Pro cyclists wearing helmets

[tigger]

So you do accept that it doesn't really tell us anything about helmets relationship with death rates in pro cycling?

Thank god I can stop doing that list!

When I originally posted it was triggered by the comment about pro-cyclists and safety and my wondering what evidence there was. What came out completely surprised me both as to the size and suddenness of the change and despite the low numbers the very significant statistical difference.

I posted it originally as an interesting observation in response to the comment because it is. There are lots of caveats such as we don't (or I don't) know the actual helmet wearing rates by year other than there was a riders strike over being made to wear them in 1991 and pivotal changes from the high profile Kivilev and Casartelli deaths in 2003 and 1995 that kind of lined up with the change in slope.

We also don't know the total race miles ridden, the numbers of riders, the numbers of races etc over that period but one would expect them to grow slowly rather than a sudden change. Regardless I think it is an interesting enough observation to trigger questions about what has caused the big rise in the competition death rate over the past decade and is there any association with helmets.

The data itself was collated from a number of sources, not just Wikipedia which for example has missed two deaths in 2004 from heart attacks in competition (interestingly more riders died from heart attacks in and out of competition in 2003/4 than from head injuries in the decade). Only those directly related to racing incidents were retained so e.g. heart attacks were removed. Crash deaths not involving head injuries were not removed on the basis that it was racing safety that was in question. That could be affected by exacerbated injuries or riding behavioural changes (rider faster, taking more risks etc). Restricting it to just head injuries drops the rates but still retains a significant difference between the two periods.

As is often the case in science, it starts with an interesting observation which people then work to explain. I know it has already triggered others with better access to other data sets, to start investigating in more detail both to confirm whether these preliminary indications are right, and if so what it the cause. It may all peter out or it may lead ultimately to changes that could save riders lives.

HTH

 

[Red Light]

They don't already?

No far more! I've tried offering them homeopathic money - a solution of money so dilute there is none of the original money left in it - but they didn't seem impressed.

 

[Red Light]

So you do accept that it doesn't really tell us anything about helmets relationship with death rates in pro cycling?

It gives us the interesting observation that in the last decade (when helmets have been widely worn/mandatory) the death rate has been triple what it was before but I made no claims of causality. That is an interpretation you have brought to the table from the very first asking in this thread. All I said when I posted it originally, and I have never claimed otherwise including here, is:

" Post Casartelli's death in the 1995 TdeF when helmets really started to gain a foothold in professional racing leading to their mandation by UCI in 2003, the death rate of professional cyclists in competition has tripled. Make of that what you will."

So it remains an interesting observation of some concern that warrants further investigation. If just one life can be saved etc.

 

[Red Light]

Ha ha... its a fair point. I was rather hoping Red Light would have put some sanity check in place before posting. I'm nearly done on the checking front, not sure I can be arsed to finish because as stated it proves nothing other than its worthless - takes twice as long with one hand too.

Its been quite amusing watching you go at it like a terrier at a bone trying to demolish an argument that was a figment of your own imagination with david k on the sidelines egging you on.


But there is an interesting question still to be answered of why has professional racing seemingly become 3 times more dangerous in the past decade. Others with better access to data are starting to look into it now with a view to publishing the conclusions in due course.

 

[tigger]

But there is an interesting question still to be answered of why has professional racing seemingly become 3 times more dangerous in the past decade. Others with better access to data are starting to look into it now with a view to publishing the conclusions in due course.

Yeah I wondered the same thing, will be be interesting to see if their are any valid findings. Same with the 1900s and 1910s.

 

[tigger]

" Post Casartelli's death in the 1995 TdeF when helmets really started to gain a foothold in professional racing leading to their mandation by UCI in 2003, the death rate of professional cyclists in competition has tripled. Make of that what you will."

Yeah, but I think we both know, given your position, what you really meant by "make of that what you will".

 

[tigger]

Anyway... thoroughly bored of all this now. I'm happy with my choices, if people differ, then I'm happy for them too.

 

[Red Light]

Anyway... thoroughly bored of all this now.

Bet you're not really and before we know it the little tigger terrier will be back worrying away at the bone again.

 

[Rebel Ian]

Sorry - I just asked a question but seem to have started another argument! I was merely interested in the analysis because on another forum someone trotted out the argument about pro riders wearing them so that's a compelling argument for everyone doing so which, we all know, is nonsense. As you were!!

 

[Red Light]

Yeah, but I think we both know, given your position, what you really meant by "make of that what you will".

MOTWYW?

 

[ufkacbln]

The EPO risk is even more tenuous!

in 2007 Ashcroft, Angus and Draper pointed out that the links were poorly substantiated, but also that EPO in fact no greater risk than high intensity training or hypoxic training.

 

[lukesdad]

Of course race miles per rider have been taken into account increase in riders and races and the rewards to do well. Just asking ?

 

[lukesdad]

What happened in the fifties ? A helmet experiment ?