booze and cake
probably out cycling
OK some of us are in a FPL mini league, and following on from this post:
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-football.94553/post-4678660
..and @Roadhump 's reply: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-football.94553/post-4678754
...I thought I'd start a dedicated FPL thread so as not to clutter up the football thread with talk of fantasy footy. Here can discuss and all our FPL plans, glories and disasters, and maybe see if we can learn something to improve our game. OK so we've missed the start of the season, but we're all set for the run in, and big jumps up the table can still be achieved.
The game is getting bigger every year and now with 4 million players its more competitive than ever. There are more stats, blogs and forums providing more info than ever before, most of which I confess I don't follow. Personally I make my decisions based on look at upcoming fixtures and watching Match of the Day to see who is playing well, and some discussions on the FISO forum. But I'm still convinced I can do decent at the game without trawling through stats, it is a game after all and I'm in it for the fun, not the spreadsheets.
I'd still like to be better at it though. I'm currently about the 50,000 overall, my last 2 seasons I've finished about 90,000 overall, so I'm doing better, but not great. However I finally feel this year I've a much better idea of what I'm doing. I've played in a mini league in the Telegraph Fantasy Football game for about 10 years and the games are played very differently.
What strikes me most about FPL, and why I find it so fascinating, is to me there is no apparent 'right' way to do it, there's are plenty of ways to skin a cat. Very different teams can achieve the same points from very different approaches. Compared to the Telegraph game you can also check on any other players teams to see how they are doing. I'm not professing to be an expert in any way and am still learning, but I'd just like to share some things I've learnt that have helped me improve, that don't require a degree in statistics or take up hours of your time.
First up, total budget, (your total squad value plus the money you have in the bank). This stands out in our mini league. I paid no attention to this in my first season. Debate rages about how vital this is, but I think to ignore it completely is a big mistake. We start off with a budget of £100m to buy our squad. A players buying and selling prices in FPL go up and down, so depending on the timing of your buying and selling, over the course of the season you can make significant increases to the value of your squad. Release your inner Barry Fry and wheel and deal a bit. I currently have a total budget of £104.1m (it is the column marked 'TB' on our league summary page), @mark st1 is the only other player in our league with a TB over £100m. Why does this matter? Well simply it gives me more buying power, it means I can afford Gabriel Jesus from Man City instead of Boro's Rudy Gestede, Hazard instead of Miralles for example. £0.2m difference is not much, but £4m is a big difference,having an extra £4m to help beef up your defence is not to be sniffed at. Now of course on a week by week basis the most expensive players don't always score the most points, but I cannot see how having extra buying power is a bad thing, its giving me more options and an advantage over others, not all teams are equal!
So how the hell do you know when a players price is about to go up or down? Strangely FPL don't mark this out obviously anywhere and the algorithm for calculating price changes is secret. I expect its something that may eventually be provided by the website, but for now there are a number of external websites that try and give projections based on transfers in and out. The one I've used for the past 2 seasons is http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/
This is my top tip number 1. It lists all players, when a player has a number in the target column with +100 it means they are due a rise tonight (all price changes seem to happen at 1-2am daily) and those on the last pages with -100 are due to drop in price. Bear in mind this is not 100% accurate but it is at least a guide. I can buy a player just before he rises or sell before he falls, and maybe delay a transfer for a week if it looks like I can sell for a higher price next week. This is how I've gained team value. This does'nt need checking every day and does'nt take much time, some price changes I'll act on, others I won't, but its definitely helped.
Money can also be raised during wildcard weeks, more so in the early season when people are transferring in and out like crazy finding the form players. Did you know during the week of a wild card you can do unlimited transfers? These can be used to generate money, even if you sell the player again before the start of the next week. By activating the wildcard immediately after the last games of a Sunday, you have a nearly a week of wheeler dealing. Prices tend to largely reflect last week performances, so for example Mane's 2 goals yesterday means that according to the website link provided above, he is already over 100 and due for a rise tonight. So if I bring him in today, he will likely rise tonight, and as Mane plays against Leicester next week, who have been rubbish this year, there's a good chance he'll go up again this week. If I was on a wildcard I could sell him after he'd risen twice to bank the profit, before the next game has even happened! I made £0.5m profit in a week on my first wildcard doing this, but have seen others make over £1m in a week easily.
My team value is not even that good. I have seen other teams with a team value over £108m, but these teams have mostly made lots of extra transfers. In fact it has become clear to me this year that some teams play entirely to gain team value early in the season, with the aim of using the extra financial muscle to outgun everyone by buying the big guns for the run in. It is obviously a balancing act, the trick is not to take so many hits you are too far behind to catch up, but its another way of playing the game I'd not considered until this year, and is a viable option next time for me. I think this is key early on, late in the season I'm not bothered about gaining value as much, its more about more points in the latter stages.
