Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

Most of western europe is doing better than the UK

I sought to offer an insight to your assessment above: that's all. It didn't seem 'fact-based'.
You can now nit-pick over what 'doing better' looks like: pick your own irrelevant timeframe if this month doesn't suit.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Hospital bed occupancy by patients with a positive COVID-19 test in the last 28 days has dropped from about 9.4k on 1 Nov to maybe 8.2k yesterday. Let's hope the renewed effectiveness the third dose offers the older and CEV section of our community means fewer will end up in hospital or worse, and even if cases go on yo-yoing, the admissions and occupancy will continue to trend down (and fewer deaths) and less demand on the health service.

 

[mjr]

I sought to offer an insight to your assessment above: that's all. It didn't seem 'fact-based'.
You can now nit-pick over what 'doing better' looks like: pick your own irrelevant timeframe if this month doesn't suit.

It was fact-based and the rebuttal ignored "most of" and "western" (Hungary, really?) as well as making unsupported claims about testing regimes, then cherry-picking countries.

Also, it was based on numbers now half a week old and exponential growth is a pain sometimes.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Study: COVID-19 mortality risk correlates inversely with Vitamin D3 status
[People are less likely to die if their Vit D3 levels are higher.]
Conclusions (precised) - and recent review (10 minute video by John Campbell)
"Meta-analysis of two independent sets of data (March 2021 - pre-vaccination). Both datasets show a strong correlation between the death rate caused by SARS-CoV-2 and 'vitamin D' (it's a hormone) [in the] blood level. At a threshold level of 30 ng/ml, mortality decreases considerably."
Comment: This is above average for UK and people (in particular) living in densely populated parts of UK cities have below average 'vitamin D' in the blood levels. " The PHE National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008 to 2012) showed [about 22% of the UK population] have low levels (below 25 ng/ml) of vitamin D in their blood." Vast majority of the frailer over 70s don't get out in the sunshine enough (wild assertion based on an N=1 study of my mother).

"In addition, [the study's] analysis shows that the correlation for the combined datasets intersects the axis at approximately 50 ng/ml, which suggests that this vitamin D3 blood level may prevent any excess mortality. These findings are supported not only by a large infection study, showing the same optimum but also by the natural levels observed in traditional people living in the region where humanity originated from that were able to fight down most (not all) infections in most (not all) individuals."

"Vaccination is and will be an important keystone in our fight against SARS-CoV-2. However, current data clearly show that vaccination alone cannot prevent all SARS-CoV-2 infections and dissemination of the virus. Based on our data, the [study's] authors strongly recommend combining vaccination with routine strengthening of the immune system of the whole population by vitamin D3 supplementation to consistently guarantee blood levels above 50 ng/ml."

A good way to achieve this is either plenty of sun exposure (half the time it takes to burn) or take 4000IU daily (and a tad of K2 to reduce to negligible the unproven risk of blood vessel calcification).
Disclosure: I decided this proposition had wings (and zero downside) this time last year and have been taking 4000IU plus K2 daily since then.
Was £10 for 180; now £12 for 400.

 

[vickster]

Study: COVID-19 mortality risk correlates inversely with Vitamin D3 status
[People are less likely to die if their Vit D3 levels are higher.]
Conclusions (precised) - and recent review (10 minute video by John Campbell)
"Meta-analysis of two independent sets of data (March 2021 - pre-vaccination). Both datasets show a strong correlation between the death rate caused by SARS-CoV-2 and 'vitamin D' (it's a hormone) [in the] blood level. At a threshold level of 30 ng/ml, mortality decreases considerably."
Comment: This is above average for UK and people (in particular) living in densely populated parts of UK cities have below average 'vitamin D' in the blood levels. " The PHE National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008 to 2012) showed [about 22% of the UK population] have low levels (below 25 ng/ml) of vitamin D in their blood." Vast majority of the frailer over 70s don't get out in the sunshine enough (wild assertion based on an N=1 study of my mother).

"In addition, [the study's] analysis shows that the correlation for the combined datasets intersects the axis at approximately 50 ng/ml, which suggests that this vitamin D3 blood level may prevent any excess mortality. These findings are supported not only by a large infection study, showing the same optimum but also by the natural levels observed in traditional people living in the region where humanity originated from that were able to fight down most (not all) infections in most (not all) individuals."

"Vaccination is and will be an important keystone in our fight against SARS-CoV-2. However, current data clearly show that vaccination alone cannot prevent all SARS-CoV-2 infections and dissemination of the virus. Based on our data, the [study's] authors strongly recommend combining vaccination with routine strengthening of the immune system of the whole population by vitamin D3 supplementation to consistently guarantee blood levels above 50 ng/ml."

