Hm. If the mudguard is tightening onto rubber with no solid spacer in, it will not tighten well, and wiggle to boot. Consider locking wire, or a split pin, or locknut (as in extra nut) if there's room.
I've just had a halfords £5 water bottle cage snap clean off ... it did have a 1 litre water bottle in it at the time, although the 30mph side wind might have been the real cause.
(Had to fish the water bottle out of a dyke after it blew across the road).
Found a new one, my fibreglass flag pole rattling in it's holder, so had to apply a layer of insulation tape to make it a more snug fit and some cable ties to my bottle cage............
Had a funny mis-shift today on my commute to work whilst shifting from 5th to 4th gear, real nasty slip and now some crunchy noises..... So investigation needed but it's too hot at 32C.....
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