The other key element to the game is the use of the chips. Last year I had a good finish to the season as a result of my use of chips for the finale. Due to the FA Cup, Milk Cup or whatever its called these days, and for occasional cancelled games due to very bad weather, games are re-arranged every year and we get weeks where some teams don't play at all, and others when teams play 2 games in a week. Planning for these can see some big leaps up the table.
So we're now in game week 25, and this is where the real fun starts in my view. We have our first blanks this coming week gw26, the scheduled league games between Man City V Man Utd and Southampton v Arsenal are off due to the milk Cup final on the 26th Feb. So I hope you are aware of this and can all field an 11 this week.
The next spanner in our managers ointment is going to be gw28. Due to the fact the FA Cup has managed to keep all the big teams apart in the next round next weekend, if all the favourites go through to the next round there is going to be lots of league games called off for gw28. In fact if all the favourites go through the only teams that will play in gw28 are Bouremouth, Everton, Hull, Swansea, WBA, West Ham. That will cause carnage. That's only 3 weeks and 3 free transfers away, so can you get 11 players out that week? How many are you happy to play with that week, 5, 8,10? If you manage 11, do you want 11 from those teams for the following weeks? Not likely. Now you can see the value of having a wildcard at this stage of the season to totally re-do your team. If all those games are re-scheduled we're going to have some bumper double game weeks later on.
The FA have not said when these games will take place yet, so we don't know exactly, but with all the European and Cup games ahead, there's only so many slots they can fit into. Last years extra games were squeezed in to make double game weeks of gw34 and gw37.
It is these double game weeks when I can see the best chance to use the chips with the most points potential, which to me are the triple captain and bench boost chip. To me the all out attack chip is the least valuable as its basically the points difference between playing an extra attacker instead of a defender, so marginal gains at best. The other two though, can be points bonanzas if you can pick a good player who is likely to plays 2 games in a week. So for example if Sanchez gets a double game week and gets 2 goals in one game and a goal and assist in his 2nd game, if played with a triple captain those combined points are tripled, and your laughing all the way up the table, and being praised as a football genius.
So I'm pretty sure I'll triple captain and bench boost in the double game weeks, which on which week depends on the fixtures and players available at the time. If I can I'll save my wildcard and play it a week before the bench boost, I can then fill my squad with up to 15 players who have 2 games in a week, so basically 30 players points instead of a standard 11, and if that happens in gw37, I hope this will be a final big push up the league.
OMG sorry that turned into an epic, if anyone actually gets to the end of that, fair play
. I hope that makes some sense and maybe be useful for others. As I said I'm no expert so all welcome here, novices to pros, feel free to chip in or fire away with any questions.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-football.94553/post-4678660
..and @Roadhump 's reply: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-football.94553/post-4678754
...I thought I'd start a dedicated FPL thread so as not to clutter up the football thread with talk of fantasy footy. Here can discuss and all our FPL plans, glories and disasters, and maybe see if we can learn something to improve our game. OK so we've missed the start of the season, but we're all set for the run in, and big jumps up the table can still be achieved.
The game is getting bigger every year and now with 4 million players its more competitive than ever. There are more stats, blogs and forums providing more info than ever before, most of which I confess I don't follow. Personally I make my decisions based on look at upcoming fixtures and watching Match of the Day to see who is playing well, and some discussions on the FISO forum. But I'm still convinced I can do decent at the game without trawling through stats, it is a game after all and I'm in it for the fun, not the spreadsheets.
I'd still like to be better at it though. I'm currently about the 50,000 overall, my last 2 seasons I've finished about 90,000 overall, so I'm doing better, but not great. However I finally feel this year I've a much better idea of what I'm doing. I've played in a mini league in the Telegraph Fantasy Football game for about 10 years and the games are played very differently.
What strikes me most about FPL, and why I find it so fascinating, is to me there is no apparent 'right' way to do it, there's are plenty of ways to skin a cat. Very different teams can achieve the same points from very different approaches. Compared to the Telegraph game you can also check on any other players teams to see how they are doing. I'm not professing to be an expert in any way and am still learning, but I'd just like to share some things I've learnt that have helped me improve, that don't require a degree in statistics or take up hours of your time.
First up, total budget, (your total squad value plus the money you have in the bank). This stands out in our mini league. I paid no attention to this in my first season. Debate rages about how vital this is, but I think to ignore it completely is a big mistake. We start off with a budget of £100m to buy our squad. A players buying and selling prices in FPL go up and down, so depending on the timing of your buying and selling, over the course of the season you can make significant increases to the value of your squad. Release your inner Barry Fry and wheel and deal a bit. I currently have a total budget of £104.1m (it is the column marked 'TB' on our league summary page), @mark st1 is the only other player in our league with a TB over £100m. Why does this matter? Well simply it gives me more buying power, it means I can afford Gabriel Jesus from Man City instead of Boro's Rudy Gestede, Hazard instead of Miralles for example. £0.2m difference is not much, but £4m is a big difference,having an extra £4m to help beef up your defence is not to be sniffed at. Now of course on a week by week basis the most expensive players don't always score the most points, but I cannot see how having extra buying power is a bad thing, its giving me more options and an advantage over others, not all teams are equal!
