The time gaps tonight are as follows:
Contador - 2'26" - A Schleck - 0'59" - F Schleck - 0'30" - Armstrong - 0'49" - Kloden - 0'09" - Wiggins - 0'16" - Nibali
The key figures are that Wiggins is 2'27" off Andy and 1'29" off Armstrong.
Note that I've left Franck out of the equation - he is the worst time triallist of the top 7...remember that Sastre caught him for 3 minutes last year, and he finished 1'18" below Contador in Monaco on a short hilly course. Speaking of last year, only 3 of the top 7 competed last year in the 53km TT - Andy was 4' down on dopehead Schumacher, then Nibali and Franck were both about 5'30" down.
Annecy is obviously a lot longer and favours flat time triallists like Wiggins even though there is a bump at 25km. This works against both Schlecks straight away. If Wiggo has recovered nicely, he might come out on top of the 7, but almost certainly 2nd to Cancellara.
I've done some basic (and obviously flawed) calculations by multiplying the Monaco time gaps off Contador by 2.5 (essentially going from a 10 mile TT to a 25). The GC would then look like this: Contador, Andy, Armstrong, Kloden, Wiggins, Nibali, Franck (with just 6 seconds between Armstrong and Wiggins).
The problem is that with Armstrong effectively unproven at the longer Tour TTs for a few years, we don't know how he will fare. On the other hand, Kloden is a strong time triallist who finished 3rd on St13 in the 2007 tour...ahead of Wiggins.
In reality I think it is far too close to call for 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the end of tomorrow. To use a Liggett-ism, you'll be able to throw a blanket over Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins. My guess is that whatever happens, Wiggins will be at least a minute up on the Schlecks...we'll have to wait until Ventoux to see if that is enough.