A good way to achieve this is either plenty of sun exposure (half the time it takes to burn) or take 4000IU daily (and a tad of K2 to reduce to negligible the unproven risk of blood vessel calcification).
Disclosure: I decided this proposition had wings (and zero downside) this time last year and have been taking 4000IU plus K2 daily since then.
Was £10 for 180; not £12 for 400.

What’s your level on that dosage? My rheumatologist has just increased mine to 3000 based on my recent test results

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

What’s your level on that dosage? My rheumatologist has just increased mine to 3000 based on my recent test results

If you're using IU measurements, AB states 4000iu in his second from last sentence.

I've been taking the same dosage for at least a year - ever since Zoe flagged it up - and getting an elderly and frail relative to do likewise. However, I gather there is some information somewhere about taking it on an empty stomach weakening its efficacy. @Ajax Bay may know more.

 

[vickster]

If you're using IU measurements, AB states 4000ui in his second from last sentence.

I've been taking the same dosage for at least a year - ever since Zoe flagged it up - and getting an elderly and frail relative to do likewise. However, I gather there is some information somewhere about taking it on an empty stomach weakening its efficacy. @Ajax Bay may know more.

His Vit D level. 4000IU is the dosage. Post revised for clarity

I take mine after breakfast with other pills/vits

 

[mjr]

All together now: correlation is not causation.

Still, there's probably at worst no harm keeping your vitamin levels up, as long as you don't expect invincibility and the cost doesn't hurt you

 

[Ajax Bay]

Testing for 1,25(OH)2D3 (what is measured to determine one's 'vitamin D level') is not expensive but not cheap either.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/
I just take the 4000IU D3 plus 0.1mg K2 daily and expect my blood levels will be 'up there'.
The tiny tabs I take with my OJ at breakfast cost about 6p each. The D3/K2 gets absorbed better with a bit of fat around (auiu): my breakfast contains some fat.
Of course decent levels of D3 are beneficial for all sorts of reasons, not just immunological.
I have no specialist knowledge in this area.
Edit to add: I take no other supplementation. The study I shared persuasively shows a clear inverse correlation and one can note the sections of population which have low average Vitamin D levels, and the correlation between those sections and higher than average levels of SARS-COV-2 morbidity.

 

[Julia9054]

Vit D supplements are as cheap as chips. Most of us Northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are somewhat deficient in winter. Due to having skin cancer last year I live in a bucket of factor 50 all year round and therefore take a maximum dosage supplement.
I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)

 

[slowmotion]

Vit D supplements are as cheap as chips. Most of us Northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are somewhat deficient in winter. Due to having skin cancer last year I live in a bucket of factor 50 all year round and therefore take a maximum dosage supplement.
I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)

They certainly are. I was put on D3 nine years ago, 1000IU every other day. To save time getting a prescription, I bought a four year supply on eBay for £6.50. Of course, they may well be fakes, but the placebo effect seems to be holding up even if they are not.

 

[rockyroller]

the outdoor dining options are drying up around here. lots of ppl crowding into indoor restaurants w/o any mask or vaccination requirements. went out for Mexican food last night w/ Wifey. we were only 1 party of 3 on the patio. they had heaters but it was cold. I felt like I got dirty looks when I masked up to go inside to the mens' room. 3 times vaxxed but I still like eating out, OUTSIDE. especially the week before seeing elderly relatives

 

[Ajax Bay]

It’s bitterly disappointing to see these likely outcomes across Europe, which have been predicted, but nations were just (politically) unwilling or unable to take prompt NPI measures. Case fatality rate estimates (ie estimate of percentage of the number of deaths reported of the number of cases reported)

So UK is at ~0.4%. Daily average cases about 40,000, daily average deaths (within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test) about 150. This plot is based on OWID data.
Edit: For those for whom it might not be clear, a high CFR may be a result of high(er) deaths or a lower reported case rate than actual infections. In UK the latter is deduced (from reported case rate and ONS data) to be about half. In other (all) countries the testing and reporting stringency 'varies'.
Second addition: CFR above is the detected-and-reported case fatality rate (and assumes internationally consistent 'death by or with COVID-19' reporting). If they're detecting a lower fraction of infections, this CFR will be higher. Please don't infer actual fatality of the virus - it's not suitable for that. One might assume for the same levels of health care, Delta will have specific IFR (medium confidence) in every nation.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I have the immune system of an ox despite working in a plague pit (aka secondary school)

Currently, in your game of 'plague pit top trumps', your primary school colleagues are running you close. Note below that they are keeping the vaccinated immunity levels of their parents (assumed) topped up (a bit).

 

[MrGrumpy]

Booster booked for Week before Christmas , a week earlier than the 6 months but no appt available after that and into January. One Week I don’t think is going to make much odds