Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

We aren't seeing any count of deaths in care homes, only the occasional figure reporting around a fith of resident's have died in a particular home. It's worrying for those of us with relatives in care homes, especilly ones that will die if they get this. It's like a ticking time bomb.

I believe france keeps a tally for care homes.

There were some estimates yesterday www.guardian.co.uk/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll

 

[kingrollo]

The advice is that mild, managed asthma does not put you at any greater risk than a non-sufferer.

Yes - but to manage my asthma - amongst others I use a tiotrpuim inhaler. Which does classify me as high risk - per asthma UK and my GP.

 

[bitsandbobs]

How much spacing when running or cycling?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/lif.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

This is all based on one interview given by a Dutch academic to a Belgian newspaper. There is no study publication as yet, peer-reviewed or otherwise. Treat with a hefty dose of scepticism.

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/...spreading-coronavirus-is-not-actually-a-study

 

[tom73]

There is a dread and morbid fear of the virus that provokes irrational behaviour, so that the vast majority kicking off and demanding an ambulance to hospital, don't have the virus.

I don't know if any medical people on here could shed any light but I have seen an A4 file passing between our medics that I am forbidden to view. It's called "The Cornomoaner Files".

They may demand an ambulance but won't get one. Patient pathways have been changed along with admission protocols even an ECA can now refuse to transport to hospital. Which they normally don't have the protocol to do.

 

[kingrollo]

They may demand an ambulance but won't get one. Patient pathways have been changed along with admission protocols even an ECA can now refuse to transport to hospital. Which they normally don't have the protocol to do.

What is the process for an admission? - presumably someone with clinical knowledge deems you I'll enough to be admitted

Who is that person ?

Do you then make you own way to hospital - or is it ambulance ?

 

[Blue Hills]

I"m no doc or scientist, but this might just be hopeful (yes i know 60,000 is a lot of tragedies)
From the beeb quoting a respected i think figure, ie not his grandstanding nutjob boss.

@@@@@
Dr Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told NBC News' Today show on Thursday the final number of Americans who will die from Covid-19 in the outbreak "looks more like 60,000".

In late March, Dr Fauci estimated "between 100,000 and 200,000" could die.

The 60,000 projection would match the upper estimate for total flu deaths in the US between October 2019 to March 2020, according to government data.

@@@@

 

[Venod]

Social distancing rarnd ere.

 

[Pale Rider]

I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.

We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.

But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?

 

[Rezillo]

Peter Hitchens has been saying that, like prostate cancer, people have been dying with the disease, not because of it.

Most victims are already elderly or have other health conditions. If they could on average be expected to live another five years then crashing the economy would be worth it. If it's only six months then it's probably not, but still it would be terrible to see the health services completely overwhelmed, with elderly patients dying in corridors and makeshift wards with next to no medical treatment. The government would certainly receive a lot of criticism for it.

The disease seems to be more deadly if you get a high initial dose. The Chinese doctor who was punished for whistle blowing died of the disease and he was quite young.

View attachment 513852

Normally, the BBC does a reasonable job in presenting stats but that's a rather odd way of expressing the data to the general public. At first glance, one would look at that and think that shows more deaths in the 80+ age group and that a minority of deaths had no underlying health condition.

That's not the case though. Each age group gets smaller in number as age increases so the number of people in the 80+ age group is much smaller than the 70 to 79 group and so on. The higher case fatality ratio in the 80+ age group amounts to a smaller number of deaths than in the 70 - 79 age group because they are a higher percentage of a smaller total of people.

The figures appear to come from this study:

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

208 deaths in the 80+ category, 312 deaths in 70-79 years, 309 deaths in 60-69 years and 130 deaths in 50-59 years. So, many more deaths in the 60-69 category, despite a lower case fatality ratio.

The reason why this is significant is because when it comes to co-morbid coditions, such as diabetes and hypertension, these are controllable conditions for many people. Someone in their 60s could expect another decade or two of life. They would not expect to be struck down now by bi-lateral pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Much the same goes for co-morbidity, whose stats are also in that report, albeit for a sub-section of 21,000 patients and 504 deaths, A 0.9% case fatality ratio for having no co-morbid condition actually equates to 33.8% of deaths having no co-morbid condition.

Peter Hitchens is a disgrace.

 

[kingrollo]

I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.

We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.

But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?

Probably not - but it buys time - hopefully better treatments will come on line - and everyone who needs it gets access to a hospital bed - and the time are buying is time that can be spent on a vaccine.

 

[lane]

Yes - but to manage my asthma - amongst others I use a tiotrpuim inhaler. Which does classify me as high risk - per asthma UK and my GP.

I fall into that category but as I have a flu jab I come into the same group as over 70s which means I should be "particularly stringent" with social distancing. That doesn't mean I can't go out at all which is the case for the most at risk people. Am I at higher risk? None of us knows as far as I can see it's a bit of a lottery.

 

[lane]

I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.

We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.

But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?

It all depends what happens afterwards - which is a bit of a statement of the obvious but, if they find better ways of managing it with more testing and targeted restrictions and ultimately a vaccine if might be possible to reduce the number of infections overtime compared with what happens with no lockdown. We will probably move to much more targeted restrictions once the lockdown ends and these will probably be in place for a long time.

 

[tom73]

What is the process for an admission? - presumably someone with clinical knowledge deems you I'll enough to be admitted

Who is that person ?

Do you then make you own way to hospital - or is it ambulance ?

If you need to go that is still happening. Ambo's on the whole work to set protocols if person has A do B.
Even if a person will end up at Z a Dr or Nurse can go from A to Z in one go.
What they've done is opened them up a bit for the minor stuff and the discharge pathway.
One example from a few days ago.
A ECA friend of mine got called to woman with a pain in her leg.
So they went though the normally basic stuff ect, ect
1st Q have you taken any pain killers?
woman.... No
Mate .... So you've a pain in leg and not taken anything for it ?
woman.... No
Mate gives her two paracetamol waits with her for 20 mins
Mate..... How's your leg?
woman.... A lot better now
They give her advice and leave.
Normally they'd have to take her in.
They can demand all they want but won't get taken in they now have the right to refuse.
It's not open session to refuse though they still have to work within set protocols. It's freeing up crew time in ways that are long over due.
Neither has it taken away a Paramedics requirement to act in line with being a registered HCP.
If none para crew need's more advice as always they contact control and speak to the Nurse or para on duty.

Given that your now looking at a 2 hour turn around time to deep clean a vehicle.
Every time you take someone in covid or not. Even if stop one simple time waste call per shift, per vehicle ect. The savings are massive.

 

[kingrollo]

Everyone is being really nice to each other this morning ??????
Is that a symptom ? - are we all infected !!!?

 

[mjr]

News from rtbf in Belgium: again more leave hospital than enter, volunteers instead of army into care homes, masks found with fake certificates (pic), sports halls as improvised morgues (pic), hospital staff protesting underfunding and against current health minister (pic), fines for spitting (pic) and up to two years jail if it hits anyone, skin problems claimed to be symptom but dermatologue points out it could be due to extra washing, adaptation of child health visits, worries about lockdown breaches over Easter, contact tracing in USA shows one man resulted in 35 known infections, ceasefire in Yemen, record April temperatures, gîtes for healthcare workers, MOTs continue by appointment, continuing postponements of sports.