Property prices - what’s happening and predictions?

[Proto]

So, what’s happening in your area and what are your predictions on prices?

Wife and I have sold our house in Oxfordshire and we’re currently renting in Somerset whilst we plan the next phase of our lives (both retired, children left home, parents gone). Sitting on a fair pile of cash we’re glued to Right Move, checking out anything and everything. We’ve only seen one house we really liked, fabulous, but regrettably too far out of the village and too much road noise.

Seems to me that Brexit is messing things up, little coming on the market and few buyers, or it could be that other factors are at play, who knows. My feeling is that around here in Frome, prices are stagnating at best and are starting to slide down. Being selfish, I hope this accelerates!

So, what’s happening in your area? Further, what do you think will happen, Brexit deal or no deal, or Article 50 revoked, and post General Election?

 

[Joffey]

As Brexit won't be sorted for the next 5 years I would say the days of boom are postponed for a while. But in North Yorkshire houses still seem to be selling but maybe not as fast as they used to.

The houses up here seem to be priced unrealistically so I can only presume the odd buyer doesn't care about the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and paying over the odds or owners are accepting offers below the asking price.

Oh, and what do I think will happen? I think the economy will slow even further along with the housing market. Any Brexit outcome allegedly will damage the economy so if this comes to fruition it is bound to have a knock on effect. But my advise would be don't worry about Brexit or the market, just buy the house when you see the one you love. You'll be gutted if you miss out over a couple of grand.

 

[Chris S]

I bought a flat in 2006 because the property market was supposed to stay flat for the next ten years. It crashed 2 years later. Just ignore predictions, if I had then I'd be £20,000 better off.

 

[OldShep]

The last three houses sold in my village SW Scotland have sold incredibly fast. The first two within weeks and the last one sold within 3 days and never even hit the internet. The local estate agent appears to have a book full of purchasers looking for a property here.
The incoming removal Lorry for the last sold came from Bournemouth. I sincerely hope they will embrace Scotland and not bring any Gammon with them.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

I bought a flat in 2006 because the property market was supposed to stay flat for the next ten years. It crashed 2 years later. Just ignore predictions, if I had then I'd be £20,000 better off.

But you are only £20K better off if you check out of the system, whilst ever you are bound in then it doesn't matter, but here in North Notts, the market is flat, house prices are still 20% lower than they were 10 years ago, despite the Estate Agents best efforts to push up prices it doesn't work. But there does appear to be a bizarre trend for people to buy new tiny houses with no garden as opposed to older well built houses with space between them.

 

[vickster]

London / SE market depressed and lack of stock but prices still fairly stupid

Kind of depends where/what you want to buy as ever

 

[Proto]

London / SE market depressed and lack of stock but prices still fairly stupid

Which is having a knock on effect in all southern areas, I think. The flow of London hipsters selling a shed in Battersea for £2m and buying up further out has dried up. All the agents we spoke to in Bucks/Oxon area said the same.

 

[Cletus Van Damme]

Having recently bought a house, I found that there was hardly any choice compared to when I was looking in spring last year. I actually got a bargain, for a decent 6 year old house. When I was looking in spring last year, I'd just end up in a bidding war, pulling out when the price got stupid. Anything decent was going to cost you. I still look at houses daily through habit, as I've been looking for so long. Recently I've noticed that is still little choice, due to uncertainty, but surprisingly prices seems to have been hiked-up quite a lot. I haven't a clue why, maybe due to the lack of properties, but I thought it would've went the other way to be honest. I live near Carlisle, Cumbria.

 

[Chris S]

But you are only £20K better off if you check out of the system, whilst ever you are bound in then it doesn't matter, but here in North Notts, the market is flat, house prices are still 20% lower than they were 10 years ago, despite the Estate Agents best efforts to push up prices it doesn't work. But there does appear to be a bizarre trend for people to buy new tiny houses with no garden as opposed to older well built houses with space between them.

I would have been £20,000 better off if I hadn't bought the flat. That's the total of all the money that I lost when I sold it. I didn't buy another property, I moved in with an elderly relative to look after them.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

I would have been £20,000 better off if I hadn't bought the flat. That's the total of all the money that I lost when I sold it. I didn't buy another property, I moved in with an elderly relative to look after them.

Sorry you checked out, so it is applicable, most people seem to state that when house prices move, our house was valued at £180K at one point, we may get £160K now, some people would say they have lost £20K

 

[swee'pea99]

Everyone knows the market is long overdue for a 'correction'. It's been kept at fever pitch for a couple of decades by the influx of global wealth, encouraged by a tax haven type tax regime. Brexit has brought that to a shuddering halt. The ripples have already started spreading down into the 'normal' London market (friends of ours who sold and bought recently were gazundered by the buyers post-agreement, and gazundered their sellers in their turn), and as a rule, what happens to London tends in time to start happening elsewhere in the country. The market is stagnant rather than sliding right now - people are hanging on, because they don't want to sell for less than their property 'is worth'...but the only real questions are, how soon, how fast, how far...

Japan presents a cautionary tale about what happens when speculation takes precedence over real incomes in determining property prices:

On the traditional metric of one-third of income for your housing costs, anyone buying a family house in a perfectly 'normal, nothing special' bit of north London today would need a post-tax income somewhere north of £12,000 a month. Yes, you read that right. A month. After tax. Something's got to give...

 

[Pale Rider]

we’re glued to Right Move, checking out anything and everything.

You are drowning in a sea of choices and what might loosely be called information.

Sitting outside property ownership on a pile of cash is a risky business.

Your capital is decreasing in value - unless you are an investment genius - and you are lobbing out cash on monthly rent, which will add up.

All of which is fine if you fancy a bit of property speculation and see it as a hobby to fill your retired time.

But if you want somewhere to live long term, stop trying to out think the market and buy a house.

 

[youngoldbloke]

Definitely seems to be a lull in the market. Fewer properties coming on the market in the area we are looking at, and lots unsold. Still some crazy prices being asked, presumably sellers making a punt for as much as they can get, and occasionally it pays off.

 

[Drago]

Dunno. I can guess that the inexorable rise unsustainable - when an item becomes so expensive that not enough people dan afford to guy them, then the value of that item collapses. Because of constant market tinkering by builders, speculators, foreign investors and even our own government, the waters are well and truly muddied and it's impossible to predict when the collapse will happen, but it will.

 

[PK99]

D1's flat in Balham SW17 went live on line last Saturday. By monday morning 2 viewings were booked.

Asking price 21% up on price paid 4 years ago