The Met Office

[youngoldbloke]

Amazes me how different the BBC and Met Office forecasts can be given that they are (I assume?) starting with the same data. I look at them but more than 12 hours ahead you can't really rely on either. Pre ride I look out of the window (recommended ) and then at RainToday? which shows you what is/has been actually happening. Only forecasts 3 hours ahead unfortunately. The other site that I find very useful is Wind Observation Map at XC weather.

 

[Beebo]

Whatever you do, dont use the Daily Express for your weather forecasting requirements.
They promised 3 months of below zero temps back in November!

 

[Biker Joe]

As far as I know,and I may be totally wrong with this,weather forecasting today is based on computer models which are based on weather patterns in the past. They then look at what the weather did in these past models and assume the weather will follow similar trends.
Now the Jet Stream has taken on a totally new position for which there are no previous records. That means the meteorologists have no records of what the weather does in this situation and they have to take an educated guess as to what will happen next.
I wish I had a job where I get paid to guess and still get paid if I get it wrong.
Oh, I know, I'll become a meteorologist.

 

[totallyfixed]

Daytime forecast as of this morning for the weekend here was dry on both days, so that is 2 & 3 days ahead, I await with interest. Maybe I will keep a little diary for the month of Feb checking their 3 & 4 day forecasts against actual then look at how many percent accurate they were. Anyone else as ocd as me want to give it a go for their area?

 

[Biker Joe]

As far as I know, and I may be totally wrong in this, weather forecasting today is based on computer models which, in turn, are based upon similar weather patterns of the past. They look at what the weather did then and assume the weather will progress in a similar way now.
Now, the Jet Stream has changed it's position radically for which there are no previous models to fall back on so the meteorologists have to resort to making an educated guess as to what will happen now and they often get it wrong.
I wish I had a job where I get paid for making a guess and still get paid if I get it wrong.
I know................I'll become a meteorologist

 

[robjh]

Whatever you do, dont use the Daily Express for your weather forecasting requirements.
They promised 3 months of below zero temps back in November!

The Express has rather an obsession with wildy exaggerated weather predictions on its front page. According to this blog they appeared on its front page 69 times in 2013. They fill up the space when the editors run out of Princess Diana ideas.

 

[Rob3rt]

As far as I know,and I may be totally wrong with this,weather forecasting today is based on computer models which are based on weather patterns in the past. They then look at what the weather did in these past models and assume the weather will follow similar trends.
Now the Jet Stream has taken on a totally new position for which there are no previous records. That means the meteorologists have no records of what the weather does in this situation and they have to take an educated guess as to what will happen next.
I wish I had a job where I get paid to guess and still get paid if I get it wrong.
Oh, I know, I'll become a meteorologist.

You are correct in that weather forecasting is based on computer models (which may or may not have been fitted to or based on past weather data empirically) but the rest is not quite correct. In basic terms what happens is an ensemble of predictions for a time step are made using a complex multi physics model, then these predictions are compared with weather data when it becomes available, the mismatch between the prediction and the reality is then used to correct the parameters in the model and the next time step is predicted. Of course it is a lot more mathematical than it sounds written like this

 

[potsy]

Maybe I will keep a little diary for the month of Feb checking their 3 & 4 day forecasts against actual then look at how many percent accurate they were. Anyone else as ocd as me want to give it a go for their area?

I think somebody needs to get out more

 

[totallyfixed]

I think somebody needs to get out more

You are so right....................for once

 

[twentysix by twentyfive]

I think somebody needs to get out more

@totallyfixed can't - the weather forecast isn't accurate enough

 

[asterix]

As far as I know,and I may be totally wrong with this,weather forecasting today is based on computer models which are based on weather patterns in the past. They then look at what the weather did in these past models and assume the weather will follow similar trends.
Now the Jet Stream has taken on a totally new position for which there are no previous records. That means the meteorologists have no records of what the weather does in this situation and they have to take an educated guess as to what will happen next.
I wish I had a job where I get paid to guess and still get paid if I get it wrong.
Oh, I know, I'll become a meteorologist.

It's very feasible, up to a point. The world of computer modelling may well take its lead from the methodology of economic forecasting (after all these programmes will be hugely expensive, just tailor someone else's). Economic forecasting is highly dependent on historical data and very bad at allowing for the possibility of something unprecedented happening. Educated guessing is no longer a significant part of the forecasting process - why pay people to 'guess' when you have an expensive computer?