Peter Sagan and the TdF

[The Couch]

If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan....He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course...

Of course, if someone would convince him today to drastically change, he might just do so, but...

Can't see this happening, he would really need to drastically change his weight/training schedule and would need to forego focusing on the classics
(which, without currently actually having won one of the big ones yet, won't happen at all I believe)
(and let's not forget he does win a lot of minor stages/races with his current build as well)

By the time he would feel satisfied with his victory total using his current build (especially in the classics), it would be too late to make a real contender out of him

 

[Beebo]

Well the guys on the BBC were very angry with Sagan for his display today, they felt he did far too much work at the front, tiring himself out, then when the main attack happened he missed the boat.
The phrase they used about 10 times was "thrown it away, yet again!"

 

[smutchin]

By the time he would feel satisfied with his victory total using his current build (especially in the classics), it would be too late to make a real contender out of him

Do you think so? Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...

 

[themosquitoking]

Do you think so? Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...

Ahem, Chris Horner.

 

[Bollo]

Well the guys on the BBC were very angry with Sagan for his display today, they felt he did far too much work at the front, tiring himself out, then when the main attack happened he missed the boat.
The phrase they used about 10 times was "thrown it away, yet again!"

I bit harsh I thought. He had to go with the break in case it stuck, but it was almost a case of 'anyone but Sagan' once the break had established and he'd dropped his support. Maybe on other stages be could have played it better but I think he was stitched up today, especially as so many teams are after stage wins after losing their team leaders.

 

[tigger]

He's such a marked man now. The way I see it he has two options in those situations. Either stay in the bunch and force their hand and/or not burn his teammates out and have at least one with him to cover the break.

 

[Beebo]

I bit harsh I thought. He had to go with the break in case it stuck, but it was almost a case of 'anyone but Sagan' once the break had established and he'd dropped his support. Maybe on other stages be could have played it better but I think he was stitched up today, especially as so many teams are after stage wins after losing their team leaders.

Ok, i have now watched the highlights, i feel the radio guys were being a bit harsh, as you say he didnt do much wrong.

 

[Monsieur Remings]

If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan. I have faith in this. Kelly improved as a climber over his career, and he won that final 30km time trial in the 1988 Vuelta by virtue of really, really, really wanting it. He was also helped by Robert Millar in the mountains - a decent climbing domestique or two would be invaluable to Sagan.

He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course, just as Kelly did when he won the Vuelta, but if you're a canny racer, you tend to make your own luck - things like making sure you're on the right side of a split in the peloton on a wind-affected stage, for example. Maybe he is starting to realise he can't get by on enthusiasm alone and needs to learn to race more tactically.

He's not as great as Kelly yet. Not really really really...I mean it, really.

 

[StuAff]

He's not as great as Kelly yet. Not really really really...I mean it, really.

And nor is he doping as Kelly was.... I hope.

 

[Andrew Br]

It seems to me that Sagan is as marked now as Cancellara is.
It's ironic since Sagan has wheel-sucked Cancellara in the past .....................

.

 

[suzeworld]

He's such a marked man now. The way I see it he has two options in those situations. Either stay in the bunch and force their hand and/or not burn his teammates out and have at least one with him to cover the break.

This is basically what Boardman said.
I hope he manages to get at least one stage.

 

[smutchin]

He's not as great as Kelly yet.

Nor was Kelly at his age.

I'll accept that comparisons between Sagan and Kelly or Van Looy may be premature, but I don't think we've seen anything like the best of Sagan yet. He's still only 24, FFS. That means, what, three years before he hits his peak?

 

[Crackle]

This is basically what Boardman said.
I hope he manages to get at least one stage.

As Boardman said: He needed to close that gap when Gallopin went as no one else was going to do it and take Sagan with them.

 

[The Couch]

Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...

... I don't think we've seen anything like the best of Sagan yet. He's still only 24, FFS. That means, what, three years before he hits his peak?

I agree that in the past others have been able to change their specialty, but personally I don't think it can be done in the current "climate" of specialization.
(Gilbert, Cancellara, T. Martin, Gerrans,.. have shown multi-leveled talents in the past years as well, but none of them has/will ever be a GT contender)
I stay convinced he wants to win (a bunch of) classics first and say he's happy within 3-4 years with his Classics win total (which would mean he pretty needs to dominate them the next years), I still can't see him changing his "built" (at his age peak) so quickly that he will be able to match people like Quintana, Kelderman, Betancur, Aru, ... on the very long climbs (who already have the climber qualities now and are young as well)

That being said, he is an unbelievable talent, so he wouldn't totally blow me away if he could manage to do so
It just I don't think he will ever be interested enough in it

 

[smutchin]

That being said, he is an unbelievable talent, so he wouldn't totally blow me away if he could manage to do so

Yeah, I'm not saying it will definitely happen but I'm happy to stick my neck out and go so far as to say it's possible.

Of course he'll never compete with the climbing specialists like Quintana in the mountains, but if he lost a few kilos and had a stronger team around him, he could limit his losses enough to be in with a strong chance of a podium place at least.

It just I don't think he will ever be interested enough in it

To go back to @rich p's original post, no, I don't think he'd ultimately be satisfied with a career palmares showing the odd Classics win, a handful of stages and a wardrobe of green jerseys. But, you know, I've been wrong about things like this before and I dare say I'll be wrong again.