When will bike boom end?

[MisterStan]

But only 10% of them actually ride their bikes ...

Seems like a similar percentage of CC'ers who actually ride at times....

 

[w00hoo_kent]

My thing is that my commuting has moved from car and walk to car and bike, so I'm doing a lot more miles there and as a knock on from that I'm doing leisure miles but at the moment I'm too worried about bike theft to do utility miles on it and that's likely to continue. At some point the whole N+1 equation might end up with me having a pannier clad tourer thing (you know, when I've run out of sensible slots to fill and am not sufficiently far gone for a recumbent :-) ) but even then, unless security has moved on a lot in those intervening decades, I can't see myself using a bike to go shopping over driving the car.

 

[Brandane]

You are quite mistaken, the Next bikes are very popular, I see them used a lot.
By a lot I mean I see at least 3 used anytime I'm on the road myself.
On the inaugural day of the scheme I saw at least a dozen.
Mind, their use is restricted to the position of the docking stations.
Obviously they will be used less after the Games, when visitors leave and parking restrictions are lifted.

I stand corrected, as you obviously spend more time in Glasgow than I do. However, I stand by my prediction that they are a white elephant in the long run. They will either rust away or be stolen/trashed by the local yoofs before the end of the coming winter; those combination locks they are using to secure them at the docking stations don't look like much of a challenge to your average 14 year old fae the Possil!

 

[srw]

And define" has acess to". Sounds like there may be a bike near to 40% of the populace with a shoddy lock.

When I think of my neighbours in my fairly average area I simply can't believe that 42% statistic. Casual observation would tell me 10% or fewer.

My friends dad has "access to a bike" because he bought one.

Somebody probably took the numbers of bikes sold in the last ten years and divided that by the population.

They probably count 100% of the population of London as having "access to a bike" because of the Boris

Or you could take the enormous trouble to click three links and discover that...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259549/nts0608.xls
This is a national statistic so has been certified as reliable. It is produced via a detailed, in-depth questionnaire with 52,600 respondents, 45,000 or so of them adults. The actual questions asked and the methodology to process the data are freely available online. Of the 43% who own or have access to a bike, 42% own a bike and only 1% have access. The average number of trips per person per year is 24 for boys and men and 9 for girls and women, 16 overall. Which means that each of those 43% average 37 trips per year.

With a few more clicks you will discover that although the average number of bike trips per person per year has remained roughly constant at 16 or so since the mid 1990s, since 2002 the average distance travelled on a bike per person per year has increased from 36 to 53 since 2002. Unfortunately there is no time series for bike ownership.

 

[jarlrmai]

My entire team (of 2) has just bought bikes in the last week...

 

[Cycling Dan]

1 - It won't end, numbers will continue to rise then slowly plateau once most golf clubs have closed down and ever more obtuse brains fail to embrace the idea of cycling.

2 - The last bike boom (hardly a boom) ended in the 60s when cheap car ownership became possible. Even our own MatthewT has deserted his once-loved bike for the joys of motoring. He'll be back in 20 years when he realises he's become unfit and overweight.

I went with motorbikes with a CBR500 lined up and I am finding it hard to come back to cycling. Poor Allez race is just hung up in the garage like a old war trophy

 

[Gravity Aided]

Which means that roughly three quarters of the UK population do NOT live in London and the South East!

People have been riding bikes up here for well over 100 years without needing any encouragement from London!

I believe that the concept of pedaling a bicycle, and rear wheel drive of the bicycle(albeit by shafts), were invented in the North.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

I believe that the concept of pedaling a bicycle, and rear wheel drive of the bicycle(albeit by shafts), were invented in the North.

True, the bicycle was invented by Mr Kirkpatrick Macmillan of Keir Mill near Dumfries. Dumfries in fact started a Boris Bikes scheme several years ago but it hasn't caught on.

 

[Gravity Aided]

 

[Smokin Joe]

Saddle's too low.

 

[bigjim]

If we were still riding old steel frames that handle like a farm gate with downtube shifters and skinny vinyl-wrapped bars and massive gears,

Don't know what you've been riding but my old quality steel bikes handle beautifully and smooth silent DT shifters are a joy.

 

[snorri]

It's ironic that at the time when sport cycling is growing in popularity, obesity is also increasing at a shocking rate.

Not sure why you see it as "ironic". If cycling is ever to be used as a tool to fight obesity, it will be mass utility cycling and not sport cycling that will be required. Very few people continue participation in the same active sport throughout their lives, but more could be encouraged to continue the less strenuous but more regular habit of utility cycling.
I can't go along with the views you express in the second paragraph. While modern bikes may as as a result of clever marketing been successful in getting more people to buy bikes, i don't think they have been effective in keeping people cycling in the longer term. The user soon discovers that derailleur systems need regular maintenance, bikes without mudguards are not so clever in typical UK weather and the lack of chainguards results in soiled clothing and the need for more time to be spent on the messy task of chain maintenance. . The would be cyclist asks himself why his (relatively) low tech bicycle requires more time spent on maintenance than his car and eventually just dumps the bike in a corner and reverts to motor transport.

 

[Globalti]

No, most people don't even get as far as that! If I asked my colleagues, most of whom live within the town, why they don't cycle I'm sure the responses would be:

I'm not good on a bike
Too dangerous
The helmet would mess up my hair
I couldn't wear the clothes
How would I carry my stuff?
It's too far
There's nowhere to change and store the bike
I'd get wet
I'd get cold
etc.

There's the massive image problem too: recently I had the son of one of my overseas agents on the phone, who is a student in Hertfordshire, wanting my advice on buying an old BMW 3 series somebody had offered him, so that he could drive the mile to college rather than having to walk. I'm pleased to say that I managed to dissuade him, especially because he hadn't realised that he would need insurance, which would cost more than the car, not to mention the cost of running a £500 banger. When I asked him why he didn't consider buying a pushbike his shock was palpable; I almost heard him spit in disgust at the idea of him, the smart young man about town, riding a bicycle!

 

[Gravity Aided]

That's not how I felt when going to University. It was a big campus, mostly walkways, and I still thought about bringing my car. Then I saw the rules about cars and got a bike about 2 weeks into the school year. IIRC, you could have a car, but had to keep it in a lot all week and only get it out on weekends. Among other things.