How fast am I ... hypothetically

[Ride]

Hi all,

I'm a commuter that is considering purchasing a road bike for racing. Currently my commuter (2012 Trek 7.5 FX Disc) weighs in at about 22kg when fully loaded with the panniers and the like (it has full fenders and some other goodies as well) and I weigh around 78kg . I have a long and short route commute. The short route is 15km and I average 25kph on this route. The long route is 30km and I average 22kph on this route (the first 15km being the short route and at the 25kph pace).

How fast would I be on a road bike? I've been looking at the 2013 Trek Madone 5.9 as a road bike but it does not have disc brakes (I want hydraulic) so I probably wont get it. There are 3 male classes in the local races here (A, B, C; A the best) but more than half of the races only run for class A and B. I think to be reasonable in the C class I would need to be able to do the 30km route at a pace of 33kph. For A class, probably 43kph.

Is there any hope for me in road racing? Is there some formula that can be used to estimate how fast I would be on a road bike of 8kg versus my 22kg commuter? Also I'm on track to drop 7kg this upcoming year after dropping 9kg over the last year since starting commuting.

Thanks,

Ride

 

[raindog]

Streuth, if someone can work this out mathematically and give you an answer, I'll go back to using clips and straps.

 

[potsy]

Ride, why don't you go and see how fast you can do it without all the gear?
Your Trek would be 11-12kg with a minimum of essentials

 

[redcard]

It depends if you have a tail or a headwind

 

[PaulB]

Well I cycled at a speed of OVER 4,140 MPH today! And I can prove it, look here http://connect.garmin.com/activity/200827117 This is my ride from earlier and just have a look at the 'Max Speed' heading under 'Details' and there it is! I'm quite impressed, actually.

 

[Boris Bajic]

I have carried out extensive studies in just this area and may be able to help.

Riding at a constant 20 mph for one hour, you will cover 20 miles and will have achieved an average of 20 mph.

If you increase this by 2 mph, you ought to find you are going 10% faster.

However, if you do the same speed but for only 30 minutes, you will have covered only half the distance. I am not sure why this is so, but extensive tests suggest that it is.

I kept all my workings for this experiment, but I think I put them in the washing machine.

As to racing: There is always hope. If you work jolly hard and train properly, you will get faster.

If you also prepare properly, you will be faster again.

 

[montage]

Is there any hope for me in road racing?

Yes


It will be a huge shock to the system, especially the changes in pace. Get some sprint work in so that you can adjust to changes in pace.

If you get dropped first time, don't worry, you'll get stronger

 

[BSRU]

Would it not be better to keep the heavy bike for commuting and by a road bike for training/racing.

 

[Gary E]

I have carried out extensive studies in just this area and may be able to help.

Riding at a constant 20 mph for one hour, you will cover 20 miles and will have achieved an average of 20 mph.

If you increase this by 2 mph, you ought to find you are going 10% faster.

However, if you do the same speed but for only 30 minutes, you will have covered only half the distance. I am not sure why this is so, but extensive tests suggest that it is.

I kept all my workings for this experiment, but I think I put them in the washing machine.

As to racing: There is always hope. If you work jolly hard and train properly, you will get faster.

If you also prepare properly, you will be faster again.

With this sort of comprehensive scientific advice how can you fail to improve. Once again Cyclechat has all the answers

 

[redcard]

With this sort of comprehensive scientific advice how can you fail to improve. Once again Cyclechat has all the answers

In the real world you'd have to pay for advice like that

 

[Gary E]

In the real world you'd have to pay for advice like that

It's the sort of information that the pro's normally like to keep to themselves

 

[zizou]

You won't be allowed to race on the road with disc brakes...the rules will probably change in the future but that is the case just now.

 

[black'n'yellow]

There are 3 male classes in the local races here (A, B, C; A the best) but more than half of the races only run for class A and B.

I don't recognise that category structure, so presumably you are not in the UK? Why not just start riding with a local club and you will soon find out where you're at...

 

[Ajay]

...Bermuda

 

[Noodley]

In all seriousness, the only way you will find out is if you buy a road bike and give it a go.