An incredible prediction of an entirely believable future!

[jonny jeez]

It all sounds good, until you get to this one small paragraph:

So we are all going to have a lot of spare time, but what are we going to do to earn money in order to enjoy that time?
No jobs and minimal spending by the public means very little tax income for the state. Economy collapses. We're doomed!
I'm taking sensible steps now by stockpiling bikes so that I have cheap transport and leisure for the bankrupt future, since my current pension will be worth zilch.

Well, the key here is that it wont be "us". I work in interior commercial architecture and have been designing with consideration to generation x and Y's desire for short term high yeald contracts that enable them to take regular time away from work to pursue other interests and means of income. No car ownership, no mortgage, no commitments and no financial responsibility.

Gen x will earn income from blogging, vlogging, publishing ( all essentially the same) content creation, design...and will sometimes do six months behind a desk (virtually or not) to top up their annual income.

The question I have for this generation is...what happens when you have kids, will the education system allow for such freedom and flexibility, will home schooling or neighbourhood tutoring become a "thing".

Its a really exciting time to witness.

 

[mickle]

None of us are likely to live long enough to see any of these come true, with the demented orange goon that's about to be made Leader of the Free World.

 

[jonny jeez]

I don't agree with a lot of that. Especially with cars and transport. There are far too many things you can't predict, like if people can order a self drive car and work whilst commuting then there'll be far more demand for it and the roads will be more clogged. Self drive cars don't reduce congestion, and there are always the high percentage of people who will still run ICE cars.

Secondly, all new "great" ideas that could transform the way we live will be bought up and wiped out by large companies or the government. Either that or the Gov will price/tax these ideas up so high that only the richest 10% afford them.

The desire for autonomous cars isn't about congestion. Its mostly about freedom from ownership and reduction of costs...finance, tax, insurance, fuel, parking. If you can work in a car they why does it matter how long the journey takes.

More realistically, people wont be commuting. Either by car or public transport...i mean what's the point in travelling 3 hours every day to do a job you can do from the kitchen table.

As soon as true high speed broadband is installed nationwide/worldwide, going to the office will be a nonsense.

 

[srw]

Gen x will earn income from blogging, vlogging, publishing ( all essentially the same) content creation, design...and will sometimes do six months behind a desk (virtually or not) to top up their annual income.

A few of them will. But in order to earn incoming from publishing someone needs to buy the output. Mozart and Haydn could survive with a ratio of one producer to one consumer, because the consumer was extremely rich. Dickens could thrive on a few thousand copies of his books. But a modern content producer has to find millions of people willing to buy their work (or find other ways of monetising it) because the cost of production and distribution has fallen to almost nothing.

 

[EltonFrog]

Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP (PotBO) Professor of the Bleeding Obvious.

 

[srw]

As soon as true high speed broadband is installed nationwide/worldwide, going to the office will be a nonsense.

But going to work in a hospital or a shop or a school, or as a doctor or a paramedic, or as a cleaner or a kitchen assistant won't be. I don't know the figure (and can't find it quickly), but my best guess is that rather less than half of us actually work in an office. And anyone who's ever done office work will know that although quite a lot of it can be done remotely, face-to-face working is still more efficient in many cases.

 

[srw]

Self drive cars don't reduce congestion

Self-drive cars coupled with real-time availability of information about congestion, road pricing algorithms that charge people for being stuck in traffic jams and flexible working arrangements will reduce congestion. And kill the ICE for all except a handful of fanatics.

 

[rich p]

I predict that in the very, very, near future (possibly only minutes away), some CCers will become virtually redundant at work, but nevertheless carry on drawing a salary while posting prolifically on the internet...

 

[jonny jeez]

A few of them will. But in order to earn incoming from publishing someone needs to buy the output. Mozart and Haydn could survive with a ratio of one producer to one consumer, because the consumer was extremely rich. Dickens could thrive on a few thousand copies of his books. But a modern content producer has to find millions of people willing to buy their work (or find other ways of monetising it) because the cost of production and distribution has fallen to almost nothing.

Fortunately, we have the internet. Which Mozart probably would have loved. Youtube alone allows incomes from monetized content provision that can exceed many average "salarys". Keep in mind that no single stream of income will be required but a gaggle of different means. Some people may just write code for apps, or render scenes for game producers or even create whole virtual universes by working together with millions of other contributors on a collaborative basis. This will fragment the audience and allow plenty of opportunity for income.

 

[srw]

Fortunately, we have the internet. Which Mozart probably would have loved. Youtube alone allows incomes from monetized content provision that can exceed many average "salarys". Keep in mind that no single stream of income will be required but a gaggle of different means. Some people may just write code for apps, or render scenes for game producers or even create whole virtual universes by working together with millions of other contributors on a collaborative basis. This will fragment the audience and allow plenty of opportunity for income.

Do the sums. Someone, somewhere, needs to pay for that "monetised content provision". As well as paying for their housing, food, heating and all the other fripperies of a modern life.

The economics just don't add up. Producing "monetised content" (and by "monetised content" in the end you mean, in most cases, "adverts") will never be a source of meaningful income for more than a handful of people in global terms - even if we assume (as I don't) that the internet will be around in its current form for more than a few more years.

 

[jonny jeez]

But going to work in a hospital or a shop or a school, or as a doctor or a paramedic, or as a cleaner or a kitchen assistant won't be. I don't know the figure (and can't find it quickly), but my best guess is that rather less than half of us actually work in an office. And anyone who's ever done office work will know that although quite a lot of it can be done remotely, face-to-face working is still more efficient in many cases.

67 is the magic number.

67% take up of staff input in consultations bodes well for change and oddly 67%occupation rates justify a change in workplace strategy.

Both are only from my experience and are based on European operations (with a tiny bit of north America)

 

[Fnaar]

Im quite excited by the potential of our technology, and I hope (glass half full) we sort things out in time to not mess our planet up completely (but then again....)

Most lists of predictions get one or two things right or right-ish, and the rest wrong.

When I can commute home on my hover-ped to a romantic dinner with robo-wife, I'll be happy

 

[jonny jeez]

Do the sums. Someone, somewhere, needs to pay for that "monetised content provision". As well as paying for their housing, food, heating and all the other fripperies of a modern life.

The economics just don't add up. Producing "monetised content" (and by "monetised content" in the end you mean, in most cases, "adverts") will never be a source of meaningful income for more than a handful of people in global terms - even if we assume (as I don't) that the internet will be around in its current form for more than a few more years.

I agree but as I mention in my last, ad income is not the only way to support your annual salary.

Also you are trying to use current availability, demand and technology to support future, predicted lifestyles....just look at what's happened in the last three years to see how impossible that is.

All bets are off.

 

[srw]

67 is the magic number.

67% take up of staff input in consultations bodes well for change and oddly 67%occupation rates justify a change in workplace strategy.

Both are only from my experience and are based on European operations (with a tiny bit of north America)

But that "workplace strategy" (by which you mean "getting people to pay for their own offices") is only ever going to be relevant for office workers. And, coincidentally, according to this survey commissioned by an organisation cheerleading for remote working, very nearly 67% of us don't work from an office all the time.

 

[srw]

I agree but as I mention in my last, ad income is not the only way to support your annual salary.

Also you are trying to use current availability, demand and technology to support future, predicted lifestyles....just look at what's happened in the last three years to see how impossible that is.

All bets are off.

One bet isn't off. Which is that if someone is paid for doing something, someone else is paying them to do it. I'm using maths, and only maths.