How hopeful are you that the future will be much better?

[sheddy]

Unfortunately we have fat media and bid businesses who are still actively lobbying to sell lies to a carcentric population.

 

[IaninSheffield]

In order to look forward, perhaps it helps to first look back?
In the decade to 2019, trends have been rather mixed (PDF - DfT Walking and Cycling Statistics, England: 2019): average number of miles cycled is increasing, although number of trips is decreasing; fewer children are cycling to school; number of fatalities & serious injuries amongst cyclists is increasing.
These are gentle trends rather than significant ones; as @Drago observed, change appears to be slow. Also, as others have already observed, the figures would seem to vary significantly according to region/locality. And of course the figures which contribute to the above precede any shifts which have emerged in the last 12 months.

We could then consider some of the drivers of change which are becoming more prominent now than might have been in the past:

• climate change imperatives leading to shifts in policy (need to improve air quality, congestion charging, 'taxation' of high emissions etc)
• changes in motoring - increasing autonomy in vehicle function (HT @HMS_Dave), shift away from ICE (HT @Drago)
• increasing prevalence and acceptance of ebikes
• Cyclescheme (Bike 2 Work scheme)
• increasing cycle share schemes (not always with success, and only in urban areas of course)
• wider appointment of 'cycling' commissioners such as Chris Boardman & Lee Craigie (could be seen as paying no more than lip-service, or one more nudge in the right direction)

And others may arise from what we have learnt in the past 12 months e.g. Boris' £2b cycling and walking revolution. However, I can't escape the feeling this all seems rather piecemeal and lacks the impetus of a national strategy which grabs the bull by the bar ends, in the same way the Dutch did in the 70s

View: https://youtu.be/XuBdf9jYj7o


I'm not sure there's the same desire here in the UK right now that there was in the Netherlands back then. But perhaps perceptions are shifting?

How hopeful am I that the future will be much better?
Better? Yes, guardedly hopeful.
Much better? Not so much, at least not within a decade.

 

[mjr]

When fighting cancer the scientists aren't forced to take into account the views of the Marlboro Man.

Maybe not scientists, but maybe politicians should be: original Marlboro Man Bob Norris quit in disgust at the effect of his ads on children and contributed to anti-smoking campaigns. Norris never smoked, while one of his successors, Wayne McLaren, did and then starred in an anti-smoking ad from his hospital bed.

It's one of those ironic tales, like Marcel Renault dying racing cars and his brother Louis banning the company from motor racing (but eventually losing control by dying in prison in dodgy cirumstances awaiting trial for collaborating with the Nazis - there are some seriously unethical people in car production).

 

[IaninSheffield]

What I suspect this is likely to result in is a change in ownership. Rather than sinking capital into a car for exclusive use people will be paying at the time of use for transport services from someone - either car sharing or an Uber type model. A bit like the fact that no company sinks capital into datacentres any more.

Whether this will result in more cycling or not I have no idea.

You may be right, but do people/individuals apply the same logics as businesses do? Are they driven by similar goals?

 

[swee'pea99]

Meanwhile back in True Blue-land...

"When the lane was removed, the local authority cited local opposition as the reason, even though this turned out to be emails from 322 residents, or 0.2% of the borough’s population.

A subsequent poll, commissioned by Khan’s office, found 56% of borough residents backed the lane, against 30% who opposed it. Business and organisations based in the borough, including Imperial College London, the Albert Hall, and Peter Jones, have called for the lane to return."

But no. The council has decided on a feasibility study. AKA kick it into the long grass till all the fuss dies down...

 

[sheddy]

I think Cambridge are planning driverless minibuses, running very frequently on demand along bus routes.

 

[mjr]

I think Cambridge are planning driverless minibuses, running very frequently on demand along bus routes.

Cambridgeshire Autonomous Metro. Most things I've seen say it'll be tunnelled under the city centre, which seems a bit of an expensive choice in such a notoriously wet lowland. Also, buses are planned to use at least some of the current busways but the proposed tunnel uses a different guidance system. All rather odd to me and some suggest bi-mode battery-electric trolleybuses would make more sense.

Anyway, it has the backing of their mayor so maybe is more likely to happen than the much cheaper and more beneficial out-of-city cycleways.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

I'm not sure there's the same desire here in the UK right now that there was in the Netherlands back then. But perhaps perceptions are shifting?

How hopeful am I that the future will be much better?
Better? Yes, guardedly hopeful.
Much better? Not so much, at least not within a decade.

I wish there was but i don't think that change is coming anytime soon, what i see around me is too less to late and made designed by people who are unlikely to ever use it themselves. Which leads to a cycle lane that merges with a 2 lane 70mph road for example, and if that was because they would be no space you could argue something like '' they needed to do something etc.'; but it's not probably after an x amount of yards it no longer their problem because it is an other council/county council whatever.
That also a difference with the Netherlands, watermanagement, roads etc. are all controlled by one government body.(and i'm in general not a favor of a big goverment but it this example it works really well.)

 

[mjr]

probably after an x amount of yards it no longer their problem because it is an other council/county council whatever.

