How predictable are grand tours

[Dogtrousers]

This popped up on PCS yesterday and I thought it was interesting.

I'm not sure where the figures come from, I presume it's from a "pick the winner" comp on PCS.

I suspect the numbers reflect a fantasy cycling approach where being named in a team counts as being picked. But if that's the case ... poor old Tao. Absolutely nobody at all picked him in their 2020 Giro team, not even by mistake.

This would mean the numbers aren't as dramatic s they appear. A score of, say 76% for Jonas for the 2022 tour doesn't mean that 76% of people predicted he would win (that would have been very odd seeing as Pog had just won two on the bounce). I think it just means 76% had him in their team, which is less interesting.

Anyway the 2016-2025 averages are: Vuelta - 76.3%, Tour - 80.3%, Giro 48.7% That makes the Giro the least predictable, which makes sense.

 

[Pblakeney]

They are very predictable.




When the favourite wins.

 

[Sharky]

I think statistically, the rider most likely to win, is the ridder that won it the previous year.

 

[mididoctors]

This popped up on PCS yesterday and I thought it was interesting.

View attachment 814044
I'm not sure where the figures come from, I presume it's from a "pick the winner" comp on PCS.

I suspect the numbers reflect a fantasy cycling approach where being named in a team counts as being picked. But if that's the case ... poor old Tao. Absolutely nobody at all picked him in their 2020 Giro team, not even by mistake.

This would mean the numbers aren't as dramatic s they appear. A score of, say 76% for Jonas for the 2022 tour doesn't mean that 76% of people predicted he would win (that would have been very odd seeing as Pog had just won two on the bounce). I think it just means 76% had him in their team, which is less interesting.

Anyway the 2016-2025 averages are: Vuelta - 76.3%, Tour - 80.3%, Giro 48.7% That makes the Giro the least predictable, which makes sense.

Well apparently one in four GTs is a surprise

 

[Dogtrousers]

Well apparently one in four GTs is a surprise

And just under three quarters of the surprises are Giros
And about half of the Giros are a surprise.

 

[Dogtrousers]

I think statistically, the rider most likely to win, is the ridder that won it the previous year.

In its entire history this has happened on 24% of the editions*. Since 2010 it has been 31% of the editions

*28% if you include the "no winner" years 1999-2005

So it happens roughly a third of the time.

 

[mididoctors]

Numbers don't lie