What are the odd's?

[jonny jeez]

I was just reading a reply to a thread that RH100 made and this comment got me thinking.

" I have to say though that the vast majority of drivers have been more than polite and helpful, even if I've done wrong (WVM's included)."

I started considering the odd's.

Each day that I cycle, I interact with what must be a thousand or so motorised vehicles (coming and going, crossing and queuing).

So, in my (limited) experience of 12 weeks, I have probably interacted with 36,000 vehicles. In the same time I have had about 3 run in's with drivers, none of which were really serious and probably had a hundred or so really good experiences of polite and helpful drivers (I thank at least one person every time I ride…sometimes 3 or 4).

So if 1000 x 12 weeks (3 times a week) is 36,000 cars/bikes etc, With 3 bad Driver's and 100 good drivers over the same period


This translates to:

0.0083% (ish) of drivers that are really crap,- 3 in 36,000
0.27% (ish) are really good - 100 in 36,000

and the rest…… are fair (99.72%)

Those are pretty favourable odds!!


But wait.

I also meet about 100 cyclist each day (3,600 over 12 weeks) and witness about 30 of them performing really stupid antics (jumping lights, pavement surfing, Pedestrian "bothering") and about another 20 or so that are just a bit…er…"wobbly"

So, over the same period I have met:
3,600 cyclists
1,080 of which were a bit "crap"
720 that are a bit on the "wobbly" side

That’s

30% crap cyclists
20% Not great

And only 50% that seem to be on the ball

50% versus 99.72% fair or 30% versus 0.0088% bad

Seems the odds of us improving motor-vehicle drivers attitudes are pretty stacked against us!

I've gone a bit blind on the numbers, feel free to check my maths.

 

[Twenty Inch]

Nothing worse than a self-hating cyclist.

*cycles off and yells* "GET OURRA MY WAY STUPID PED!"

 

[Trevrev]

I was just reading a reply to a thread that RH100 made and this comment got me thinking.

" I have to say though that the vast majority of drivers have been more than polite and helpful, even if I've done wrong (WVM's included)."

I started considering the odd's.

Each day that I cycle, I interact with what must be a thousand or so motorised vehicles (coming and going, crossing and queuing).

So, in my (limited) experience of 12 weeks, I have probably interacted with 36,000 vehicles. In the same time I have had about 3 run in's with drivers, none of which were really serious and probably had a hundred or so really good experiences of polite and helpful drivers (I thank at least one person every time I ride…sometimes 3 or 4).

So if 1000 x 12 weeks (3 times a week) is 36,000 cars/bikes etc, With 3 bad Driver's and 100 good drivers over the same period


This translates to:

0.0083% (ish) of drivers that are really crap,- 3 in 36,000
0.27% (ish) are really good - 100 in 36,000

and the rest…… are fair (99.72%)

Those are pretty favourable odds!!


But wait.

I also meet about 100 cyclist each day (3,600 over 12 weeks) and witness about 30 of them performing really stupid antics (jumping lights, pavement surfing, Pedestrian "bothering") and about another 20 or so that are just a bit…er…"wobbly"

So, over the same period I have met:
3,600 cyclists
1,080 of which were a bit "crap"
720 that are a bit on the "wobbly" side

That’s

30% crap cyclists
20% Not great

And only 50% that seem to be on the ball

50% versus 99.72% fair or 30% versus 0.0088% bad

Seems the odds of us improving motor-vehicle drivers attitudes are pretty stacked against us!

I've gone a bit blind on the numbers, feel free to check my maths.

You must be really really bored !!!
YAWN !!!

 

[rh100]

Stop it with the maths - your making my 'ed 'urt

Don't really see too many other cyclists on my short commute, and they seem more competent than me so couldn't possibly comment

As always though, it's the person - not the mode of transport - but perhaps crap cyclists are attracted to bikes because it's easy and cheap and casual enough for them not to bother learning to do it properly.

 

[jonny jeez]

Nothing worse than a self-hating cyclist.