So how the hell do you know when a players price is about to go up or down? Strangely FPL don't mark this out obviously anywhere and the algorithm for calculating price changes is secret. I expect its something that may eventually be provided by the website, but for now there are a number of external websites that try and give projections based on transfers in and out. The one I've used for the past 2 seasons is http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/
This is my top tip number 1. It lists all players, when a player has a number in the target column with +100 it means they are due a rise tonight (all price changes seem to happen at 1-2am daily) and those on the last pages with -100 are due to drop in price. Bear in mind this is not 100% accurate but it is at least a guide. I can buy a player just before he rises or sell before he falls, and maybe delay a transfer for a week if it looks like I can sell for a higher price next week. This is how I've gained team value. This does'nt need checking every day and does'nt take much time, some price changes I'll act on, others I won't, but its definitely helped.
Money can also be raised during wildcard weeks, more so in the early season when people are transferring in and out like crazy finding the form players. Did you know during the week of a wild card you can do unlimited transfers? These can be used to generate money, even if you sell the player again before the start of the next week. By activating the wildcard immediately after the last games of a Sunday, you have a nearly a week of wheeler dealing. Prices tend to largely reflect last week performances, so for example Mane's 2 goals yesterday means that according to the website link provided above, he is already over 100 and due for a rise tonight. So if I bring him in today, he will likely rise tonight, and as Mane plays against Leicester next week, who have been rubbish this year, there's a good chance he'll go up again this week. If I was on a wildcard I could sell him after he'd risen twice to bank the profit, before the next game has even happened! I made £0.5m profit in a week on my first wildcard doing this, but have seen others make over £1m in a week easily.
My team value is not even that good. I have seen other teams with a team value over £108m, but these teams have mostly made lots of extra transfers. In fact it has become clear to me this year that some teams play entirely to gain team value early in the season, with the aim of using the extra financial muscle to outgun everyone by buying the big guns for the run in. It is obviously a balancing act, the trick is not to take so many hits you are too far behind to catch up, but its another way of playing the game I'd not considered until this year, and is a viable option next time for me. I think this is key early on, late in the season I'm not bothered about gaining value as much, its more about more points in the latter stages.
The other key element to the game is the use of the chips. Last year I had a good finish to the season as a result of my use of chips for the finale. Due to the FA Cup, Milk Cup or whatever its called these days, and for occasional cancelled games due to very bad weather, games are re-arranged every year and we get weeks where some teams don't play at all, and others when teams play 2 games in a week. Planning for these can see some big leaps up the table.
So we're now in game week 25, and this is where the real fun starts in my view. We have our first blanks this coming week gw26, the scheduled league games between Man City V Man Utd and Southampton v Arsenal are off due to the milk Cup final on the 26th Feb. So I hope you are aware of this and can all field an 11 this week.
The next spanner in our managers ointment is going to be gw28. Due to the fact the FA Cup has managed to keep all the big teams apart in the next round next weekend, if all the favourites go through to the next round there is going to be lots of league games called off for gw28. In fact if all the favourites go through the only teams that will play in gw28 are Bouremouth, Everton, Hull, Swansea, WBA, West Ham. That will cause carnage. That's only 3 weeks and 3 free transfers away, so can you get 11 players out that week? How many are you happy to play with that week, 5, 8,10? If you manage 11, do you want 11 from those teams for the following weeks? Not likely. Now you can see the value of having a wildcard at this stage of the season to totally re-do your team. If all those games are re-scheduled we're going to have some bumper double game weeks later on.
The FA have not said when these games will take place yet, so we don't know exactly, but with all the European and Cup games ahead, there's only so many slots they can fit into. Last years extra games were squeezed in to make double game weeks of gw34 and gw37.
It is these double game weeks when I can see the best chance to use the chips with the most points potential, which to me are the triple captain and bench boost chip. To me the all out attack chip is the least valuable as its basically the points difference between playing an extra attacker instead of a defender, so marginal gains at best. The other two though, can be points bonanzas if you can pick a good player who is likely to plays 2 games in a week. So for example if Sanchez gets a double game week and gets 2 goals in one game and a goal and assist in his 2nd game, if played with a triple captain those combined points are tripled, and your laughing all the way up the table, and being praised as a football genius.
So I'm pretty sure I'll triple captain and bench boost in the double game weeks, which on which week depends on the fixtures and players available at the time. If I can I'll save my wildcard and play it a week before the bench boost, I can then fill my squad with up to 15 players who have 2 games in a week, so basically 30 players points instead of a standard 11, and if that happens in gw37, I hope this will be a final big push up the league.
OMG sorry that turned into an epic, if anyone actually gets to the end of that, fair play
. I hope that makes some sense and maybe be useful for others. As I said I'm no expert so all welcome here, novices to pros, feel free to chip in or fire away with any questions.
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