case in science, it starts with an interesting observation which people then work to explain. I know it has already triggered others with better access to other data sets, to start investigating in more detail both to confirm whether these preliminary indications are right, and if so what it the cause. It may all peter out or it may lead ultimately to changes that could save riders lives.
HTH