How hopeful are you that the future will be much better?

[Gunk]

Yes - thats Stage 5 Self Driving. Fully autonomous. Requiring no human input.

That is a truly frightening prospect

 

[icowden]

That is a truly frightening prospect

I can see why you might think that, but you do have to balance it with the fact that an AI can't get drunk, angry, testosterone fuelled etc. It has faster reactions and a much better attitude to safety. So - swings and roundabouts.

 

[DRM]

I can see why you might think that, but you do have to balance it with the fact that an AI can't get drunk, angry, testosterone fuelled etc. It has faster reactions and a much better attitude to safety. So - swings and roundabouts.

View: https://youtu.be/8Jlo5C8ydb4

The video above is nearly 6 years old, notice that the trucks have no damage on them, no scratches, no blue scrapes of paint where they've hit Chep pallets, so the old adage that for a moving vehicle most of the collisions are caused by the nut that holds the steering is true, it's not much of a leap forward to make an autonomous car, which are now well developed, the good thing is that the computer controlling the car doesn't read the Daily Wail, and have an irrational hatred of cyclists.

 

[rogerzilla]

Worse. This is a spectacularly fat and lazy country with a huge motoring lobby, and a planning system that has resulted in car-dependent housing estates.

 

[DRM]

The car adverts are laughable, look at this lovely new car, being driven on a totally empty road, when in reality it should be shown stuck in a jam, then eventually the jam clears as it's driven at excess speed 6 inches from the car in front because the traffic has made me late (occupant fails to realize they are the traffic) and this idiot in front has the audacity to drive within the speed limit/laws.
Everywhere in Britain seems to have out of town shopping that's only accessible by car, supermarkets did a marvelous job of killing town center's and again are car friendly, not bike or pedestrian, we really have got ourselves tied in knots with the car, and how it's used, it's viewed as a right, not a privilege, and a status symbol, not a tool to do a job

 

[Milkfloat]

Er...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-full-self-driving-release-in-2021

Yes - thats Stage 5 Self Driving. Fully autonomous. Requiring no human input.

Now he was saying they were close by the end of 2020, and Elon is known to underestimate the time it takes to do things but... miles away? Nope.
Once the bans on ICE cars come in from 2030 onwards, I think we will see "normal" cars disappearing quite quickly. Plus if it becomes cheaper to summon an autonomous car than to pay for your own car, car ownership will fall dramatically. It becomes a luxury for those who really want it.

Whatever the Tesla fan boy press says, they are a long way from full autonomy, they need far too much human input to be level 5. Don’t get me wrong, they are doing very well, but not level 5 well, still too many hurdles to overcome.

 

[keithmac]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.amp.html

 

[icowden]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.amp.html

Yep:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50484172

A driverless car was being tested, the safety operator was streaming a movie and the pedestrian was crossing in an unsafe area. Lots of fault all round.
Your point is?

 

[icowden]

Whatever the Tesla fan boy press says, they are a long way from full autonomy,

Not the press. Tesla. The Technoking of Tesla. And "a long way" depends on your definition of "a long way".
Personally I think it'll be here quicker than we all think.

 

[Milkfloat]

Not the press. Tesla. The Technoking of Tesla. And "a long way" depends on your definition of "a long way".
Personally I think it'll be here quicker than we all think.

My company produces map data for a large percentage of these vehicles and processes huge amounts of their sensor data. True level 5 is at least 10 years away. Their might be claims otherwise, but for sure you won’t be summoning a car, getting in for a snooze and waking up at your destination for a long time.

 

[Archie_tect]

I can see why you might think that, but you do have to balance it with the fact that an AI can't get drunk, angry, testosterone fuelled etc. It has faster reactions and a much better attitude to safety. So - swings and roundabouts.

They'll be tops at roundabouts.

 

[byegad]

Er...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-full-self-driving-release-in-2021

Yes - thats Stage 5 Self Driving. Fully autonomous. Requiring no human input.

Now he was saying they were close by the end of 2020, and Elon is known to underestimate the time it takes to do things but... miles away? Nope.
Once the bans on ICE cars come in from 2030 onwards, I think we will see "normal" cars disappearing quite quickly. Plus if it becomes cheaper to summon an autonomous car than to pay for your own car, car ownership will fall dramatically. It becomes a luxury for those who really want it.

Yes and No.
In sizable cities summoning a car, self driving or taxi, is and will be quite quick.
In rural areas and smaller towns, forget it. If you live 20 miles from a big city and want to go shopping, the bus will be faster than summoning a ride. Faster yet will be to continue to own car.

 

[Archie_tect]

When the sensors on my car get dirty, obscured by snow or too wet in heavy rain, they stop working so that the adaptive cruise control, parking assist and the emergency braking functions don't work. I can see many self drive issues with poorly maintained cars just stopping wherever they happen to be on default safe mode.

Best laid plans...

 

[byegad]

Cycling infra is a total red herring. We've a nationwide system of roads, perfectly good enough for cycling. The problem is that we are obliged to share it with drivers of motor vehicles. The answer, in my view, is not to marginalise cyclists into their own (incomplete, poorly designed, poorly maintained) ghetto of cycling facilities, it's to exclude or restrict motor vehicles. Slow em down, introduce presumed liability, firmly enforce existing laws and, when the opportunity arises, redesign roads and junctions to prioritise the safe passage of peds and pedallers. If we wait for a parallel cycling network which covers the whole county we'll be waiting forever. Literally forever.

Here in County Durham the money so far spent on 'cycling farcilities' is largely wasted, merely serving to allow drivers to baulk at cyclists ignoring the cycle path, which is strewn with debris and festooned with terrible Give Ways at every private drive and constantly diverting cyclist over main roads at random for no good reason.
Quite how we educate drivers to see us as part of the traffic, given how they don't see themselves in that light, I don't know.

 

[HMS_Dave]

When the sensors on my car get dirty or wet they stop working so that the adaptive cruise control, parking assist and the emergency braking functions don't work. I can see many self drive issues with poorly maintained cars just stopping wherever they happen to be on default safe mode.

In terms of car maintenance things are going to be a lot more expensive in the future. A lot of these systems are going to be locked with propriety copyrighted software which only the main stealers will have access to. Any local garage will likely dwindle down as the years go by turning into tyre fitters if they're lucky and maybe MOT test stations...