# Rate of improvement

#### Matthames

##### Über Member
I have been currently recording my average speed since the beginning of this year to see how much I have improved.

I have made a mathematical model to predict my rate of improvement.

I have currently worked out that I am improving on this curve:

Vavg=0.8ln(t)+10

Using this curve I have worked out I need 29 more training sessions before I can hit an average of 15mph on my way back from where I volunteer. To hit 20mph average I need another 120 more sessions.

Of course this is just a mathematical model that I have come up with based on the trend that the data has taken and is subject to a lot of other variables.

##### Guest
Well you ve lost me but Im sure Jimbo will know what your on about

#### jimboalee

##### New Member
Nah.

"Man makes plans, and God laughs".

Record your average speed over a few days.

Date in Column A, avg speed in Column B.

Plot a MS Excel chart.
Add a trendline that is a 3rd order polynomial.

(Display the equation with coefficients for interest only.)

Make the x axis ( days ) long enough to see where the trendline extrapolates.

#### amaferanga

##### Veteran
So as long as you keep riding your bike you're just going to get faster and faster?

Sounds easy....

#### jimboalee

##### New Member
amaferanga said:
So as long as you keep riding your bike you're just going to get faster and faster?

Sounds easy....
No.

"As long as you keep riding your bike HARDER, you're just going to get faster and faster?"

The first few days averages might increase quite rapidly. The extrapolated line from these is what you can aim for.

Something else to add. Don't get too hung up in breaking your PB on the public roads. There are dangerous big vehicles out there with you.
One day, you will be tempted to take a risk too far, and then you will be 'hung up' on the front of a 40 tonner.

#### Rob3rt

##### Man or Moose!
jimboalee said:
No.

"As long as you keep riding your bike HARDER, you're just going to get faster and faster?"

The first few days averages might increase quite rapidly. The extrapolated line from these is what you can aim for.

Something else to add. Don't get too hung up in breaking your PB on the public roads. There are dangerous big vehicles out there with you.
One day, you will be tempted to take a risk too far, and then you will be 'hung up' on the front of a 40 tonner.
110% agree with this, chasing PB's on your commute (or other rides on the normal roads) is just asking for trouble and inviting you to take innapropriate risks. Didnt take me long to figure this one out.

#### montage

##### God Almighty
Interested to see if this graph actually bares any accuracy.
So many variables though.
Keep us updated!