Tour de France 2025

[phreak]

What's the point in Hugh Carthy? He seems to be fairly mediocre on GC (third at Vuelta and a couple of Giro top tens a few years back), but doesn't have a list of stage wins to suggest he could be a hunter and his one day record is terrible, he races as infrequently as Vingegaard, apart for some reason San Sebastian, which he keeps coming back to - maybe to celebrate his (checks notes) 14th place. He's 30 years old and unless he's a fantastic mountain domestique and I've missed it, there are younger riders that are cheaper and with more potential that keep coming through

Sorry Hugh if you're reading this, I'd love to see you do well and score a new contract, but I don't quite see what you'd be aiming for.

You could say that about a lot of riders. James Knox, for instance, looked like he'd perhaps push on after getting a couple of top 10s in GTs, but largely hasn't, so is now a fairly average climbing domestique for Remco.

 

[phreak]

Light on rouleurs, no? Not sure they're going to be able to control the break, so Visma could make things difficult for them by getting van Aert away (see the Giro this year)

I can't help but think that that stage is being over-egged a bit. It only really worked because Yates was able to get a good gap on two riders who largely neutralised one another. It's hard to see Pogacar being in the same position.

 

[kingrollo]

Oscar onley was very impressive in tour de Suise ....wonder if he can nab a stage ....odds against but would be great to see.

 

[TakeTheHighRoad]

You could say that about a lot of riders. James Knox, for instance, looked like he'd perhaps push on after getting a couple of top 10s in GTs, but largely hasn't, so is now a fairly average climbing domestique for Remco.

I think that's a bit harsh on Knox. I think he realised early on he was never going to get to the podium of a GT (I think it was Vuelta 2019 he got closest, but lost out badly in a crash very late on) and with the advent of Remco he's found himself a solid gig as a key domestique

 

[wakemalcolm]

I think that's a bit harsh on Knox. I think he realised early on he was never going to get to the podium of a GT (I think it was Vuelta 2019 he got closest, but lost out badly in a crash very late on) and with the advent of Remco he's found himself a solid gig as a key domestique

Agree, he found himself in the top 10 late on when DQS didn't have much else going on GC wise and was supported to maintain that.

Some unknown Slovenian kid kept on winning stages and Knox slipped down to 11th.

He seems to be a bit of a Cameron Wurf type character who's always out of contract yet turns up the next year.

Can't see him supporting Remco in the tour any time soon but he's a likeable and engaging character and that probably goes a long way at his level.

 

[No Ta Doctor]

I can't help but think that that stage is being over-egged a bit. It only really worked because Yates was able to get a good gap on two riders who largely neutralised one another. It's hard to see Pogacar being in the same position.

Oh I don't think they'll have a similar situation - but van Aert ahead can be used in other ways too - like his pull on Hautacam for Vingegaard. The point was more that Visma shouldn't have too much trouble causing trouble.

 

[No Ta Doctor]

I understand the Danish based bias, but I don't understand the shade on the UAE that won the Tour last year, with 7 of the 8 riders returning, and one like for like (at least) replacement

It's not bias in any way to suggest that Visma's team is better balanced than UAE's is. If Politt crashes out in the first week, who's going to do the work when it's flat? Which of all those climbers is going to control the break?

That obviously doesn't mean Visma are favourites, UAE are extremely strong in the mountains, and Pog is Pog, he might not even need a team other than a water carrier.

 

[Dorset Boy]

It's not bias in any way to suggest that Visma's team is better balanced than UAE's is. If Politt crashes out in the first week, who's going to do the work when it's flat? Which of all those climbers is going to control the break?

That obviously doesn't mean Visma are favourites, UAE are extremely strong in the mountains, and Pog is Pog, he might not even need a team other than a water carrier.

Pogi would just ask his buddy, MvdP to help out!

