Shimano sales drop by 18%

[TheDoctor]

Drago speaketh the sense.
Most of my bikes are still on 7 speed rear ends.
Cassettes and chains are cheap, and they last forever. It just works.

 

[DogmaStu]

Making 105 electric only will have dented their turnover hugely.

I disagree - it would be interesting to see if that was actually true on a global scale with properly comparable stats.

Everyone I know actively wants electronic once they have lived with it for a while. Indeed, my LBS tells me that bikes with no discs and no electronic gearing now are hard sells - more want them and making 105 electronic has opened up the advantages of electronic - and yes, it IS better - has only improved sales.

Two of my bikes are mech only, one without discs too and while I enjoy them, I cannot deny I prefer electronic and discs. Progress has been made, it is preferable. I can't see 105 Di2 hurting sales at all - just wishful thinking from anti-change brigade.

Edit to add: I do all my own servicing and repairs. The current Shimano groups are easy to work with, faster to adjust and I've yet to have a single issue in 4 years of using electronic.

 

[wafter]

I disagree - it would be interesting to see if that was actually true on a global scale with properly comparable stats.

Everyone I know actively wants electronic once they have lived with it for a while. Indeed, my LBS tells me that bikes with no discs and no electronic gearing now are hard sells - more want them and making 105 electronic has opened up the advantages of electronic - and yes, it IS better - has only improved sales.

Two of my bikes are mech only, one without discs too and while I enjoy them, I cannot deny I prefer electronic and discs. Progress has been made, it is preferable. I can't see 105 Di2 hurting sales at all - just wishful thinking from anti-change brigade.

Edit to add: I do all my own servicing and repairs. The current Shimano groups are easy to work with, faster to adjust and I've yet to have a single issue in 4 years of using electronic.

So everyone shopping for a bike at your LBS turns their noses up at anything that's not electronic / disc equipped? Presumably they get no demand for bikes costing less than what, £2-2.5k?

You think it's better, and that's your choice. I don't, and see no benefit or desirability in grenading an existing, winning, very much loved format with un-necessary tech that's already available elsewhere and highly unlikely to appeal to the core buying demographic of that groupset - especially given the price hike.

It's extremely disingenous to suggest that those who don't appreciate 105 going electronic occupy this position simply because of some irrational fear of change. Conversely I could suggest that those rushing to adopt electronic shifting are only doing so out of some shallow desire for conspicuous consumption - but that of course would be equally unfair.

 

[DogmaStu]

So everyone shopping for a bike at your LBS turns their noses up at anything that's not electronic / disc equipped? Presumably they get no demand for bikes costing less than what, £2-2.5k?

You think it's better, and that's your choice. I don't, and see no benefit or desirability in grenading an existing, winning, very much loved format with un-necessary tech that's already available elsewhere and highly unlikely to appeal to the core buying demographic of that groupset - especially given the price hike.

It's extremely disingenous to suggest that those who don't appreciate 105 going electronic occupy this position simply because of some irrational fear of change. Conversely I could suggest that those rushing to adopt electronic shifting are only doing so out of some shallow desire for conspicuous consumption - but that of course would be equally unfair.

No need to be silly. Obviously there are still options for those who want mechanical and who don't want to spend much.

Shimano 105 in 11spd mechanical is still very much available and it might get a 12spd version update given it has been spotted in testing.

My comment was merely my personal view that I do not see how introducing the electronic version hurt sales. Indeed, I believe it is a positive move, giving greater options for those of us who have owned / still own both / have tried it and prefer it.

 

[Drago]

Drago speaketh the sense.

Doesn't happen often!

 

[wafter]

That's a bit of a sweeping statement.

I have a 2015 bike with a Tiagra drivetrain (not the full gruppo of wheels, seat post, bars, stem, just the drive trains) and it is virtually identical in appearance to the 2012 105 on another of my bikes in appearance.

Other than the longer lever throw of the Tiagra, which I prefer with my big hands, they also perform identically. With a blindfold (not recommended as you woukd likely fall off) you would never know the difference bar the feel at the levers.

But here's the 'but'...

These different levels are but 3 years apart before becoming essentially identical. How will Tiagra ever benefit from the same technical trickle-down over the model years if there is no mechanical system above it with which to bequeath its tech?

I've nothing against e systems, but it's not for me. I'm not one into technology for the sake of it, having only got my first smart phone in May as I was struggling to get a decent dumbphone any more. The e gears were nice, but didn't knock a single second off of any of my rides so with no practical benefit I can't be arrissed, what is the point? I'm too old for willy wagging or pub boasting about kit, so how does it benefit me? It simply doesn't.

I'm far, far from being alone in wanting quality but with simplicity of design, function, maintenance and repair, and Shimano have taken the decision not to service this sizeable sector any longer, and now profits are markedly down.

Only if you consider it outside the context of the two most current offerings of each (4700 and R7000) - sounds like your example is comparing an outgoing iteration of 105 (5700) to a the very recently introduce Tiagra (4700).

By the time the 4700 was out in 2015, 105 had already been upgraded to 5800; which I suspect might feel a bit nicer.. while the difference between R7000 and 4700 is fairly significant.. although I've never had a problem with the Tiagra.

All that aside I agree with the rest of your post

 

[Jameshow]

Wrong thread !

 

[Drago]

Only if you consider it outside the context of the two most current offerings of each (4700 and R7000) - sounds like your example is comparing an outgoing iteration of 105 (5700) to a the very recently introduce Tiagra (4700).

By the time the 4700 was out in 2015, 105 had already been upgraded to 5800; which I suspect might feel a bit nicer.. while the difference between R7000 and 4700 is fairly significant.. although I've never had a problem with the Tiagra.

