Stage 18 - spoiler

[Keith Oates]

The high mountains are over but there a three nasty lumps in todays stage which could upset some riders. CSC will have to be in control so that none of the GC contenders look like getting away. Day for a break to stay away I suppose, we shall see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[mondobongo]

Yes I fancy a breakaway with no GC contenders in being allowed to go and stay away.

 

[yello]

Menchov to disguise himself as the tooth fairy and attempt to sneak away in a breakaway.

Today could be dull.

 

[Dave Davenport]

Millar in a break?

 

[kennykool]

Yeah Miller has to go for a stage victory doesn't he!

Today could well be a very dull stage tho I agree. Sastre and Evans will be getting focussed on the TT on Sat so don't think they'll risk a break away. CSC will protect Sastre all the way today and chase down any breakaways from anyone withing touching distance of Sastre.

 

[Keith Oates]

Maybe he'll try to save himself for the TT because like many he must have suffered on the climbs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Flying_Monkey]

Millar will not break away, it's too hilly for him and he will be knackered. This stage will seem harder than it is because of the post-Alps tiredness, and we may not have seen the last of attempts by CSC to break Evans...

 

[kennykool]

Yeah good point Flying monkey. Still cant get over how good CSC were yesterday - the Schleck brothers forced Evans into setting the pace up Alp d'huez - he must be shattered.

Would CSC try and get Sastre further ahead of Evans? I must admit the Silence-Lotto team have been disapointing in my eyes - Evans seems to be on his own far too often!

 

[Keith Oates]

Interesting thoughts FM, especially as Evans doesn't seem to have much of team around him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[yello]

we may not have seen the last of attempts by CSC to break Evans...

I'd like to think so. From CSC's perspective, they'd prefer Schleck and/or Sastre to put a bit of time on Evans; seconds will be important. As things stand, Evans looks like the favourite for yellow in Paris.

There'll be some tired riders today AND they'll be wanting to conserve energy. But what do you think to a sacrificial lamb? CSC to send Sastre or Schleck up the road just to see what Evans does. Can't see either rider liking that plan though! Unless it pays off of course...

 

[Flying_Monkey]

CSC have got to do something - neither Schleck nor Sastre has enough time on Evans at the moment. The problem is that they also both have to keep enough energy to do the best TTs they have ever done... CSC can of course use its other team members, and sacrificing other team members may well be on the cards. If I was Evans I would be looking for another team BTW - keenykool is right about the support he has(n't) got.

 

[Tetedelacourse]

There is some potential with today's stage to do that, if CSC can put in a shift again like yesterday, although I'm not sure they'll have enough left in the tank.

50km from end of stage, a 2nd cat. Then a 4th cat 15km from the end. If (and I don't really believe this) Evans is gubbed, then CSC should zip up the 2nd cat and get the train on and fling Sastre and the Schlecks up the 4th cat and close out the stage. Easy!

But Evans has already shown in the Pyrenees he recovers really well and that is the key to success in the tdf, IMO.

I am not sure whether Evans will make the time back in the TT though. Remember Rasmussen's terrible TT one year and then his good one when he was in yellow? I suspect Sastre will perform better in the TT than he usually does, given what's at stake. Brilliant climax this year though!

 

[Chris James]

I am not sure whether Evans will make the time back in the TT though. Remember Rasmussen's terrible TT one year and then his good one when he was in yellow?!

Wasn't Rasmussen's TT just prior to him getting kicked out for 'lying to his team' (lovely euphemism!)

I agree that Sastre should be up for a good TT. Having said that Evans knows that (unless things change before Saturday) it is largely in his own hands and he seems more up for winning the Tour than any of the other contenders in my view.

 

[yello]

So much for being tired and taking it easy; the peleton has just covered 55km in the first hour...they're ripping each other's legs off! Expect casualties on the clmbs!!

 

[Keith Oates]

Looks like it's over and out fo Cunego, the crash has really upset him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!