 

[phreak]

Oh I don't think they'll have a similar situation - but van Aert ahead can be used in other ways too - like his pull on Hautacam for Vingegaard. The point was more that Visma shouldn't have too much trouble causing trouble.

In the Dauphine, they had Kuss up the road at least once, and as soon as he was caught he was blown away with Pogacar and Vingegaard pretty much the only two that could keep the pace. Even Jorgenson being there wasn't much use once those two decided to go.

It's probably fair to say that Pogacar today is a different level to the Hautacam rider.

 

[Blazing Saddles]

I understand the Danish based bias, but I don't understand the shade on the UAE that won the Tour last year, with 7 of the 8 riders returning, and one like for like (at least) replacement

You say this, but the parcour this year is much more traditional, with a lot of flat and rolling terrain.
I know that I have missed a lot of racing recently, so excuse me if there’s a reason for Mikkel Berg’s omission, it baffles me.

 

[mjr]

That obviously doesn't mean Visma are favourites, UAE are extremely strong in the mountains, and Pog is Pog, he might not even need a team other than a water carrier.

Pog was collecting bottles and handing them out at the Dauphiné, so he seems not even to need that!

 

[TakeTheHighRoad]

It's not bias in any way to suggest that Visma's team is better balanced than UAE's is. If Politt crashes out in the first week, who's going to do the work when it's flat? Which of all those climbers is going to control the break?

That obviously doesn't mean Visma are favourites, UAE are extremely strong in the mountains, and Pog is Pog, he might not even need a team other than a water carrier.

Again, this is 7/8ths of the team that won the Tour last year, and I'm sure there will have been breaks to control then as well. Wellens and Narvaez are certainly strong rouleurs, but they can also climb.

The change from Ayuso to Narvaez would, if anything, make them MORE balanced by removing a climber with more of an "all rounder".

Also, IF Pollitt crashes out is a very strong caveat. As the old saying goes, IF my Aunt had .... she'd be my Uncle

 

[No Ta Doctor]

In the Dauphine, they had Kuss up the road at least once, and as soon as he was caught he was blown away with Pogacar and Vingegaard pretty much the only two that could keep the pace. Even Jorgenson being there wasn't much use once those two decided to go.

It's probably fair to say that Pogacar today is a different level to the Hautacam rider.

Oh he's far better now. So I guess everyone should just give up and not bother with it.

Or failing that, use the few tactics that are open to them, and hope he has a bad day. One of which would be to get van Aert up the road. Nobody's going to find a magic kryptonite tactic here.

Again, this is 7/8ths of the team that won the Tour last year, and I'm sure there will have been breaks to control then as well. Wellens and Narvaez are certainly strong rouleurs, but they can also climb.

The change from Ayuso to Narvaez would, if anything, make them MORE balanced by removing a climber with more of an "all rounder".

Also, IF Pollitt crashes out is a very strong caveat. As the old saying goes, IF my Aunt had .... she'd be my Uncle

Narvaez definitely makes them more balanced than last year. But I still think they're outmatched by Visma until they come to the mountains. And as I said above, it probably doesn't matter anyway, because they've got Pog. You could probably win the Tour with Arkea if you put pog on their team.

 

[misforturob]

Carapaz out due to illness

 

[T4tomo]

Oh he's far better now. So I guess everyone should just give up and not bother with it.

Or failing that, use the few tactics that are open to them, and hope he has a bad day. One of which would be to get van Aert up the road. Nobody's going to find a magic kryptonite tactic here.



Narvaez definitely makes them more balanced than last year. But I still think they're outmatched by Visma until they come to the mountains. And as I said above, it probably doesn't matter anyway, because they've got Pog. You could probably win the Tour with Arkea if you put pog on their team.

So they can chase breaks down better than UAE with Wout, VC and Affini. Good defensive tactics, but how does that help if UAE go on the attack in the mountains and no-one is strong enough to support JV?

The gaps on GC are created on mountain stages, I'd argue UAE are slightly stronger on climbing support.