All that aside I agree with the rest of your post

That's exactly my point. Yes, by 2015 105 had moved on well, and truly, but that is missing the issue at hand.

Comparing 4700 (good guess!) With 5600 (another good guess my friend!!!) shows the trickle down effect which Shimano trumpet so much, how a more humble geartrain today shares many tech features with the higher one from few years back.

With no mechanical 105 geartrain, where will that technology now come from? In the past Shimano would invest in R&D on the Dura-Ace and Ultegra and over the years that would trickle down to the more humble offerings.

Will Shimano continue to invest at such levels in R&D for Tiagra, which they, the media and the market (us wise people know better ) regard as a fairly low rent system for dressing lower rent bikes? I betcha they don't.

I do feel aggrieved that as someone uninterested in electronic shifting In been abandoned by Shimano. I'm not alone, and they've essentially walked away from a fair chunk of their market. They were doubtless hoping wealthy middle aged gits like me would spend out lolly on e shifting, but I and many like me won't spend money on something that personally brings me (us) no benefit beyond the bragging rights that don't interest us anyway.

 

[wafter]

That's exactly my point. Yes, by 2015 105 had moved on well, and truly, but that is missing the issue at hand.

Comparing 4700 (good guess!) With 5600 (another good guess my friend!!!) shows the trickle down effect which Shimano trumpet so much, how a more humble geartrain today shares many tech features with the higher one from few years back.

With no mechanical 105 geartrain, where will that technology now come from? In the past Shimano would invest in R&D on the Dura-Ace and Ultegra and over the years that would trickle down to the more humble offerings.

Will Shimano continue to invest at such levels in R&D for Tiagra, which they, the media and the market (us wise people know better ) regard as a fairly low rent system for dressing lower rent bikes? I betcha they don't.

I do feel aggrieved that as someone uninterested in electronic shifting In been abandoned by Shimano. I'm not alone, and they've essentially walked away from a fair chunk of their market. They were doubtless hoping wealthy middle aged gits like me would spend out lolly on e shifting, but I and many like me won't spend money on something that personally brings me (us) no benefit beyond the bragging rights that don't interest us anyway.

Indeed (wikipedia helped with the groupshift ID ).

With the introduction of CUES the natural assumption is that this will replace all the low-to-mid-range groupsets across the board, leaving only the application-specific, possibly electronic-only stuff at the top end (so for road possibly 105, Ultregra and Dura-Ace)..

As you say this would destroy the trickle-down mantra that's served them so well so far, and potentially present a yawing chasm of cost and compatability between the universal low-mid range stuff and that at the top. This would be a real shame IMO, and while I've always liked Shimano and considered their components by default; if it goes this way I think it'll be time to start looking at alternatives.

 

[Jameshow]

That's exactly my point. Yes, by 2015 105 had moved on well, and truly, but that is missing the issue at hand.

Comparing 4700 (good guess!) With 5600 (another good guess my friend!!!) shows the trickle down effect which Shimano trumpet so much, how a more humble geartrain today shares many tech features with the higher one from few years back.

With no mechanical 105 geartrain, where will that technology now come from? In the past Shimano would invest in R&D on the Dura-Ace and Ultegra and over the years that would trickle down to the more humble offerings.

Will Shimano continue to invest at such levels in R&D for Tiagra, which they, the media and the market (us wise people know better ) regard as a fairly low rent system for dressing lower rent bikes? I betcha they don't.

I do feel aggrieved that as someone uninterested in electronic shifting In been abandoned by Shimano. I'm not alone, and they've essentially walked away from a fair chunk of their market. They were doubtless hoping wealthy middle aged gits like me would spend out lolly on e shifting, but I and many like me won't spend money on something that personally brings me (us) no benefit beyond the bragging rights that don't interest us anyway.

I think we have reached peak cable groupsets!
Better start stock piling....!

 

[silva]

The problem being they have geared up production to that level. Now demand has slowed. It's a bit like trying to stop an oil tanker, it takes a while. Now that a recession is on the horizon the stocks have built up and sales have dropped. Stocks are money and if it's not shifting the problems begin so if you're not adequately financed you're in trouble, which is why some of the distributors have been going bust.

It's easy to decrease downto stop production but hard to increase.
If I assume that they didn't disassemble/scrap/sell production gear during the lockdown-forced stops, restarting it is just a matter of checking state of things then pressing buttons, no?
We need a pre-lockdown reference to judge.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/shmdf/financials
Sales growth
2019 +4,37%
2020 +4,08%
2021 +44,57%
2022 +15.08%
I would say, it's a lilliput version of the gulliver mouth masks and vaccines story.
From normal to wooha elevated to normal again, here still far away from though.

Would an 18% drop still be an increase over pre-plague sales figures ? I'm thinking it might.

Those figures confirm, if I interprete them like they should be interpreted.
Maybe an idea for another lockdown to prop things and prices back and further up? :P

In that trend to normal case, and in the case bike component prices were revised downwards again, it would be an idea to stockpile now. But I don't think that condition is true since bike components are still priced alot higher. A month ago I bought a spare front wheel and its price was over 500 euro, compared to 335 euro in 2019.
I would then conclude that this sales drop > overstock is just some advertisement that is ment to get stocks sold at current evelated prices, that then drop further (1 year +44% versus + 1 year +15% where normal is +4%, is still alot way back to +4%.
Governments forced wages / fees / tax increases, which puts a floor under the higher prices as to make these permanent.but a that doesn't affect a percentual change.
So that those big boys would struggle, not really, rather the contrary, they were granted a boom and the bust is back to a normal struggling.
I had the luck of having stockpiled (12 years ago I became a hoarder) ahead of 2020, except for chainrings, and I got there my punishment for waiting, price about 50% higher, also due to taxes on import they started to lift here as a revenge for UK exit.