Oh I know far too many examples of that. In London, most cycle routes that stray onto a road controlled by Kensington Borough downgrade abruptly. In the West Midlands, there's an OK-but-not-great cycleway along the A429 that dumps you back onto the wrong side of the road at the Warwickshire boundary, although it looks like they have at least extended the 30mph limit since the first time I rode it, making it marginally easier not to get squished as you merge across by a motorist approaching from over your left shoulder. https://showmystreet.com/#v6a85_-xh27_77.a_-af43

That also a difference with the Netherlands, watermanagement, roads etc. are all controlled by one government body.(and i'm in general not a favor of a big goverment but it this example it works really well.)

But then there's Belgium, which is almost as good for cycling (but not quite) and such things in Flanders are currently controlled by a cluster fark of 2300ish government bodies (consolidation into I think 17 was agreed a week or two ago). I think they've done it by making their Cycling/Road Design handbook compulsory by law and having a regulator slapping roads authorities silly if they deviate too far. That could happen in England, with Active Travel England as the slapper, but we still don't know whether it will or not... here's hoping!

 

[mickle]

Cycling infra is a total red herring. We've a nationwide system of roads, perfectly good enough for cycling. The problem is that we are obliged to share it with drivers of motor vehicles. The answer, in my view, is not to marginalise cyclists into their own (incomplete, poorly designed, poorly maintained) ghetto of cycling facilities, it's to exclude or restrict motor vehicles. Slow em down, introduce presumed liability, firmly enforce existing laws and, when the opportunity arises, redesign roads and junctions to prioritise the safe passage of peds and pedallers. If we wait for a parallel cycling network which covers the whole county we'll be waiting forever. Literally forever.

 

[mjr]

Cycling infra is a total red herring. We've a nationwide system of roads, perfectly good enough for cycling. The problem is that we are obliged to share it with drivers of motor vehicles. The answer, in my view, is not to marginalise cyclists into their own (incomplete, poorly designed, poorly maintained) ghetto of cycling facilities, it's to exclude or restrict motor vehicles. Slow em down, introduce presumed liability, firmly enforce existing laws and, when the opportunity arises, redesign roads and junctions to prioritise the safe passage of peds and pedallers. If we wait for a parallel cycling network which covers the whole county we'll be waiting forever. Literally forever.

Ah, the good old "parallel cycling network which covers the whole count[r]y" myth. No. No-one is waiting for or expecting that any time soon. Excluding or restricting motor vehicles is a fine way to make existing roads acceptable cycling infrastructure. I'm all in favour of that. It's what they do in the Netherlands: I think more than half of my first cycling tour in the Netherlands was done on motor-restricted roads rather than specific cycleways.

But it's a tough slog: I asked for some on-road parts of NCN1 to be closed at one end to motorists. Officially, Norfolk County Council are still considering it, something like 2 years later. I'm not sure whether delaying is a way to avoid yet another formal complaint (or worse, if Cycling UK feel like dragging NCC to court like they are West Sussex), or whether officers are hoping the politicians might approve it after the elections which have been delayed to this year.

If we start getting success restricting roads anywhere, then I've a stack of ideas for some that should be demotorised (no-through-motors or residents/access only for sections) and prioritised for cycling: Dereham Lane/Road from Easton near Norwich through Dereham to Dunham; Banbury Lane from Northampton to Banbury; Akeman Street from Bicester to Cirencester (where extant); Welsh Way from Fairford to Cirencester; and so on...

But I also think we probably have to accept that A roads dominated by high-speed motorists (what used to be trunk roads, basically) probably will need cycleways alongside where they're useful to cyclists. That is affordable, less than £3bn to do the whole country was the estimate a few years ago.

We probably need to use the whole toolbox. Encouragement alone never worked. I don't think only law changes and minimal junction redesigns will work either. Even cycleways alone will never work, as correctly stated above. Is there the stomach to get these tools out nationally? I don't know. If not now, then when?

 

[Drago]

The government should work out how many gazillions have been spent on scrappage schemes, grants towards the purchase of battery cars, etc, and devote the same about to buying new bicycles for those that want to cycle.

 

[Mike Ayling]

The government should work out how many gazillions have been spent on scrappage schemes, grants towards the purchase of battery cars, etc, and devote the same about to buying new bicycles for those that want to cycle.

Hear Hear, preferably the 9,000 quid jobbies!

 

[mjr]

The government should work out how many gazillions have been spent on scrappage schemes, grants towards the purchase of battery cars, etc, and devote the same about to buying new bicycles for those that want to cycle.

The Bicycle Association called for zero VAT on bikes and parts, and grants for ebikes. https://road.cc/content/news/industry-calls-no-vat-bikes-subsidies-e-bikes-273329

I would also like to see "ecotap" charging points in every town (so ebikes can survive with smaller batteries, so lighter, so greener) and grants for cargo bikes, trailers and so on that are conditional on putting it on a spinlister-style site so neighbours can hire it easily.

 

[icowden]

Proper self driving cars are miles away (pardon the pun) from reality and even then it will take decades for normal cars to be driven off the roads.

Er...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-full-self-driving-release-in-2021

Yes - thats Stage 5 Self Driving. Fully autonomous. Requiring no human input.

Now he was saying they were close by the end of 2020, and Elon is known to underestimate the time it takes to do things but... miles away? Nope.
Once the bans on ICE cars come in from 2030 onwards, I think we will see "normal" cars disappearing quite quickly. Plus if it becomes cheaper to summon an autonomous car than to pay for your own car, car ownership will fall dramatically. It becomes a luxury for those who really want it.