The Met Office

[totallyfixed]

I'm starting to think they are employing spin doctors now. Less than 48 hours ago Thursday was forecast to be the only dry day of the week [coldest with easterly winds] so I organised my work accordingly [I work outside mostly]. I had to ring up this morning and cancel. Last night after the news at ten the Beeb said it would be wet most of the day in the East Midlands, a complete about face in just 24 hours. This morning, as I write it is snowing heavily
As for the spin, a couple of weeks ago there was a programme on the Met Office and they said that their 4 day forecast is now more accurate than the 1 day was 20 years ago

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[asterix]

As for the spin, a couple of weeks ago there was a programme on the Met Office and they said that their 4 day forecast is now more accurate than the 1 day was 20 years ago .

Yes but the one day they are comparing it to is this one:

[/quote]

 

[HLaB]

I never trust them more than 6 hours in advance and its supposed to be more accurate than 20 years ago

 

[totallyfixed]

It's funny, I tend to like / trust some of the Beeb presenters more than others and somehow think they will give a more accurate forecast. Yes I know, sigh.

 

[ASC1951]

I never trust them more than 6 hours in advance and its supposed to be more accurate than 20 years ago

I think the Met Office's data is more accurate, but a) that doesn't mean the Beeb's interpretation is, and b) there is always a probability range one you get down as small as 30 miles round your house.

 

[Beebo]

All BBC weather forecasters and presenters are employed by the Met office, so they are one and the same.

 

[byegad]

...edit... As for the spin, a couple of weeks ago there was a programme on the Met Office and they said that their 4 day forecast is now more accurate than the 1 day was 20 years ago

.

I saw that and thought {Polite version.} rubbish.

I used to use the three hour forcast to predict when to ride to work, it was 16 miles each way and I didn't mind getting soaked on the way home, but not on the way to work. I've seen me cycle into work in the dry, it rain heavily most of the day and then ride home in the dry again, all accurately predicted on the three hour Met' Office forecast. Now they seem incapable of that kind of precision. The other day the Weather man on BBC TV told me it was raining hard in my area and we had a lovely cloudless day! Best of the year so far for riding.

 

[Rickshaw Phil]

On a good day they are very good, but it's sometimes easy to forget that the models the forecasts are based on are still only simulations and the actual weather can throw in a surprise from time to time.

What I don't like is when a forecast is wrong and they change their website retrospectively to make it look as though they got it right. Last saturday was a good example: I set off for my ride having checked the forecast, seen moderate showers expected about lunch time and planned to try and get back before they got here. I was not expecting the torrential thunderstorm that we actually got and which was showing on their website after the event as though it had been there all along.

Fair enough if it had been an isolated shower that popped up out of nowhere, but this was a squall line about 500 miles long - how did they not see that coming?

 

[fossyant]

Rain radar is quite good - you can see the rain rolling in. You are knackered though if they move faster than you were expecting !

Rain radar says rain (snow) in Linconshire

 

[totallyfixed]

Their terminology has changed too, all the grey terms have largely been chucked out like "probably, possibly, likely" etc, to things you hear more often from politicians, "certainly, without doubt, will, will not, going to".

 

[totallyfixed]

Rain radar is quite good - you can see the rain rolling in. You are knackered though if they move faster than you were expecting !

Rain radar says rain (snow) in Linconshire

And we are on average over 100 m higher than Lincolnshire [here it is currently alternating between sleet and snow, temp 1.4C]. What it doesn't seem to show on the radar is drizzle plus the forecast ahead is a bit dodgy, but yes we refer to that too.

 

[fossyant]

I've generally given up on the forecast. Just check the weather (look up) as I get the bike out now ! It's been saying cold snap/ice etc for days, rolling forecast, but we've had nothing. today has, however, been our only dry day for a while.

 

[snorri]

I don't place any faith in television weather forecasts, they give a very general overview, nothing more is possible in the brief time slot they are allotted.

 

[BSRU]

I watched a programme last year where a meteorologist from the Met office stated it was impossible to predict the UK's weather more than a few hours ahead as it was far too complicated even for it's super computer.

 

[summerdays]

I think they do a good job .... If you don't like them then go read the Express weather forecast ...it predicted an incredibly snowy December! It's dry here today and I'm hoping they have got the timings right for tomorrow as I'm outside first thing in the morning so want it to be dry then. I'll still check tomorrow in case the timings change. I guess it comes down to how precise you are expecting them to be.