Seeing into the future

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NickM

Veteran
"In time, I too would learn that an experienced messenger can see anywhere from five to thirty seconds into the future. The traffic can be read so closely that he is rarely caught off guard. Most people think that this comes with having good reflexes, but who needs reflexes when you can actually see the future? The truth is that reflexes are put to the test when knowledge is inadequate ."

from The Immortal Class: Bike Messengers and the Cult of Human Power
by Travis Hugh Culley - ISBN 0375504281


I'm not a bike messenger (thank heavens), but have been commuting in London for 25 years - and it's true!
 
Agree.
 

thomas

the tank engine
Location
Woking/Norwich
I find I can just get a feeling about something, either with good reason or just a gut thing. Not all the time, but a few times I've not been surprised when something has happened which is nice.
 
There certainly is some truth to it. It's looking ahead and planning. I had an incident (nothing too major but I might put the video up later to mark the end of a quiet period on the roads), where I saw a car thinking about pulling out in front of me. So I kept a close eye on it, whilst maintaining my speed (about 20mph), knowing that if it did pull out I could stop in time - I had a good enough view of it.

Surprise, surprise, the driver looked at me, thought, oh it's just a bike and pulled out. I had to grab some brake, but I was ready and in no danger.

I think good cyclists (yes Lee I know you think I'm crap) are constantly anticipating and it only becomes a conscious thought when you have to react to something you've predicted.
 

garrilla

Senior Member
Location
Liverpool
I'm already planing my escape path from that near collision with a red Datsun Cherry that'll I'll have on the way home at the junction of Clairevoyant St and Psychic Road
 

arallsopp

Post of The Year 2009 winner
Location
Bromley, Kent
Definitely agree with this. I ride across London twice a day, and have got to the point where it actually scares my other half. I'm not just talking standard fare, VW Golf drivers sitting 3ft further out than any others, BMWs substituting revs for indicators, wing mirror donation, etc...

We drove over to a friends house yesterday. I'd been tailing a Honda saloon for the previous mile, but as we approached a corner I dropped back leaving a conspicuous amount of space.

"What you doing?" says she.
"Leaving space for him to realise he's about to miss his turning"

It was kind of subconscious until she'd queried me, but looking back at it, the
Honda had been doing micro swerves to the right, then resuming course for the previous mile. I figured he was looking for a residence rather than a turning, and looking ahead I could see a white gate approaching on the right, held open with a bucket. Expecting visitors, I guessed.

Sure enough, just as he levelled with the gate, Honda brakes heavy, cuts across the oncoming traffic lane, 90 degrees into the driveway at about 20 mph, just about getting it straight before he spots gravel and throws out the anchor.

The cars coming the other way suddenly found themselves presented with his passenger side door and rear end. With little chance to shed speed, the first car down swerved around the back (found time to hit his horn though) and arrived on the wrong side of the road pretty much exactly where I would have been.

Wife just looks at me. Amazing how often this kind of thing happens. Makes it very scary when the fair weather fairies join the commute, as your back brain is going "No! No! No!" at pretty much every decision they make.
 

joolsybools

Well-Known Member
Location
Scotland
+1
 

Keith Oates

Janner
Location
Penarth, Wales
I think that if you really concentrate on the riding some of these anticipation things happen, that is one of the reasons why I don't agree with listening to music etc. when riding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

garrilla

Senior Member
Location
Liverpool
Are we not simply talking about 'Hazard Perception'? Given that everyone who has taken a driving test in the last 5 years has to take a and pass HP this is hardly an exclusive skill?
 

thomas

the tank engine
Location
Woking/Norwich
garrilla said:
Are we not simply talking about 'Hazard Perception'? Given that everyone who has taken a driving test in the last 5 years has to take a and pass HP this is hardly an exclusive skill?

Kind of...but I prefer the 'seeing into the future' idea :thumbsup:...I think hazard perception is realising where hazards could be, 'seeing into the future' is thinking " that person is definitely going to pull out" and then they do, not just, they could pull out (because that could happen at every junction).
 

garrilla

Senior Member
Location
Liverpool
thomas said:
Kind of...but I prefer the 'seeing into the future' idea :shy:...I think hazard perception is realising where hazards could be, 'seeing into the future' is thinking " that person is definitely going to pull out" and then they do, not just, they could pull out (because that could happen at every junction).


http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Motoring/LearnerAndNewDrivers/TheoryTest/DG_4022535
Why the hazard perception element was introduced

The government is committed to reducing the numbers killed and seriously injured on Britain's roads by 40 per cent by 2010. The hazard perception element was introduced into the driving test in November 2002 as one of the measures that should help achieve this target by encouraging appropriate training in scanning the road, recognising at the first opportunity from the clues that a potentially dangerous situation might arise and adopting a driving plan to reduce the risk.
During the development of this test, the Driving Standards Agency (DSA) worked closely with colleagues from the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) and the road safety division of the Department for Transport, both of whom thought this test suitable for testing the hazard awareness skills of all drivers.

How the test works

The hazard perception part is delivered on a computer and you respond by clicking a button on the mouse. You will be presented with a series of video clips which feature every day road scenes. In each clip there will be at least one developing hazard, but one of the clips will feature two developing hazards.
To achieve a high score you will need to respond to the developing hazard during the early part of its development. The maximum you can score on each hazard is five.
Recognition of available clues and perception of danger are skills that are necessary in all drivers and riders, irrespective of the vehicle used. For this reason, the same version of the hazard perception test is used for all categories of test.

An example of when to respond

As an example, of how to identify and respond to a developing hazard, consider a parked vehicle on the side of the road. When you first see it, it is not doing anything; it is just a parked vehicle. If you were to respond to the vehicle at this point, you would not score any marks, but you would not lose any marks.
However, when you get closer to the vehicle, you notice that the car's right hand indicator starts to flash. The indicator would lead you to believe that the driver of the vehicle has an intention of moving away, therefore the hazard is now developing and a response at this point would score marks. The indicator coming on is a sign that the parked vehicle has changed its status from a potential hazard into a developing hazard.
When you get closer to the vehicle, you will probably see the vehicle start to move away from the side of the road; another response should be made at this point. Different clips in the test will have various signs to indicate that the hazard is changing its status and is now starting to develop.

How the test is scored

The maximum you can score for each developing hazard is five points. You should respond by pressing the mouse button as soon as you see a hazard developing that may result in you, the driver, having to take some action, such as changing speed or direction. The earlier you notice a developing hazard and make a response, the higer your score.
You will not be able to review your answers to the hazard perception test; as on the road, you will only have one chance to respond to the developing hazard, so you will need to concentrate throughout each clip.
If you react inappropriately during the video clip by clicking continuously or in a pattern of responses you will score zero for that clip. At the end of the clip a pop-up box will appear informing you that you have scored zero for that particular clip.
 

joolsybools

Well-Known Member
Location
Scotland
Shame they can't retrospecively test the vast majority of road users! I'm an advocate of retaking driving tests every 10 years but I know its contoversial so expect to be shot down :shy:
 
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