Well i am thinking that despite zillions spent on technology,that weather forecasting is a waste of time.For the past two weeks i have been reading about the next heatwave,but every morning i find it has rained or it's windy and grey.This week was supposed to be good,but this morning a newspaper report says summer could be over.We might aswell just stand outside and decide ourselves,which is what i am going to do.But not today i am going to Manchester to move some furniture for our lad.Weather rant over.Frustrated postman logging off.
Weather forecasting bah.
- Thread starter postman
- Start date
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I like Skol
A Minging Manc...
- Location
- Sunny Ashton-under-Lyne
I suppose the better weather is a small compensation for having to live in the shite hole that is the South.....
Ian H
Ancient randonneur
Living just up the road from the Met Orifice, and counting several folk there as friends, I am aware of their frustration at how third parties interpret the data they're supplied.
The best example I have of the difficulty of forecasting accurately & in an understandable way is from one running of my Kernow 600. The 4th leg was a return from Penzance to Bude. Forecast said showers. Wind was Southwesterly. Most riders arrived at Bude dry, some got a bit damp along the way. One rider arrived drenched, having ridden under a rain cloud all the way.
The best example I have of the difficulty of forecasting accurately & in an understandable way is from one running of my Kernow 600. The 4th leg was a return from Penzance to Bude. Forecast said showers. Wind was Southwesterly. Most riders arrived at Bude dry, some got a bit damp along the way. One rider arrived drenched, having ridden under a rain cloud all the way.
I like Skol
A Minging Manc...
- Location
- Sunny Ashton-under-Lyne
You mean the data used here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcyg1pwdm#?date=2020-07-15 because I'm with @postman on this one.
D
Deleted member 1258
Guest
Last Thursday the forecast was for a dry but cloudy day, I had to abandon my ride before half way as it was piddling down, today the forecast was for dry and cloudy again, its been drizzling most of the morning and the washing I put out first thing is now wetter than it was when I put it out. At the moment I think the weather is too changeable for them to get an accurate forecast.
CanucksTraveller
Macho Business Donkey Wrestler
- Location
- Hertfordshire
Forecasting to any degree of accuracy only really works about two days out anyway... any more than that, (rubbish like "the summer is over" for example), and it's educated guesswork.
Ian has an excellent point on interpretation too. My Mrs is terrible for it, no matter how many times I explain forecasts to her, she will always point at mixed sun / heavy shower symbols for say, Saturday and Sunday and then say "It's going to rain hard all weekend".
I point out that going into the forecast, there is actually a 20% chance of heavy showers. In other words you have to be in the wrong place at the wrong time to get wet, and the highest likelihood is that you'll see sun all day. It never sinks in.
Ian has an excellent point on interpretation too. My Mrs is terrible for it, no matter how many times I explain forecasts to her, she will always point at mixed sun / heavy shower symbols for say, Saturday and Sunday and then say "It's going to rain hard all weekend".
I point out that going into the forecast, there is actually a 20% chance of heavy showers. In other words you have to be in the wrong place at the wrong time to get wet, and the highest likelihood is that you'll see sun all day. It never sinks in.
byegad
Legendary Member
- Location
- NE England
To me there are two problems.
1. If the forecaster lives in the South East of England, all you get in detail is the weather there. As they frequently have no idea where Scotland starts the North East of England frequently gets no forecast at all. See the BBC weather map on the text service. From Alnwick to Edinburgh there are never any symbols.
2. They're actually getting worse at predicting what will happen. In the late 1990s/early 2000s, a period of almost ten years I could look at the ITV or BBC service and tell if I was going to get wet on my commute to work, which was initially 12 miles each way, until I moved jobs, when it was 16. Now they try very hard and spectacularly fail
1. If the forecaster lives in the South East of England, all you get in detail is the weather there. As they frequently have no idea where Scotland starts the North East of England frequently gets no forecast at all. See the BBC weather map on the text service. From Alnwick to Edinburgh there are never any symbols.
2. They're actually getting worse at predicting what will happen. In the late 1990s/early 2000s, a period of almost ten years I could look at the ITV or BBC service and tell if I was going to get wet on my commute to work, which was initially 12 miles each way, until I moved jobs, when it was 16. Now they try very hard and spectacularly fail
gavroche
Getting old but not past it
- Location
- North Wales
Apparently the best forecast is to know how to interpret animals behaviour like: cows, sheep, frogs. They can sense local weather better than any satelites or scientists. The trouble is, I don't possess that knowledge.
Archie_tect
De Skieven Architek... aka Penfold + Horace
- Location
- Northumberland
What you need is a modern-day Bill Foggitt... [good name for a forecaster]:
"... One of the most respected amateur weather forecasters in Britain died after years of using moles, flies and seaweed to beat the Meteorological Office at its own game.
Bill Foggitt, who was 91 and the senior member of a Yorkshire pub discussion group nicknamed the Magic Circle, combined natural lore with an exceptional file of family records dating back to 1771 to make his forecasts.
A cloudburst which swept away part of the town of Yarm that year prompted his great-great-great-grandfather to start a diary which generations continued - partly, according to Mr Foggitt, "in the hope that we would eventually be able to predict catastrophes".
That duly happened with Mr Foggitt himself, to such an extent that, in the 1980s his report, Foggitt's Forecast, was appended to Yorkshire Television weather bulletins and treated with great respect. [I remember those...]
Drawing on the family archive and his own astute observation, Mr Foggitt took forecasting far beyond the boundaries of cold fronts and isobars.
The closing of pines cones almost always preceded wet weather, he deduced, and flies were likely to behave sluggishly before thunderstorms."
Brandane
Legendary Member
- Location
- Costa Clyde
I am, actually@Brandane on his summer hols?
. But not in Cornwall. I'm in Berkshire, where the weather is pretty average. So far my rain cloud has deserted me 
.Now for my rant about how weather forecasting has gone downhill with the demise of the British merchant navy. If I can find, then copy and paste my previous post.
Brandane
Legendary Member
- Location
- Costa Clyde
Found it....
My theory is that for all the satellites and modern computer generated forecasts, the accuracy has gone to pot BECAUSE......
When I was a boy (etc.. etc..) back in my Merchant Navy days in the late 70's; every British registered ship across the world, whilst at sea (rather than sitting in port) would send a detailed weather report (sent by morse code no less - ask your parents, children!) every 12 hours back to Portishead near Bristol. I remember having to report such details as wind speed/direction, cloud type and cover, rain intensity, air and sea temperature, sea state, size of swell, etc..
Then came the dismantling of the British Merchant Navy. If we were to rely on the current handful of British registered ships across the globe, we might get a rough idea of how the weather is between Dover and Calais; end of...... So we came to rely on the modern version, which is not up to the job.
My theory is that for all the satellites and modern computer generated forecasts, the accuracy has gone to pot BECAUSE......
When I was a boy (etc.. etc..) back in my Merchant Navy days in the late 70's; every British registered ship across the world, whilst at sea (rather than sitting in port) would send a detailed weather report (sent by morse code no less - ask your parents, children!) every 12 hours back to Portishead near Bristol. I remember having to report such details as wind speed/direction, cloud type and cover, rain intensity, air and sea temperature, sea state, size of swell, etc..
Then came the dismantling of the British Merchant Navy. If we were to rely on the current handful of British registered ships across the globe, we might get a rough idea of how the weather is between Dover and Calais; end of...... So we came to rely on the modern version, which is not up to the job.
