Personally I simply hadn't seen it yet.
The person that spoke to you over the phone more likely than not wasn't a police officer, though that doesn't matter as it's whatever they say that makes you forum an opinion of how we are treating it.
I'll echo what most others have said. You say you are 99% sure. That's an interesting number, as it should certainly equate to the amount of proof needed to convict at court, if a jury member was 99% sure.
However, the evidence you later gave is definitely not enough to convict - a name ordered a charger for a rare bike, Facebook shows a name the same as that living nearby. It starts with a circumstantial link, and then gets a second area of doubt. This alone isn't enough for court.
As others have said, it IS enough to knock the door... But what will that alone gain. Will it simply let him know we are on to him and actually give him opportunity to dispose of items.
Is it enough to get a warrant... That's down to the mags or the JP on the day. Actually, I think it is. I got one in very similar circs once, so personally I'd give that a go.
CCTV is a big one. If it's good enough, I'd do the warrant, knock the door, and arrest him if it was him, and subsequently search. My concerns would be what if son/partner opened the door? No arrest, no search, gives him a head up to get rid of the bike.
A few different ways that they can play it, none of which is going to happen until you've had a visit (which I see you've now had).
The usual excuse - no, I hate that word, the usual REASON why - police numbers have been slashed and unless you are in physical danger your job probably sits on the list as "next available unit" for over 24 hours as other higher priority jobs keep taking precedence.
The job I mentioned above, someone reported a stolen camera lens to me. They had found it on
eBay, linked the seller to Facebook, found an address. The same day, I tried for and got a warrant, went round to the house, searched it, found the camera, dealt with the offenders and put the matter to bed.
It took four of us all day on that one job. We wouldn't be allowed to do that any more, they couldn't justify losing four response officers for that long. Modern world of policing.