*cycles off and yells* "GET OURRA MY WAY STUPID PED!"

LOL

Thinking about it. ...it only takes one bad car driver to wreck someones life.

it'd take a ton of bad cyclists to do the same. So perhaps the odds aren't so bad after all....The message is...in summary....there are a lot of really bad cyclists out there and not as many bad drivers as we probably assume


....I should have written that in the first instance, could have saved myself half an hour!!!!

 

[John the Monkey]

I'm not a fan of inconsiderate cyclists, having been nearly T-boned by two jumping red lights. However, inconsiderate motorists are FAR more numerous, and far more dangerous up here in Manchester - I know where I'd sooner the vituperation and any traffic law enforcement (ha!) went.

Incidentally, RLJing motor vehicles outnumbered RLJing cyclists on my morning commute (3 vs 1, but it is early when I'm out).

 

[Dayvo]

You must be really really bored !!!
YAWN !!!

I disagree!

They make interesting reading, although statistics can be used to back-up almost any argument.

The reason (probably) why the cycling stats. are so high compared to the motorists', is that almost anyone can go and out and buy a bike and ride it without not having much more skill other than being able to balance, pedal and brake.

Not everyone who rides a bike is a cyclist, whereas everyone who drives a motorised vehicle is a motorist.

 

[J4CKO]

Not everyone who rides a bike is a cyclist, whereas everyone who drives a motorised vehicle is a motorist.

I see some as "drivers", those who are in command of their vehicle, others are merely car operators, those who hate the whole business and see it as a chore and pay it very little attention.

 

[Dayvo]

I see some as "drivers", those who are in command of their vehicle, others are merely car operators, those who hate the whole business and see it as a chore and pay it very little attention.

I agree, but seeing as a qualified motorist has to pass a written test as well as the driving test (albeit there are far too many poor drivers on the roads), they have a (supposedly) higher competence compared to someone riding a bike with no road knowledge at all.

 

[arallsopp]

Side note, but as we're playing with maths (sad, aren't I) I ended up counting high sided vehicles today on the commute.

I collected a SMIDSY from WVM, and it came with a free shout of "fackingdanjrous". I'm on a recumbent, so this one's tricky for me. I'd normally say "bikes aren't dangerous, they're vulnerable" but was wondering if he had a point. I'm pretty low down, and whilst very visible, its true that I can't see over the roofs of cars.

I kept a count from there to work, and found the number of vans, mpvs, 4x4s, trucks, and buses outnumbered 'normal' height cars by about 4 to 1.

When did that happen? Weren't cars once car shaped?

 

[Lazy-Commuter]

Stop it with the maths - your making my 'ed 'urt

Don't really see too many other cyclists on my short commute, and they seem more competent than me so couldn't possibly comment

As always though, it's the person - not the mode of transport - but perhaps crap cyclists are attracted to bikes because it's easy and cheap and casual enough for them not to bother learning to do it properly.

.. another thought on your last point, rh: perhaps some crap cyclists are the ones who've been banned from driving a car 'cos they were crap at that as well!!

 

[BentMikey]

I'm pretty low down, and whilst very visible, its true that I can't see over the roofs of cars.

You're higher than a caterham, so no, you're plenty visible. Noone would dream of blaming the caterham driver after all.

 

[arallsopp]

I would say I'm higher than the road markings (which are only paint deep), and nobody has an issue seeing them, but they're also completely invisible to the drivers of Streatham.

 

[Origamist]

I would say I'm higher than the road markings (which are only paint deep), and nobody has an issue seeing them, but they're also completely invisible to the drivers of Streatham.

Do you sometimes go along Tooting Bec road on your bent, arallsopp?

 

[thomas]

I see some as "drivers", those who are in command of their vehicle, others are merely car operators, those who hate the whole business and see it as a chore and pay it very little attention.

They spoke about this on the last series of Top Gear...how, if you don't have an interest in something, you won't be any good at it.

Now, I think it is safe to say we all enjoy cycling, which in turn means we want to be good at it.