400+ is definitely a good score - would be the third highest run chase in last innings if the Aussies achieve it!
If the England pace bowlers bowl like they did yesterday morning you can expect the Aussies to lose a couple of early wickets but I wouldn't expect a complete capitulation by the Aussie top order - or for that matter the Aussie middle lower order - wickets will fall throughout the day but the spinner Moeen is going to have to do a lot of work
the pitch has some variable bounce and is taking turn but is it deteriorating?
Graham Swann
Nathan Lyon bowled well for his four wickets yesterday and was able to exert a degree of control in the face of positive England batting - I admired Moeen in the Aussie first innings for his mental fortitude in the face of an assault by Smith and Clarke on his bowling and his will to keep on doing what he was doing and get their wickets - I dont think the Aussies will be so gung ho against him this time - so I think this is a real test for Moeen - England will need him to come to the party to support the pace bowlers
All things being equal and nothing the same England should win easily either tonite or early tomorrow - but I suspect it may be a bit more nervy than the press and pundits are proclaiming - hope I'm wrong
Broad cooking on gas
