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User482
Guest
That might be because they approach the tie with an unreasonable sense of entitlement while the team that gets into the last play off berth have a greater freedom to play.
I think it's more to do with which team has the form for the last few games of the season. Often, the team scraping into the play-offs is on a roll, and as you say, will feel that they have nothing to lose. I remember West Ham being in that situation in 2005 - we were utter crap for all but the last 10 games of the season, finished 6th, and won the play-offs.